Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definitions
- Hotel companies
- Abbreviations
Data Sources
Economic Outlook
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- The risk of a ‘double-dip’
- Commodity prices on the rise again
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- Figure 1: Forecasted GDP growth by region and major country, 2007-10
- Outlook for interest rates
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- Figure 2: Interest rate trend and forecast, 2007-10
- Outlook for exchange rates
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- Figure 3: Nominal exchange rates (in relation to the US dollar), 2007-10
- Outlook for spending on travel and tourism to 2019
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- Figure 4: Travel and tourism expenditure worldwide, 2009-19
Hotel Capacity by Region
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- Figure 5: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments worldwide, 2003-08
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- Figure 6: Hotel capacity worldwide, 2009
- Africa
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- Figure 7: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected African countries, 2003-07*
- Pipeline
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- Figure 8: Trend in African hotel pipeline, 2008-09
- South Africa
- Americas
- Caribbean
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- Figure 9: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected Caribbean destinations, 2003-07*
- Pipeline
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- Figure 10: Hotel construction pipeline in selected Caribbean countries, 2008
- Central & South America
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- Figure 11: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected Latin American countries, 2003-07*
- An acceleration in capacity growth over 2008-11
- Construction pipeline down 27% from peak
- Argentina
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- Figure 12: Number of tourist establishments in Argentina, by region, June 2009
- Figure 13: Number of rooms in tourist accommodation in Argentina, by region, June 2009
- Brazil
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- Figure 14: Hotels affiliated to the ABIH*, by state, 2007**
- Figure 15: Room capacity of hotels affiliated to the ABIH*, by state, ranked by number of rooms, 2007**
- North America
- Canada
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- Figure 16: Canadian hotel capacity/pipeline, by chain-scale segment, June 2008 versus June 2009
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- Figure 17: Capacity breakdown/supply and demand trends for quality hotels, by major Canadian city and province, YTD July 2009
- Mexico
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- Figure 18: Trend in the number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Mexico, 2002-07*
- Figure 19: Hotel capacity in Mexico, by grade, 2006*
- US
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- Figure 20: US hotels volume 2003-08
- Figure 21: US hotel room capacity breakdown, by class, type of hotel and size, 31 December 2008
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- Figure 22: Hotel room pipeline in the US broken down, by stage of development, August 2008 versus August 2009
- Outlook to 2011
- Growth held back by lack of financing
- Cancellations at a record high
- Pipeline overview
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- Figure 23: Supply growth* in the US hotel market, 2006-11
- Asia-Pacific
- Australia
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- Figure 24: Trend in Australian hotel capacity, December 2007-June 2009
- China
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- Figure 25: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in China, 2002-07*
- Pipeline
- Hong Kong
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- Figure 26: Hong Kong hotel room supply, 2008-13
- Macao
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- Figure 27: Macao’s hotel capacity, 2008-09
- Japan
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- Figure 28: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Japan, 2003-07*
- Thailand
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- Figure 29: Thai hotel and guesthouse capacity, by size, 2006 and 2008
- Other East Asian countries
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- Figure 30: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected East Asian countries, 2003-07*
- South Asia
- India
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- Figure 31: Trend in Indian hotel capacity, 2004-09
- Figure 32: Indian hotels, by grade, 2008
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- Figure 33: Existing and proposed new branded hotel room capacity projected to open over the period 2009-13, by major urban market and by market segment
- Pakistan and Sri Lanka
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- Figure 34: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, 2003-07*
- Europe
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- Figure 35: Chain hotel capacity in the 27 EU countries, by star grade, 2008* and 2009*
- Pipeline
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- Figure 36: Trend in European hotel pipeline, 2008-09
- Alpine region
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- Figure 37: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Austria and Switzerland, 2003-07*
- Switzerland
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- Figure 38: Hotels and health spas according to size of establishment, 2008
- Figure 39: Swiss hotel and cure establishment, by major canton, 2008
- Benelux
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- Figure 40: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Belgium and the Netherlands, 2003-07*
- Eastern Europe
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- Figure 41: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected Eastern European countries, 2003-07*
- Eastern Mediterranean
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- Figure 42: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Eastern Mediterranean countries, 2003-07*
- France
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- Figure 43: French hotels, by grade, location and affiliation at 1 January 2008
