Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Growing sales mask real concerns
- ISB for breakfast?
- Small, local are important new trends
- Tough economy drives change
- Marketing initiatives focus on in-store
- Women, seniors prime audiences for ISBs
- Breads most popular, but sweet tooths abound
- Consumers changing behavior in the new economy
Insights and Opportunities
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- Think small
- Think local
- Consider eating in (store)
Inspire Insights
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- Dial-a-Brunch
- What we’ve seen
- Implications and thoughts
- Baker Tweet
- What we’ve seen
- Implications and thoughts
- That’s Cake, America
- What we’ve seen
- Implications and thoughts
- Snacks for a Snack Society
- What we’ve seen
- Implications and thoughts
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Stable growth slows with the recession
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- Figure 1: Number of in-store service bakeries and average weekly sales per store, 2001-08
- A changing customer base
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- Figure 2: Trended incidence of purchase at ISBs, by household income, 2005-09
- Overall sales of ISBs
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- Figure 3: Total U.S. sales and forecast of ISB products, at current prices, 2004-14
- Figure 4: Total U.S. sales and forecast of ISB products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
Competitive Context
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- The bread aisle
- Sandwich, coffee and donut shops
- C-Stores sell baked goods
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Desserts lead the category
- Strong growth for breakfast
- Sales of ISBs by segment
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- Figure 5: Sales of selected ISB products at current prices, by segment, 2007 and 2009
Segment Performance—Desserts
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- Key points
- Recession slows robust growth
- Continued opportunity in “everyday indulgences”
- ISB dessert sales
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- Figure 6: Sales of ISB desserts, at current prices, 2004-09
- Figure 7: Sales of ISB desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-09
Segment Performance—Breads and Rolls
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- Key points
- Solid growth following the Atkins trend
- Opportunity in artisan, health-oriented breads
- ISB bread and roll sales
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- Figure 8: Sales of ISB breads and rolls, at current prices, 2004-09
- Figure 9: Sales of ISB breads and rolls, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
Segment Performance—Bakery/Breakfast
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- Key points
- Hispanic sweet goods, dining at home fuel growth
- Serious dough in donuts
- ISB bakery/breakfast sales
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- Figure 10: Sales of ISB bakery/breakfast products, 2004-09
- Figure 11: Sales of ISB bakery/breakfast products, at inflation- adjusted prices, 2004-09
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Mass merchandisers and club stores pose a threat
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- Figure 12: Number of conventional supermarkets and supercenters ($2 million or more), 2003-08
- Supermarkets still currently prevail
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- Figure 13: Types of stores from which ISB purchases have been made in past year, 2007-09
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- A difficult economy
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- Figure 14: U.S. unemployment, October 2008-June 2009
- Figure 15: Disposable personal income and personal consumption, October 2009-May 2009
- The need for speed
- Growing Hispanic population
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- Figure 16: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2004-14
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- Figure 17: U.S. population ages 34 and below, by race/Hispanic origin, 2008
- Production costs remain high
Brand Qualities
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- Key points
- Costco
- Market of Choice
- Publix
- Whole Foods
Innovation and Innovators
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- Key points
- Health, gluten and the trans fats scare
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- Figure 18: New product launches of trans fat-free products, by sector 2004-09
- Figure 19: Change in new product launches of trans fat-free products, by sector, 2004-08
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- Figure 20: New product launches of gluten-free products, by sector, 2004-09
- The natural approach
- Other innovations
Advertising and Promotion
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- Key points
- In-store merchandising and displays
- Print advertising
- Online initiatives
Usage of In-store Bakeries
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- Key points
- Overall use of ISBs
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- Figure 21: Incidence of buying bread or bakery items from in-store bakery, by key demographics, May 2009
- ISBs used by type of store
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- Figure 22: Types of stores from which ISB purchases have been made in past year, by gender, May 2009
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- Figure 23: Types of stores from which ISB purchases have been made in past year, by age, May 2009
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- Figure 24: Types of stores from which ISB purchases have been made in past year, by household income, May 2009
Share of Purchases by Type of Outlet
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- Key points
- Gender bias favors ISBs
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- Figure 25: Estimated share of spend on bread and bakery products from various types of stores, by gender, May 2009
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- Figure 26: Estimated share of spend on bread and bakery products from various types of stores, by age, May 2009
- ISBs skew higher income
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- Figure 27: Estimated share of spend on bread and bakery products from various types of stores, by household income, May 2009
Incidence of Using Various Outlets for Bread and Bakery—Normal Home Consumption vs. For Special Occasions
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- Key points
- Supermarket aisle and ISBs dominate
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- Figure 28: Source of bread and other baked goods for normal home consumption, by product type, May 2009
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- Figure 29: Source of bread and other baked goods for a special event or meal, by product type, May 2009
Products Bought at ISBs
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- Key points
- Bread or roll purchase from ISBs by ingredient addition/omission
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- Figure 30: Purchase from ISB of bread or rolls with specific added, low or no ingredients, by gender, May 2009
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- Figure 31: Purchase from ISB of bread or rolls with specific added, low or no ingredients, by age, May 2009
