Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Resources used for Consumer sections
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Casual dining bears the brunt of economic conditions
- Most chains show declines in same-store sales
- Sales growth declines in all segments but Italian shows promise
- Higher-priced steak and seafood segments suffer more
- Desirable demographics lead to higher chance for growth
- Upscale, quality positioning trumps value pricing
- Olive Garden thrives on quality and value positioning
- Ad support continues to be important in maintaining presence of mind
- Ads for Contemporary American concepts fail to stand out
- Age and household income are the greatest determinants of casual dining usage and attitudes
- Personal experience and price are most influential in restaurant selection
- Simple product claims like “fresh” work best
- Curbside pickup and delivery attract desirable demographics
Insights and Opportunities
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- Drawing in the younger diners through technology
- The internet
- Mobile technology
- Association with artists
- Organic food offerings
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- Figure 1: Number of organic menu items appearing in leading chains, by segment, Q1 2007-Q2 2008
- Asian targeting
- For price discounts, presentation matters
- Slowdown in unit expansion leads to better real estate opportunities
Fast Forward Trends
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- Trend 1: Who are the Super Influencers?
- Casual dining restaurants know who they are
- What we’ve seen
- The objective
- Trend 2: Authenticity—Less Perfect, More Human
- The challenge
- What we’ve seen
- Being human is a form of authenticity
Market Size and Forecast
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- Market size
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- Figure 2: Total U.S. system-wide sales of leading casual dining chains, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-09
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- Figure 3: Selected casual dining same-store sales, 2006-08
Competitive Context
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- Casual diners downgrading to fast casual and QSR
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- Figure 4: System-wide sales growth of casual dining, fast casual, and QSR chains, 2006-08
Segmentation Performance
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- Introduction
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- Figure 5: U.S. system-wide sales of leading casual dining chains, segmented by menu type, 2005 and 2007
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- Figure 6: Growth rates of U.S. system-wide sales of leading casual dining chains, segmented by menu type, 2006 and 2007
Segment Performance: Contemporary American
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- Crowded segment shows mixed performance
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- Figure 7: U.S. system-wide sales of leading Contemporary American casual dining chains, 2005 and 2007
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- Figure 8: U.S. system-wide units and sales per unit of leading Contemporary American casual dining chains, 2005 and 2007
Segment Performance: Italian
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- Success of segment suggests unmet demand for Italian
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- Figure 9: U.S. system-wide sales of leading Italian casual dining chains, 2005 and 2007
- Figure 10: U.S. system-wide units and sales per unit of leading Italian casual dining chains, 2005 and 2007
Segment Performance: Steakhouse
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- Outback losing share to smaller competitors
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- Figure 11: U.S. system-wide sales of leading steakhouse casual dining chains, 2005 and 2007
- Figure 12: U.S. system-wide units and sales per unit of leading steakhouse casual dining chains, 2005 and 2007
Segment Performance: Seafood
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- Red Lobster shows no unit expansion but maintains share
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- Figure 13: U.S. system-wide sales of leading seafood casual dining chains, 2005 and 2007
- Figure 14: U.S. system-wide units and sales per unit of leading seafood casual dining chains, 2005 and 2007
Segment Performance: Ethnic
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- Ethnic segment grows on unit expansion
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- Figure 15: U.S. system-wide sales of leading ethnic casual dining chains, 2005 and 2007
- Figure 16: U.S. system-wide units and sales per unit of leading ethnic casual dining chains, 2005 and 2007
Market Drivers
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- Restaurant industry in recession
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- Figure 17: Restaurant performance index: all-items, current situation, and expectations, January 2006-August 2008
- Discretionary income under attack; but upper-middle-income families feel less pain
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- Figure 18: Percentage of income spent on key consumer expenditures, by HH income quintile, 2006*
- Growth in hard times comes from key demographics
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- Figure 19: Changes in spending at casual dining restaurants, by age, July-August 2008
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- Figure 20: Changes in spending at casual dining restaurants, by HH income, July-August 2008
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- Figure 21: Changes in spending at casual dining restaurants, by race/ethnicity, July-August 2008
- Restaurants hold back from passing on full cost increases to consumer
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- Figure 22: Increases in food CPI, 2005-08
Leading Companies
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- Overview
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- Figure 23: U.S. system-wide sales of segment-leading casual dining chains, 2005 and 2007
- Trend analysis: value pricing vs. upscale positioning
Restaurant Analysis: Applebee’s
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- Figure 24: Indexed likelihood of usage for Applebee’s, by age and income, February 2007-March 2008
