Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
-
- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
-
- Casual dining market stagnates as spending bubble is burst
- Industry under pressure from both revenue and expense sides
- Leading chains turn in mixed performance as unit expansion slows
- Olive Garden remains a standout concept
- Applebee’s draws customers with appetizers and steak/burger options
- Top chains appeal most to upper middle incomes, leaving highest earners to premium concepts
- Aggressive pricing strategies threaten brand equity
- Advertising focuses on price points, some differentiate with imagery
- Innovators focus on flavors as a premium
- Casual restaurants show strongest penetration among under-35s and higher earners
- Price and proximity are key factors in restaurant selection
- Word of mouth from family and friends more important than traditional advertising
- Casual dining driven by celebrations and treating oneself
Insights and Opportunities
-
- Moving from general to specific appeal will better attract diners
- More specific targeting
-
- Figure 1: Reasons consumers eat out at casual restaurants, July 2009
- Adapting to local demographics
- Under-35s more likely to spend more
-
- Figure 2: Reasons consumers eat out at casual restaurants, by age, July 2009
Inspire Insights
-
- Inspire trend: Smart Shopping Gets Smarter
- These days, smart shopping can be its own reward.
- Supporting evidence
- Implications
- Inspire trend: Death of the Middle Ground
- Does the middle equal the mediocre?
- Implications
Market Size and Forecast
-
- Casual dining market stagnates as consumers pull back
-
- Figure 3: Total U.S. systemwide sales of casual dining chains, at current prices, 2005-13
-
- Figure 4: Total U.S. systemwide sales of casual dining chains, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-12
- Poor same-store sales performance not necessarily tied to price points
-
- Figure 5: Selected casual dining same-store sales, 2006-09
Competitive Context
-
- Away-from-home food spending returns to 2004 levels
-
- Figure 6: Share of at-home and away-from-home food spending, 2004-08
- Growth expected in lower-priced food sectors
-
- Figure 7: Trends in systemwide sales of casual dining, fast casual, and QSR chains, 2006-09
-
- Figure 8: Usage of restaurant segments in past three months, by HH income, July 2009
- Addendum: Consumer question explanation
Segment Performance
-
- Introduction
- Italian and steakhouse segments gain share while rest show sales decline
-
- Figure 9: U.S. systemwide sales of leading casual dining chains, segmented by menu type, 2006 and 2008
Segment Performance—Contemporary American
-
- Unit expansion hides greater declines in sales per unit for some segment leaders
-
- Figure 10: U.S. systemwide sales of leading contemporary American casual dining chains, 2006 and 2008
-
- Figure 11: U.S. systemwide units and sales per unit of leading contemporary American casual dining chains, 2006 and 2008
Segment Performance—Italian
-
- Olive Garden and California Pizza Kitchen show strength in concept
-
- Figure 12: U.S. systemwide sales of leading Italian casual dining chains, 2006 and 2008
- Figure 13: U.S. systemwide units and sales per unit of leading Italian casual dining chains, 2006 and 2008
Segment Performance—Steakhouse
-
- Outback continues to lose ground to rapidly expanding competitors
-
- Figure 14: U.S. systemwide sales of leading steakhouse casual dining chains, 2006 and 2008
- Figure 15: U.S. systemwide units and sales per unit of leading steakhouse casual dining chains, 2006 and 2008
Segment Performance—Seafood
-
- Red Lobster dominates but Bonefish Grill gains most share
-
- Figure 16: U.S. systemwide sales of leading seafood casual dining chains, 2006 and 2008
- Figure 17: U.S. systemwide units and sales per unit of leading seafood casual dining chains, 2006 and 2008
Segment Performance—Ethnic
-
- P.F. Chang’s pulls segment up despite declining sales per unit
-
- Figure 18: U.S. systemwide sales of leading ethnic casual dining chains, 2006 and 2008
-
- Figure 19: U.S. systemwide units and sales per unit of leading ethnic casual dining chains, 2006 and 2008
Market Drivers
-
- Restaurant industry recession continues, but the bottom may be in sight
-
- Figure 20: Restaurant Performance Index, current situation, and expectations, May 2007-July 2009