- Types of product bought from ISB in last month
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- Figure 32: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by gender, May 2009
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- Figure 33: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by age, May 2009
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- Figure 34: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by household income, May 2009
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- Figure 35: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by number of people in household, May 2009
- ISB services and options tried or interested in
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- Figure 36: Interest in trying new or different ISB products and services, May 2009
Changes in Shopping and Eating Habits
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- Key points
- Changes in use of ISBs
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- Figure 37: Change in use of ISBs as a result of the current economic climate, by gender, May 2009
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- Figure 38: Change in use of ISBs as a result of the current economic climate, by age, May 2009
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- Figure 39: Change in use of ISBs as a result of the current economic climate, by household income, May 2009
- Changes in eating and cooking habits
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- Figure 40: Change in eating and cooking habits as a result of the current economic climate, by gender, May 2009
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- Figure 41: Change in eating and cooking habits as a result of the current economic climate, by age, May 2009
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- Figure 42: Change in eating and cooking habits as a result of the current economic climate, by household income, May 2009
- Changes in grocery bill
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- Figure 43: Change in grocery bill as a result of the current economic climate, by gender, May 2009
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- Figure 44: Change in grocery bill as a result of the current economic climate, by age, May 2009
Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin
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- Figure 45: Incidence of buying bread or bakery items from in-store bakery, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2009
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- Figure 46: Estimated share of spend on bread and bakery products from various types of stores, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2009
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- Figure 47: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2009
- Figure 48: Change in eating and cooking habits as a result of the current economic climate, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2009
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Cluster Analysis
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- Grocers
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- Specialists
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- Generalists
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristics
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- Figure 49: In-store bakery clusters, May 2009
- Figure 50: Types of stores from which ISB purchases have been made in past year, by in-store bakery clusters, May 2009
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- Figure 51: Purchase from ISB of bread or rolls with specific added, low or no ingredients, by in-store bakery clusters, May 2009
- Figure 52: Estimated share of spend on bread and bakery products from various types of stores, by in-store bakery clusters, May 2009
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- Figure 53: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by in-store bakery clusters, May 2009
- Figure 54: Change in use of ISBs as a result of the current economic climate, by in-store bakery clusters, May 2009
- Cluster demographics
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- Figure 55: In-store bakery clusters, by gender, May 2009
- Figure 56: In-store bakery clusters, by age, May 2009
- Figure 57: In-store bakery clusters, by household income, May 2009
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- Figure 58: In-store bakery clusters, by race, May 2009
- Figure 59: In-store bakery clusters, by Hispanic origin, May 2009
- Cluster methodology
Custom Consumer Groups
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- Rates of ISB purchase—kids drive sales, but not by much?
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- Figure 60: Incidence of buying bread or bakery items from in-store bakery, by gender and children, gender and age, and BMI, May 2009
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- Figure 61: Estimated share of spend on bread and bakery products from various types of stores, by marital status and presence of children, May 2009
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- Figure 62: Estimated share of spend on bread and bakery products from various types of stores, by age and gender, May 2009
- Product selection—health for grownups, treats for kids
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- Figure 63: Purchase from ISB of bread or rolls with specific added, low or no ingredients, by gender and presence of children, May 2009
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- Figure 64: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by gender and presence of children, May 2009
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- Figure 65: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by Hispanic origin and household income, May 2009
- The economy—families, women buckle down
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- Figure 66: Change in use of ISBs as a result of the current economic climate, by gender and presence of children, May 2009
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- Figure 67: Change in use of ISBs as a result of the current economic climate, by gender and age, May 2009
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- Figure 68: Change in eating and cooking habits as a result of the current economic climate, by gender and presence of children, May 2009
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 69: Purchase from ISB of bread or rolls with specific added, low or no ingredients, by household income, May 2009
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- Figure 70: Purchase from ISB of bread or rolls with specific added, low or no ingredients, by marital status, May 2009
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- Figure 71: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by gender and age, May 2009
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- Figure 72: Change in use of ISBs as a result of the current economic climate, by marital status and presence of children, May 2009
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- Figure 73: Change in grocery bill as a result of the current economic climate, by household income, May 2009
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Appendix: Trade Associations
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