- Applebee’s rebrands as a “neighborhood” for broad appeal
- Unit expansion comes to a halt
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Restaurant Analysis: Chili’s
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- Figure 25: Indexed likelihood of usage for Chili’s, by age and income, February 2007-March 2008
- Re-imaging and new menu items seem to lead to recovery
- Sale of restaurants to franchisees reduces risk
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Restaurant Analysis: Outback Steakhouse
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- Figure 26: Indexed likelihood of usage for Outback Steakhouse, by gender, February 2007-March 2008
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- Figure 27: Indexed likelihood of usage for Outback Steakhouse, by age and income, February 2007-March 2008
- Despite strong brand equity, Outback joins the rest in concept redesign
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Restaurant Analysis: T.G.I. Friday’s
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- Figure 28: Indexed likelihood of usage for T.G.I. Friday’s, by age and income, February 2007-March 2008
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- Figure 29: Indexed likelihood of usage for T.G.I. Friday’s, by race/ethnicity, February 2007-March 2008
- Figure 30: Indexed likelihood of usage for T.G.I. Friday’s, by children in the household, February 2007-March 2008
- Menu expands with value-priced items
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Restaurant Analysis: Olive Garden
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- Figure 31: Indexed likelihood of usage for Olive Garden, by gender, February 2007-March 2008
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- Figure 32: Indexed likelihood of usage for Olive Garden, by age and income, February 2007-March 2008
- Concept offers upscale image at affordable prices
- Aggressive unit expansion continues
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Restaurant Analysis: Red Lobster
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- Figure 33: Indexed likelihood of usage for Red Lobster, by age and income, February 2007-March 2008
- Figure 34: Indexed likelihood of usage for Red Lobster, by race/ethnicity, February 2007-March 2008
- Menu change and website emphasize freshness of seafood
- Expansion and quality positioning expected after period of brand building
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Restaurant Analysis: P.F. Chang’s China Bistro
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- Upscale concept continues to expand menu offerings
- Higher price points suffer as customers seek out value
Innovation and Innovators
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- T.G.I. Friday’s innovates in service and promotion
- Guest recognition program
- Wireless server calls
- Contest for everyday chefs
- Video games at the table
Advertising and Promotion
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- Overview
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- Figure 35: Media expenditures for leading casual dining chains, 2006 and 2007
- Ads for Contemporary American concepts fail to stand out
- Applebee’s
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- Figure 36: Applebee’s: Ultimate Trios Appetizers, March 2008
- Figure 37: Applebee’s: Talking Apple, January 2008
- Chili’s
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- Figure 38: Chili’s: Friends in Car, January 2008
- Figure 39: Chili’s: Musical Chairs, June 2008
- T.G.I. Friday’s
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- Figure 40: T.G.I. Friday’s: Right Price, April 2008
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- Figure 41: T.G.I. Friday’s: Championship BBQ, August 2008
- Ruby Tuesday
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- Figure 42: Ruby Tuesday: Restaurant Change, August 2008
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- Figure 43: Ruby Tuesday: Wrong Demolition, August 2008
- Olive Garden offers near-fine dining at affordable prices
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- Figure 44: Olive Garden: Chef’s School, June 2008
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- Figure 45: Olive Garden: Family Tradition, July 2008
- Outback Steakhouse remains distinctly Australian
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- Figure 46: Outback Steakhouse: 20th Birthday, March 2008
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- Figure 47: Outback Steakhouse: Quick Golf Game, June 2008
- Sharper targeting from smaller seafood competitor takes aim at Red Lobster’s general appeal
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- Figure 48: Red Lobster: New Seafood Creations, May 2008
- Figure 49: Joe’s Crab Shack: $5 Appetizers, January 2008
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- Figure 50: Joe’s Crab Shack: Buckets and Beer, July 2008
- Adspend increases for value deals
Usage of Casual Dining Restaurants
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- Key points
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- Figure 51: Casual dining penetration, by gender, age, HH income and race/ethnicity, July-August 2008
Usage of Casual Dining Restaurants Brands
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- Key points
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- Figure 52: Casual dining restaurant brands’ penetration, July-August 2008
General Attitudes toward Dining Out
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- Key points
- Attitudes toward casual dining restaurants
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- Figure 53: Attitudes toward food and dining out, by HH income, July-August 2008
- Attitudes toward diet
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- Figure 54: Attitudes toward diet, by age, July-August 2008
Factors in Selecting a Restaurant
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- Key points
- Factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant
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- Figure 55: Factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, July-August 2008
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- Figure 56: Factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, by age, July-August 2008