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- Figure 44: French hotel rooms, by grade, location and affiliation at 1 January 2008
- Germany
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- Figure 45: Breakdown of registered lodging capacity in Germany, July 2008
- Italy
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- Figure 46: Trend in Italy’s hotel capacity, 2004-07*
- Figure 47: Italian hotel capacity, by grade, 2007*
- Nordic area
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- Figure 48: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Nordic countries, 2003-06*
- Portugal
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- Figure 49: Portugal’s hotel capacity, by region and as a proportion of total tourist accommodation, 31 July 2007*
- Spain
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- Figure 50: Breakdown of available hotel capacity, by grade, September 2007 and September 2009
- Figure 51: Spanish lodging capacity, by principal region, September 2009
- UK
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- Figure 52: Number of hotels and similar establishments in the UK, 2004-09
- London accommodation supply
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- Figure 53: London hotel supply change, by grade, 2002-06*
- Middle East
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- Figure 54: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected Middle Eastern countries, 2003-06*
- Pipeline
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- Figure 55: Trend in Middle East hotel pipeline, 2009
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The Top Ten Chains Worldwide
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- Figure 56: The ten biggest branded hotel chain management and franchise companies worldwide, 2009
- InterContinental Hotels Group
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- Figure 57: IHG’s different business model characteristics, 2009
- Hotels by region, brand and business model
- Americas
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- Figure 58: The Americas’ hotel capacity, by business model at end 2008
- Figure 59: The Americas’ hotel capacity and pipeline, by brand at end 2008
- Expansion in the Americas
- Over half the pipeline in the Americas
- Holiday Inn and Holiday Inn Express
- Crowne Plaza and Hotel Indigo
- Extended stay and timeshare
- Expansion in Brazil
- Europe, Middle East & Africa
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- Figure 60: Europe, Middle East and Africa hotel capacity, by business model at end 2008
- Strong growth for Russia
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- Figure 61: Europe, Middle East and Africa hotel capacity and pipeline, by brand at end 2008
- Asia Pacific
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- Figure 62: Asia-Pacific hotel capacity by business model at end 2008
- Figure 63: Asia-Pacific hotel capacity and pipeline, by brand at end 2008
- IHG expansion in India
- IHG’s Indian partners
- Holiday Inn management contracts favoured
- Wyndham
- Only 26% of EBITDA comes from hotels
- Franchise structure
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- Figure 64: Wyndham Worldwide’s hotel capacity and performance, by geographical region, 31 December 2008
- Wyndham’s hotel brands
- Wyndham Hotels and Resorts
- Days Inns Worldwide
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- Figure 65: Wyndham Worldwide’s hotel capacity and performance, by brand, 31 December 2008
- Figure 66: Competitive landscape for Wyndham’s brands, 2009
- Hawthorn Suites repositioned
- Ramada expands in Canada
- 20 Ramada Encores planned for South Korea
- Ramada and Days Inn expanding in Japan
- Ramada to be Moldova’s first internationally branded hotel
- Marriott International
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- Figure 67: Marriott’s hotel capacity, by brand and business model, 2009
- A halt to timeshare development
- A permanent exit from luxury residence development
- But plans to return to timeshare eventually
- Hilton
- Hilton’s new mid-market extended-stay brand
- Hilton Garden Inn targeting 60 new hotels in 2009
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- Figure 68: Hilton Garden Inns scheduled to open outside the US in late 2009 and 2010
- Canada a hotbed of growth
- Growth through conversions
- Hilton expanding in South America
- Hampton brand adapted for local market
- Current pipeline
- New deals
- The Denizen that wasn’t
- The return of documents triggered the lawsuit
- Federal grand jury investigation
- Accor
- Accor hotel brands
- Standardised versus non-standardised
- Extended stay
- Adagio set to quadruple its room count?
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- Figure 69: Structure of Accor’s brand portfolio, 2009
- Luxury and upscale
- Sofitel legend
- So by Sofitel
- Pullman guests needn’t bring their laptops
- MGalley, ‘The art of staying’
- Midscale
- Mercure
- Suitehotel
- Economy
- Ibis
- all seasons
- Etap Hotel, Formule 1 & F1
- Motel 6
- A new build prototype for Motel 6
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- Figure 70: Accor’s hotel portfolio, by brand and geographical location, 31 December 2008
- Accor’s Brazilian partner
- A strategic partnership
- Mercure’s Asian expansion
- Accor’s expansion in Indonesia
- Accor has big plans for India
- Ibis
- Novotel
- Sofitel
- Aerocity
- Lavasa
- Pullman brand targeted
- Expansion plan in Middle East
- Accor is reducing its ownership of hotels
- 158 Formule 1s sold
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- Figure 71: Hotel portfolio, by ownership structure and brand at 31 December 2008
- Accor to become pure-play hotel company
- Choice Hotels
- Choice brands
- Choice’s US hotel portfolio
- Choice’s CRS generate a third of franchisee room revenues
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- Figure 72: Choice’s US franchise system, 2004-08
- 70% of Choice properties are conversions
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- Figure 73: Capacity and performance, by Choice brand in the US, 2004-08
- Growth focus by brand
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- Figure 74: Growth in Choice properties in the US, by brand and broken down between conversions and new-builds, 2007-08
- International operations
- Only 26,000 loyalty programme members in Europe
- Over 1,000 corporate contracts signed in 2009
