Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Steady growth unable to keep up with rate of inflation
- Rising prices impose challenges for market
- Competition is growing for breakfast foods
- Broad range of segments comprise breakfast foods
- Supermarket sales challenged by mass merchandisers
- Factors impacting breakfast food sales
- Top two suppliers declining; growth from smaller players
- Kellogg’s Special K and Sara Lee—brands target different breakfast needs
- Innovation driven by lifestyle attitudes towards health/wellness and time
- Advertising and promotional activity
Insights and Opportunities
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- Align with comfort
- Simplify and streamline morning meal needs
- Breakfast foods for dinner, lunch or snacking
- A focus on “enhancing” breakfast foods
Fast Forward Trends
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- The Fresh Factor
- What's it about?
- What we've seen
- Implications for retail: catch up!
- Simplicity and Convenience
- What's it about?
- What we've seen
- Implications for breakfast foods
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Breakfast bread and yogurt—propelling market growth now and in future
- Egg prices skyrocket, creating a spike in sales—will it stick?
- Sales and forecast of market
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- Figure 1: Total FDMx and in-store bakery sales of breakfast foods at current prices, 2003-13
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- Figure 2: Total FDMx and in-store bakery sales of breakfast foods at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13*
- Wal-Mart sales
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Increase in dollar sales driven by price increases
- Internal competition in the breakfast foods market
- The foodservice battle for breakfast
Segment Performance—Overview
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- Key points
- Increasing egg prices cause segment sales to soar, supporting market growth
- Yogurt, cereal bars and breakfast entrées making breakfast convenient
- Sales of market, by segment
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- Figure 3: Sales of breakfast foods, segmented by type, 2006 and 2008
Segment Performance—Breakfast Breads
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- Key points
- Rebounding from low-carb fad through innovations carrying a healthy halo
- Specialty breads go mainstream, fueling growth with premium prices
- Sales and forecast of breakfast breads
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- Figure 4: Sales of breakfast breads at FDMx and ISBs, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Cereal
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- Key points
- Obstacle: everyone eats cereal; competitive products
- Sales and forecast of cereal
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- Figure 5: FDMx sales of cereal, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Sweet Breakfast Breads and Pastries
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- Key points
- Segment aims at breakfast indulgence rather than breakfast health
- Sales and forecast of sweet breakfast breads and pastries
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- Figure 6: Sales of sweet breakfast breads and pastries at FDMx and ISBs, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Eggs
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- Key points
- Egg prices rise to unprecedented levels
- Premium eggs with higher retail sales prices fuel growth
- Sales and forecast of eggs
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- Figure 7: FDMx sales of eggs, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Yogurt
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- Key points
- Convenience and health characteristics drive segment sales
- The negative association: high sugar content
- Sales and forecast of yogurt
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- Figure 8: FDMx sales of yogurt, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Breakfast Meats
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- Key points
- Limited usage opportunities; competition offers greater convenience
- Sales and forecast of breakfast meats
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- Figure 9: FDMx sales of breakfast meats, 2003-13
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Breakfast foods are a supermarket staple
- ISBs support the leading segment in the breakfast foods market
- Mass merchandiser/drug growing at the fastest rate
- Sales of market, by channel
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- Figure 10: Total FDMx and in-store bakery sales of breakfast foods, by channel, 2006 and 2008
Retail Channels—Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Opportunities to strengthen market position
- Focus on bread segment
- Focus on egg segment
- Supermarket sales of breakfast foods
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- Figure 11: U.S. supermarket sales of breakfast foods, at current prices, 2003-08
Retail Channels—In-Store Bakeries
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- Key points
- More ISB units and higher prices drive sales in ISBs
- Opportunities to regain strong growth rates
- In-store bakery sales of breakfast foods
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- Figure 12: U.S. in-store bakery sales of breakfast foods, at current prices, 2003-08
Market Drivers
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- Rising food prices drive market sales
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- Figure 13: Average retail food costs, selected products, 2000-08
- What is driving higher food prices?