Cuisine Types and Menu Items
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- Key points
- Cuisine type
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- Figure 57: Preferred types of cuisine, July-August 2008
- Product claims for menu items
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- Figure 58: Attractiveness of product claims for menu items, July-August 2008
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- Figure 59: Attractiveness of product claims for menu items, by age, July-August 2008
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- Figure 60: Attractiveness of product claims for menu items, by HH income, July-August 2008
Changes in Casual Restaurant Spending
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- Key points
- Changes in casual restaurant spending
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- Figure 61: Changes in spending at casual dining restaurants, by gender, July-August 2008
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- Figure 62: Changes in spending at casual dining restaurants, by age, July-August 2008
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- Figure 63: Changes in spending at casual dining restaurants, by HH income, July-August 2008
Casual Dining Features
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- Key points
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- Figure 64: Usage of casual dining features, by HH income, July-August 2008
Race/Ethnicity: Asian Dining Out Habits
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- Key points
- Race/ethnicity
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- Figure 65: Attitudes toward food and dining out, by race/ethnicity, July-August 2008
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- Figure 66: Factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, by race/ethnicity, July-August 2008
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- Figure 67: Changes in spending at casual dining restaurants, by race/ethnicity, July-August 2008
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- Figure 68: Usage of casual dining features, by race/ethnicity, July-August 2008
Custom Consumer Groups: Mom vs. Dads
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- Key points
- Gender and presence of children
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- Figure 69: Popularity of casual dining restaurant brands, by gender and presence of children, July-August 2008
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- Figure 70: Usage of casual dining features, by gender and presence of children, July-August 2008
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- Figure 71: Changes in spending at casual dining restaurants, by gender and presence of children, July-August 2008
Custom Consumer Groups: More Likely to Spend
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- Single parents and empty nesters
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- Figure 72: Changes in spending at casual dining restaurants, by marital status and presence of children, July-August 2008
- Higher-earning males
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- Figure 73: Changes in spending at casual dining restaurants, by gender and HH income, July-August 2008
Cluster Analysis
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- Conclusions
- Fresh Spenders
- Middle-of-the-Roaders
- Casual Avoiders
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- Figure 74: Casual dining clusters, July-August 2008
- Figure 75: Thinking about your attitudes in general toward food and dining out, which of the following statements do you agree with? by casual dining clusters, July-August 2008
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- Figure 76: Please tell us which, if any, of the following normally influences your decision to go to a specific casual dining restaurant? by casual dining clusters, July-August 2008
- Figure 77: Thinking about your most recent visits to a casual dining restaurant, please tell us if… by casual dining clusters, July-August 2008
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- Figure 78: Which of the following claims on a casual dining restaurant menu might persuade you to try a new menu item? by casual dining clusters, July-August 2008
- Figure 79: Which of the following claims on a casual dining restaurant menu would you pay more for? by casual dining clusters, July-August 2008
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- Figure 80: Thinking about your visits to casual dining restaurants, please tell us if you have done any of the following in the past six months… by casual dining clusters, July-August 2008
- Figure 81: Casual dining clusters by gender, July-August 2008
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- Figure 82: Casual dining clusters by age, July-August 2008
- Figure 83: Casual dining clusters by income, July-August 2008
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- Figure 84: Casual dining clusters by race, July-August 2008
- Figure 85: Casual dining clusters by Hispanic origin, July-August 2008
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Simmons usage
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- Figure 86: Casual dining penetration, by gender, age, HH income and race/ethnicity, February 2007-March 2008
- Attitudes toward diet
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- Figure 87: Attitudes toward diet, by gender, July-August 2008
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- Figure 88: Attitudes toward diet, by HH income, July-August 2008
- Factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant
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- Figure 89: Factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, by HH income, July-August 2008
- Use of casual dining features
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- Figure 90: Usage of casual dining features, by age, July-August 2008
- Attitudes toward diet and attractiveness of product claims by race/ethnicity
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- Figure 91: Attitudes toward diet, by race/ethnicity, July-August 2008
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- Figure 92: Attractiveness of product claims for menu items, by race/ethnicity, July-August 2008
Appendix: Trade Associations
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