- Brands targeted for expansion
- Choice’s international portfolio
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- Figure 75: Choice’s international franchise system*, 2004-08
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- Figure 76: Choice’s ex-US hotel portfolio, by brand, 2008
- Starwood Hotels & Resorts
- St Regis and the Luxury Collection
- W
- Westin
- Le Méridien
- Sheraton
- Four Points
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- Figure 77: Distinction between Sheraton and Four points, 2009
- Aloft
- Element
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- Figure 78: Starwood’s lodging capacity, by brand and type, 31 December 2008
- Half of capacity still in North America
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- Figure 79: Starwood’s hotel portfolio, by region, 31 December 2008
- The move to ‘asset-light’
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- Figure 80: Starwood’s hotel portfolio, by type of business model, 31 December 2008
- The move to fee-based earnings
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- Figure 81: Source of Starwood’s EBITDA*, by business model, 2004-08
- Starwood’s lodging portfolio by brand, region and business model
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- Figure 82: Starwood’s hotel portfolio, by brand, region and business model, 30 June 2009
- 90,000 rooms in the pipeline
- Starwood signs 50 new deals YTD in 2009
- Starwood to double China presence by 2012
- Carlson/Rezidor
- Carlson’s hotel brands
- Radisson
- Park Plaza
- Country Inns & Suites
- Park Inn
- Carlson’s lodging portfolio by brand, region and business model
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- Figure 83: Carlson’s hotel portfolio, by brand, region and business model, October 2009
- Carlson signed 23 deals in Q1/2009
- Radisson Blu
- Country Inns & Suites
- Park Inn
- Carlson plans to double China presence in three years
- Second- and third-tier cities in focus
- Rezidor
- Leases and management contracts
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- Figure 84: Rezidor hotels in operation, by region, 30 June 2008/09
- Figure 85: Rezidor rooms in operation, by region, 30 June 2008/009
- Strong growth even in a recession
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- Figure 86: Rezidor hotels and rooms in development, by brand and region at 30 June 2009
- 11 new contracts signed in Q2/2009
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- Figure 87: Rezidor’s business development, Q2/ & H1/2009
- Hyatt
- Hyatt’s brand portfolio
- Park Hyatt
- Grand Hyatt
- Hyatt Regency
- Hyatt Summerfield Suites
- Hyatt Place
- Andaz
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- Figure 88: Hyatt’s hotel portfolio, by brand and region, 2009
- Hyatt also in the timeshare business
- Hyatt has gone public
- Hyatt’s revenue down 19% in first-half 2009
- Pritzker family infighting a risk factor?
- TUI Hotels & Resorts
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- Figure 89: TUI Hotels & Resorts portfolio, 31 December 2008
- RIU
- Classic
- ClubHotel
- Palace
- Luca
- 1,000 rooms to open in Cuba
- Grupotel
- Robinson
- Iberotel
- Grecotel
- Magic Life
- Dorfhotels
- Sensimar – TUI’s new hotel concept
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The Ten Biggest Brands Worldwide
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- Figure 90: The ten biggest hotel brands worldwide, ranked by number of rooms, 2009
- Geographical spread
- Expansion into the BRICs
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- Figure 91: Top ten hotel, ranked by the number of countries in which they are present, 2009
- The ten biggest consortia worldwide
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- Figure 92: The ten biggest consortia worldwide, end 2008
- The two major consortia: Utell/Unirez and Best Western
- Best Western
- Best Western Premier
- Best Western Premier service standards
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- Figure 93: Additional service features required of Best Western Premier hotels, 2009
- Cheaper than the major chain brands
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- Figure 94: Hotel performance, by region, 2008 versus 2009*
- Asia Pacific
- Oversupply in the major urban markets
- Beijing suffering an Olympic hangover
- Will the Shanghai 2010 World Expo make a difference?
- Secondary cities faring better
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- Figure 95: Hotel performance in Asia Pacific, by selected country and major local market, 2008 versus 2009*
- Japan doing better than most
- Luxury under pressure
- Supply has grown in Tokyo
- To cut or not to cut
- Free upgrades
- Beauty classes
- But all to no avail
- Americas
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- Figure 96: Hotel performance in the Americas, by selected country/major local market, 2008 versus 2009*
- US rates down 17% in H1/2009
- Vegas edges out New York
- Europe
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- Figure 97: Hotel performance in Europe, by selected country and major local market, 2008 versus 2009*
- Germany outperforming
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- Figure 98: Hotel performance, by major German city, 2008 versus 2009*
- Growing leisure trade
- Central & Eastern Europe
- Bratislava
- Bucharest
- Budapest
- Prague
- Vienna
- Warsaw
- Supply finally catching up with demand in Russia
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- Figure 99: Hotel performance in Moscow and St Petersburg, 2008 versus 2009*
- Middle East & Africa
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- Figure 100: Hotel performance in Middle East/Africa, by selected country and major local market, 2008 versus 2009*
- Dubai RevPAR to drop by at least 25%
- Falling hotel values
- Hotel values down 50% in the US
- Hotel values down by between 20% and 60% in Europe
- ‘Cap rates’ soaring
- Falling revenues
- The liquidity squeeze
- Mostly small deals
- Leases, profit guarantees and crashing multiples
- Banks have retrenched
- Position in the property market
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Hotel Chain and Property Management, Restructuring, Mergers and Acquisitions
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- Financial distress
- Three major chains in default
- Golden Tulip declares voluntary bankruptcy
- Tripped up by lease contracts?