- Consumer confidence undermines willingness to spend at restaurants
-
- Figure 21: Consumer Sentiment Index, by quarter, 2001-09
- Nearly half of casual restaurant users are spending less than last year
-
- Figure 22: Casual restaurant spend compared to last year, by selected demographics, July 2009
- Rising food prices pressure restaurant margins
-
- Figure 23: Growth in food consumer price index, 2005-09
- Unit expansion will no longer drive growth in 2009
-
- Figure 24: Unit count for leading casual dining chains, 2007-09
Leading Companies
-
- Leading chains turn in mixed performance as expansion slows
-
- Figure 25: U.S. systemwide sales of segment-leading casual dining chains, 2006 and 2008
Restaurant Analysis: Applebee’s
-
- Performance summary
-
- Figure 26: Applebee’s systemwide same-store sales growth trends, 2005-09
- Core consumer groups
-
- Figure 27: Applebee’s, top demographics, February 2008-March 2009
- On the menu
-
- Figure 28: Applebee’s, top five cuisine types, Q3 2007-Q2 2009
- Figure 29: Applebee’s, selected new menu introductions, Q1 and Q2 2009
Restaurant Analysis: Chili’s
-
- Performance summary
-
- Figure 30: Chili’s systemwide same-store sales growth trends, 2006-09
- Core consumer groups
-
- Figure 31: Chili’s, top demographics, February 2008 - March 2009
- On the menu
-
- Figure 32: Chili’s, top five cuisine types, Q3 2007-Q2 2009
- Figure 33: Chili’s, selected new menu introductions, Q1 and Q2 2009
Restaurant Analysis: Outback Steakhouse
-
- Performance summary
-
- Figure 34: Outback Steakhouse’s systemwide sales growth trends, 2006-08
- Core consumer groups
-
- Figure 35: Outback Steakhouse, top demographics, February 2008 - March 2009
- On the menu
-
- Figure 36: Outback Steakhouse, top five cuisine types, Q3 2007-Q2 2009
- Figure 37: Outback Steakhouse, top five menu item dish introductions, Q1 and Q2 2009
Restaurant Analysis: Olive Garden
-
- Performance summary
-
- Figure 38: Olive Garden’s systemwide same-store sales growth trends, 2006-09
- Core consumer groups
-
- Figure 39: Olive Garden, top demographics, February 2008-March 2009
- On the menu
-
- Figure 40: Olive Garden, top cuisine types, Q3 2007-Q2 2009
- Figure 41: Olive Garden, top five menu item dish introductions, Q1 and Q2 2009
Restaurant Analysis: Red Lobster
-
- Performance summary
-
- Figure 42: Red Lobster systemwide same-store sales growth trends, 2006-09
- Core consumer groups
-
- Figure 43: Red Lobster, top demographics, February 2008-March 2009
- On the menu
-
- Figure 44: Red Lobster, top five cuisine types, Q3 2007-Q2 2009
- Figure 45: Red Lobster, top five menu item dish introductions, Q1 and Q2 2009
Restaurant Analysis: P.F. Chang’s China Bistro
-
- Performance summary
-
- Figure 46: P.F. Chang’s China Bistro systemwide same-store sales growth trends, 2007-09
- Core consumer groups
-
- Figure 47: P.F. Chang’s China Bistro, top demographics, February 2008-March 2009
- On the menu
-
- Figure 48: P.F. Chang’s China Bistro, top five cuisine types, Q3 2007-Q2 2009
- Figure 49: P.F. Chang’s China Bistro, top five menu item dish introductions, Q1 and Q2 2009
Menu Analysis: Applebee’s
-
- Appetizers and steak/burger options are key draws
-
- Figure 50: Menu ordering behavior on last visit, Applebee’s, July 2009
- Salads for women, red meat for men
-
- Figure 51: Menu ordering behavior on last visit, Applebee’s, by gender, July 2009
- Boomers may be attracted by quality steak/seafood entrées, salads, and coffee
-
- Figure 52: Menu ordering behavior on last visit, Applebee’s, by age, July 2009
Restaurant Brand Qualities
-
- Meal promotions endanger brand equity and teeter on price war
Advertising and Promotion
-
- Adspend shows impact for some but not all leading chains
-
- Figure 53: Media expenditures for leading casual dining chains, 2007-08
- Applebee’s
-
- Figure 54: Applebee’s—Realburgers, April 2009
- Chili’s
-
- Figure 55: Chili’s—Fire-Grilled Quesadillas, May 2009
- T.G.I. Friday’s
-
- Figure 56: T.G.I. Friday’s—9 New Sandwiches and Salads, April 2009
- Olive Garden
-
- Figure 57: Olive Garden—Never-Ending Pasta Bowl, August 2009
- P.F. Chang’s and Romano’s Macaroni Grill
-
- Figure 58: P.F. Chang’s—Map of China, June 2009
- Figure 59: Romano’s Macaroni Grill—Pollo Caprese, June 2009
Innovations and Innovators
-
