Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- In a nutshell: a stagnant market with a slow growth outlook
- Fruit juice suffers from the recession and decline in market-leading brands
- Fruit drinks stable and benefit from recession
- Supermarkets command more than half of all market sales but exhibit decline in market share
- Top suppliers account for nearly 60% of total sales, but lose share to private labels
- Can coconut water revive the ailing juice/drinks market?
Insights and Opportunities—A Market-centric View
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- Position 100% juice beyond its nutritional platform to compete effectively with other beverages
- Water-diluted juices/drinks positioned as thirst quenchers
- Coconut water as a replacement for sports drinks
- Carbonated and sparkling juices—a healthy alternative to soda
- Thinking beyond the breakfast table
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- Figure 1: Breakfast habits, June 2009
- Commute pressures likely determine breakfast habits
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- Figure 2: Average commuting times in select major U.S. cities, October 2006
- Opportunity to target commuters, breakfast eaters on the go and at work
Inspire Trends
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- Too many brands and extensions create confusion and burden
- What’s it about?
- What we have seen
- Implication for fruit juice/drinks category
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Sales and forecast of fruit juice and juice drinks
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- Figure 3: Total U.S. sales and forecast of fruit juice and juice drinks, at current prices, 2004-14
- Figure 4: Total U.S. sales and forecast of fruit juice and juice drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
- Walmart sales
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Competition from categories within the retail space
- Fruit juice and drinks experience internal competition
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- Figure 5: Fruit juice and juice drinks price comparison* in FDMx, 2004-09
- External competition from other non-alcoholic beverages heats up
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- Figure 6: Top flavor claims in new carbonated products, 2009
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- Figure 7: Top flavor claims in new RTD tea products, 2009
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- Figure 8: Top flavor claims in new flavored water products, 2009
- Fresh fruits perceived as a better choice over juice
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Fruit juice tops dollar sales; juice drinks score in volume
- Consumer choice influenced more from economy rather than health
- Total sales and forecast of fruit juice and juice drinks, by segment
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- Figure 9: U.S. sales and forecast of fruit juice and juice drinks, at current prices, by segment, 2004-14
- Figure 10: U.S. sales of fruit juice and juice drinks, by segment, 2007 and 2009
Segment Performance—Fruit Juice
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- Key points
- Total sales
- Recession-torn consumers look for cheaper alternatives; private labels and juice drinks gain share
- Super-premium juices turn in mixed performance
- Total sales and forecast of fruit juice
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- Figure 11: U.S. sales and forecast of fruit juice, 2004-14
- FDMx sales
- Bottled and aseptic juices gain on price inflation; fruit juice demand to grow for value-priced brands
- One brand topples refrigerated juice; private labels wield influence
- Canned juices too expensive; frozen juice inconvenient
- FDMx sales of fruit juice by form
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- Figure 12: FDMx dollar sales of fruit juice, by form, 2007 and 2009
- Figure 13: FDMx volume sales of fruit juice, by select form, 2007 and 2009
- Orange juice continues to fall out of favor; apple, grape, and cranberry flavors on the rise
- FDMx sales of fruit juice by flavor
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- Figure 14: FDMx sales of fruit juice, by flavor*, 2007 and 2009
Segment Performance—Juice Drinks
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- Key points
- Total sales
- Total sales and forecast of juice drinks
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- Figure 15: U.S. sales and forecast of juice drinks, 2004-14
- Bottled fruit drinks decline, aseptic juice drinks benefit from innovation
- Functional juice drinks in refrigerated format proliferate and are successful
- FDMx sales of fruit drinks by form
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- Figure 16: FDMx sales of juice drinks, by form, 2007 and 2009
- Cranberry is the top flavor in juice drinks
- FDMx sales of fruit drinks by flavor
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- Figure 17: FDMx sales of juice drinks, by flavor*, 2007 and 2009
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarkets lose share to mass and other
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- Figure 18: U.S. sales of fruit juice and juice drinks, by retail channel, 2007 and 2009
Retail Channels—Supermarkets
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- Pricing dilemma obstacle in growth
- Simplifying the juice/drinks aisle
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- Figure 19: U.S. sales of fruit juice and juice drinks at supermarkets, 2004-09
Retail Channels—Mass and Other
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- Mass merchandisers looking to get fast-moving items as consumers stick to basics
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- Figure 20: U.S. sales of fruit juice and juice drinks at mass merchandisers and other stores, 2004-09
Retail Channels—Natural Channel
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- Natural channel/SPINS
- Sales of fruit juices in the natural channel
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- Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of fruit juices, at current prices, 2007-09
- Figure 22: Natural supermarket sales of fruit juices, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-09
- Natural channel sales by segment
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- Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of fruit juices, by segment, 2007 and 2009
- Brand table: Juices
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- Figure 24: Manufacturer and brand natural supermarket sales of fruit juices, 2007 and 2009
- Natural channel sales of juices by organic/non-organic
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- Figure 25: Natural supermarket sales of fruit juices, by organic/non-organic, 2007 and 2009
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- The number of adults watching their diets appears to have reached its high, but is still substantial
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- Figure 26: Incidence of presently watching/controlling diet, May 2004-June 2009
- Adults watching their diet seek low-fat, low-sugar food products
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- Figure 27: Attributes diet watchers look for in food, 2006 and 2009
- Adult obesity levels in the U.S. stabilize but still remain a cause of concern
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- Figure 28: Age-adjusted prevalence of being overweight, obese, or extremely obese, among adults aged 20 or older, 1988-2006
- Consumer and government concerns for obesity-related issues spell negative outlook for juice industry
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- Figure 29: Reasons for watching/controlling diet, 2006 and 2009
- Number of obese children and teens increases at an alarming rate in the U.S.