- Golden Tulip was a management buyout
- The bankruptcy’s second stage
- Golden Tulip acquired by Starwood Capital
- Golden Tulip complements Starwood Capital’s portfolio
- Looking to the future
- 15% growth is targeted
- Extended Stay Hotels in Chapter 11
- Extended Stay financed by CMBS
- Senior debt holders offered a new package
- No plans to shrink capacity
- Red Roof Inn defaults on US$367-million mortgage debt
- Hotel mortgages jeopardise CMBS ratings in the US
- 1,060 distressed hotels in the US
- CMBS contain 5-15% of hotel debt
- Huge wave of maturities in 2010
- Lenders do not really want to foreclose
- Industry close to ‘capitulation’
- Defaults up 125% in California
- Recently financed hotels particularly vulnerable
- St Regis Monarch Beach foreclosed
- Bay Area hotels hit hard
- US$2.8 billion invested in 2005-07
- More defaults to follow
- Luxury hotels vulnerable
- The vultures are circling
- Bargains are cropping up
- alltours buying hotels
- A global phenomenon?
- Bulgaria – 300 hotels into foreclosure?
- Norway – 25 hotels bankrupt
Trends in Distribution
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- Figure 101: Breakdown of online reservations, by channel for the overall hotel industry in the US, 2003-10
- Trend in major chain distribution channels
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- Figure 102: Share of bookings, by CRS* channel for 30 major chains worldwide, 2006-09
- Figure 103: Internet source breakdown for major hotel brands, 2006-09
- The ‘merchant model’
- How does the MM work?
- Inventory management
- MM conditions
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- Figure 104: Typical merchant model conditions for major online travel agents, 2009
- Is Expedia trying to squeeze hoteliers?
- Expedia pulled Choice’s inventory
- Expedia accounts for 3% of Choice bookings
- ‘Take it or leave it’
- Choice’s action plan
- Finally an agreement in the last hour
- Best Western voices support for Choice
- Hotels the ‘Golden Goose’ of the OTAs
- Revenue from air travel drying up
- Hotels generate 60% of OTA fees
- Dynamic packaging
- Other revenue sources of minor importance
- The bottom line
- Small groups and independents particularly vulnerable
- Trends in spending by hotels on web-marketing
- The Third Benchmark Survey on Hotel Internet Marketing
- Key findings
- Sources of bookings
- Budgeting for hotel Internet marketing in a recession
- How money spent is correlated to expected return
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- Figure 105: Breakdown of Internet marketing expenditure, 2006-09
- Figure 106: What hoteliers believe are the highest return Internet marketing strategies, 2007-09
- Outlook for social media
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- Figure 107: Web 2.0 initiatives planned for 2009 compared to 2008
- Hotels can tweet too
- Promotion through wacky offers
- A steep discount, but no bed
- ‘Retweeting’ can spread the word fast
- A mass communication tool
- Many uses
- Soliciting customer advice
- Follow customers’ opinions in real time
- @HyattConcierge
- The bottom line?
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Spas and Wellness
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- Figure 108: Summary of key hotel spa benchmark ratios, by major region, 2008
- American spas most efficient
- 38% of hotel spa visits from non-residents
- Luxury hotel spa trends
- Average prices rose by 25% in 18 months
- Retail doing better, however
- Salon services trending down
- Room rate followed spa revenue trend
- Marriott launches 'mini-treatments'
- So SPA at Sofitel London St James
- So SPA at Sofitel Marseille Vieux Port
- Six more openings on the drawing board
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What Next?
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- A murky outlook for business travel
- Leisure leads the way
- US RevPAR to grow again only in 2011
- 2011 RevPAR growth seen at 7.3%
- Luxury taking the biggest hit
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- Figure 109: Forecasted year-on-year percentage change in RevPAR*, by US hotel chain scale, 2009-10
- Midscale w/o F & B resisting best
- Will Hilton be broken up?
- More consolidation ahead?
- NH acquires Hesperia
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