- Exotic flavors give customers a reason not to cook for themselves
- Premium concept focuses on organic ingredients and global flavor
- Two new local concepts open mid-recession
Casual Restaurant Usage
-
- Casual restaurants show strongest penetration among under-35s and higher earners
-
- Figure 60: Eaten at a casual restaurant in past three months, by selected demographics, July 2009
- Applebee’s ranked first by both sales and surveyed popularity
-
- Figure 61: Usage of leading casual restaurant chains, July 2009
- Top chains appeal most to upper middle incomes, leaving highest earners to premium concepts
-
- Figure 62: Usage of leading casual restaurant chains, by household income, July 2009
Casual Restaurant Usage—Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin
-
- Certain chains are more frequented by racial/Hispanic minorities
-
- Figure 63: Top casual restaurant usage, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2008-March 2009
- Hispanics who speak mostly English at home more likely to use casual chains
-
- Figure 64: Top casual restaurant usage—Hispanics, by language spoken in home, February 2008-March 2009
Casual Restaurant Usage and Kids
-
- Family market important to casual restaurants but less so than for family or pizza chains
-
- Figure 65: Likelihood of children going with parents to pizza, family, and casual restaurants, July 2009
- Higher earners and Hispanics are more likely to bring children to the restaurant
-
- Figure 66: Likelihood of children going with parents to casual restaurants, by selected demographics, July 2009
Casual Restaurant Decision Influencers
-
- Price and proximity are key factors in restaurant selection
- Word of mouth from family and friends more important than traditional advertising
-
- Figure 67: Factors influencing decision to go to pizza, family, or casual restaurant, July 2009
- Females are more price-sensitive and more likely to spread the word
-
- Figure 68: Factors influencing decision to go to a casual restaurant, by gender, July 2009
- Under-35s more influenced by advertising while over-45s look for proximity
-
- Figure 69: Factors influencing decision to go to a casual restaurant, by age, July 2009
Casual Restaurants: Reasons Consumers Choose Them
-
- Casual dining driven by celebrations and treating oneself
-
- Figure 70: Reasons to eat out at pizza, family, and casual restaurants, July 2009
- 25-34s and higher earners most likely to be too busy to cook
-
- Figure 71: Reasons to eat out at casual restaurants, by age, July 2009
-
- Figure 72: Reasons to eat out at casual restaurants, by HH income, July 2009
Casual Restaurants: Usage by Daypart
-
- Casual restaurants popular for dinner but not for snacks
-
- Figure 73: Daypart for eating at pizza, family, and casual restaurants, July 2009
Casual Restaurants: Pickup and Delivery
-
- Under-35s are much more likely to use takeout services
-
- Figure 74: Ways to purchase food from casual restaurants, by age, July 2009
Cluster Analysis
-
- High Diners
- Specialists
- Infrequents
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristics
-
- Figure 75: Casual dining clusters, July 2009
- Figure 76: Casual restaurant spend compared to last year, by casual dining clusters, July 2009
-
- Figure 77: Factors influencing decision to go to a casual restauarant, by casual dining clusters, July 2009
- Figure 78: Reasons to eat out at casual restaurants, by casual dining clusters, July 2009
-
- Figure 79: Daypart for eating at a casual restaurant, by casual dining clusters, July 2009
- Figure 80: Ways to purchase food from casual restaurants, by casual dining clusters, July 2009
- Cluster demographics
-
- Figure 81: Casual dining clusters, by gender, July 2009
- Figure 82: Casual dining clusters, by age, July 2009
- Figure 83: Casual dining clusters, by houseold income, July 2009
-
- Figure 84: Casual dining clusters, by race, July 2009
- Figure 85: Casual dining clusters, by Hispanic origin, July 2009
- Cluster methodology
Appendix: Other consumer tables
-
- Coupons more of a factor for higher-income households
-
- Figure 86: Factors influencing decision to go to a casual restaurant, by HH income, July 2009
- Gender matters—a wider range of reasons
-
- Figure 87: Reasons to eat out at casual restaurants, by gender, July 2009
Appendix: Trade Associations
Back to top