- The implication for the breakfast food market
- Consumers establishing healthier eating habits
- Not skipping breakfast—“the most important meal of the day”
- Making better food choices
- Time factors impact market
- Long commute times and traffic delays
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- Figure 14: Average commuting times in select major U.S. cities, October 2006
- The answer: making the commute earlier—impacting breakfast plans
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Sara Lee and Groupe Danone reshape respective segments through innovation
- Private label offers strongest growth
- Manufacturer sales in market
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- Figure 15: Manufacturer FDMx sales of breakfast foods in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Brand Share—Breakfast Breads
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- Key points
- George Weston Bakeries supports Thomas’ brand with healthy innovations
- Sara Lee’s Soft & Smooth continues to fuel sales
- Manufacturer and brand sales of breakfast breads
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- Figure 16: Selected FDMx brand sales and market share of breakfast breads in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Brand Share—Cereal
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- Key points
- Kellogg’s Special K garners rapid growth with its adult focus
- Kid-centric high sugar cereal brands continue to grow
- Manufacturer and brand sales of cereal
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- Figure 17: Selected FDMx brand sales and market share of cereal in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Brand Share—Sweet Breakfast Breads and Pastries
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- Key points
- Kid-favorite brands, Pop-Tarts and Hostess Donettes, keep growing
- Entenmann’s and Hostess maintaining sales through on-the-go packs
- Manufacturer and brand sales of sweet breakfast breads and pastries
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- Figure 18: Selected FDMx brand sales and market share of sweet breakfast breads and pastries in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Brand Share—Eggs
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- Key points
- A move towards branded shelled eggs
- ConAgra’s Egg Beaters with Yolk targets younger consumers
- Manufacturer and brand sales of eggs
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- Figure 19: Selected FDMx brand sales and market share of eggs in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Brand Share—Yogurt
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- Key points
- Children’s yogurt brands challenged despite improving nutritional profile
- Dannon focuses on function and health; Yoplait courts dieters
- Manufacturer and brand sales of yogurt
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- Figure 20: Selected FDMx brand sales and market share of yogurt in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Brand Share—Breakfast Meats
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- Key points
- Kraft’s Oscar Mayer brand dominates
- Sara Lee seeking to broaden the reach of Jimmy Dean brand
- Manufacturer and brand sales of breakfast meats
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- Figure 21: Selected FDMx brand sales and market share of breakfast meats in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Brand Qualities
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- Kellogg’s Special K: Health, diet, convenience
- Sara Lee: Aligning traditional breakfast foods with happiness
Innovation and Innovators
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- Health and wellness
- Time
- Innovative comparisons
- Cereal and cereal bars
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- Figure 22: Top 10 cereal product launches, by product claim and year, 2003-08
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- Figure 23: Top 10 cereal bar product launches, by product claim and year, 2003-08
- Breakfast meals and breakfast proteins
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- Figure 24: Top 10 breakfast protein product launches, by product claim and year, 2003-08
- Figure 25: Top 10 breakfast meal product launches, by product claim and year, 2003-08
- Yogurt and yogurt drinks
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- Figure 26: Spoonable and drinking yogurt product launches, 2003-08
- Figure 27: Top 10 yogurt product launches, by product claim and year, 2003-08*
Advertising and Promotion
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- Overview
- Health benefits
- Diet slant
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- Figure 28: Kellogg’s Special K brand ad, 2006
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- Figure 29: Kellogg’s Special K ad “Stop skipping,” 2007
- Wellness benefits
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- Figure 30: Cheerios ad “For young and old,” 2006
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- Figure 31: Stonyfield Farms ad, “Just the good stuff,” 2008
- Touting taste
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- Figure 32: Fiber One yogurt ad, “Delicious!,” 2008
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- Figure 33: Eggland’s Best eggs ad, “A perfect marriage,” 2008
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- Figure 34: Sara Lee Bagels ad, “All day,” 2007
- New product launches
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- Figure 35: Froot Loop Straws ad, 2007
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- Figure 36: Lucky Charms ad, “The adventures continue,” 2008
- Advertising to kids: marketing cereals
Appendix: Segment Performance—Additional Segments
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- Key points
- Sales of waffles/pancakes
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- Figure 37: FDMx sales of waffles/pancakes, at current prices, 2003-08
- Sales of cereal bars
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- Figure 38: FDMx sales of cereal bars, at current prices, 2003-08
- Sales of “other” breakfast foods
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- Figure 39: FDMx sales of other breakfast foods, at current prices, 2003-08
- Sales of drinkable breakfast foods
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- Figure 40: FDMx sales of drinkable breakfast foods, at current prices, 2003-08
- Sales of breakfast entrées
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- Figure 41: FDMx sales of breakfast entrées, at current prices, 2003-08
Appendix: Brand Share—Additional Segments
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- Key points
- Manufacturer and brand sales of waffles/pancakes
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- Figure 42: Selected FDMx brand sales and market share of waffles/pancakes in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
- Manufacturer and brand sales of cereal bars
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- Figure 43: Selected FDMx brand sales and market share of cereal bars in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
- Manufacturer and brand sales of “other” breakfast foods
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- Figure 44: Selected FDMx brand sales and market share of other breakfast foods in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
- Manufacturer and brand sales of drinkable breakfast foods
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- Figure 45: Selected FDMx brand sales and market share of drinkable breakfast foods in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
- Manufacturer and brand sales of breakfast entrées
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- Figure 46: Selected FDMx brand sales and market share of breakfast entrées in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Appendix: Trade Associations
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