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- Figure 30: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents, 2-19 years of age, 1976-2006
- High-fructose corn syrup alienates consumers
- Households with children impact fruit juice and juice drinks sales
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- Figure 31: Households, by presence of children, 1998-2008
- Kids’ population growth offers better prospects for 2009-14 period
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- Figure 32: Population of kids aged 6-11, 2004-14
- Teen population to remain flat; need to work on frequency growth
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- Figure 33: Teen population, 2004-14
- Black and Hispanic population projections offer growth potential for the market
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- Figure 34: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2004-14
- Recession constricts household spending on fruit juice and juice drinks
Companies and Brands
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- Key points
- Coca-Cola and PepsiCo top players, but position threatened by growing competition
- Kraft, Ocean Spray, and Dr Pepper Snapple Group make small gains
- Private labels take away share from top and small manufacturers
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- Figure 35: FDMx fruit juice and juice drink sales of leading companies, 2008 and 2009
Brand Share—Fruit Juice
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- Key points
- Tropicana and Minute Maid—the two iconic juice brands, on the decline
- Coca-Cola grows “Simply” concept into more flavors and blends
- Naked and Odwalla disappoint; face growing competition
- Nestlé declines first time in five years—recession to blame
- Private labels gain—benefit from recession and innovation
- Some brands shine on the strength of innovation
- Manufacturer and brand shares
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- Figure 36: FDMx brand sales of fruit juice in the U.S., part 1, 2008 and 2009
- Figure 37: FDMx brand sales of fruit juice in the U.S., part 2, 2008 and 2009
Brand Share—Juice Drinks
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- Key points
- Kraft garners small growth on the strength of Kool-Aid and Capri-Sun
- Simply Citrus and Fuze contribute growth to Coca-Cola portfolio
- Diet cranberry drinks keep Ocean Spray strong
- Hawaiian Punch and Mott’s for Tots shine for Dr Pepper Snapple group
- PepsiCo’s innovation Trop50 rakes in good sales
- Sunny D and Tampico decline
- New brands with “functional” touch thrive
- Manufacturer and brand shares
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- Figure 38: FDMx brand sales of juice drinks in the U.S., part 1, 2008 and 2009
- Figure 39: FDMx brand sales of juice drinks in the U.S., part 2, 2008 and 2009
Brand Qualities
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- Tropicana and Minute Maid: line and brand extensions stretched too thin
- Simply Orange thrives on consistency and honesty
- Vita Coco: from an idea to a multimillion-dollar brand in five years
Innovation and Innovators
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- Pace of new product launch declines considerably in 2009
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- Figure 40: Number of new product launches in juice and juice drinks, by juice, juice drinks and nectars, 2004-09
- Private label new product launch remains strong and on trend
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- Figure 41: Number of new product launches in juice and juice drinks, by private label and non-private label, 2005-09
- Product purity and environmentally friendly packaging among top claims
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- Figure 42: Top ten claims in fruit juice new product launches, 2005-09
- Figure 43: Top ten claims in juice drinks new product launches, 2005-09
- Functional claims in new juice/drinks nearly quadruple during 2007-09
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- Figure 44: Functional claims in juice and juice drinks new product launches, 2007 and 2009
- Immunity through antioxidants
- Cardiovascular claims grow but not in sales
- Digestive claims take a stride
- Other functional claims take diverse positioning
- Fruit and vegetable juice combination continues to attract new players
- Fruit in a bottle trend initiates
- Trends in specifically children-targeted fruit juice and juice drinks
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- Figure 45: Number of new fruit juice/drinks targeted to children and teens, 2005-09
Advertising and Promotion
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- Marketers build ads on usual themes; miss economy punch line
- Functional attributes—marketers target both adults and kids through diverse claims
- Ocean Spray Cranergy—humor, heritage, and function
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- Figure 46: Ocean Spray Cranergy, television ad, 2009
- Nestlé Juicy Juice Brain Development—touches upon emotions of moms
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- Figure 47: Nestlé Juicy Juice Brain Development, television ad, 2009
- Mott’s—old juice but new celebrity face
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- Figure 48: Mott’s Apple Juice, television ad, 2009
- New product ads impress in 2009
- Trop50—Kyra Sedgwick is the face for Tropicana’s new launch
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- Figure 49: Tropicana Trop50, television ad, 2009
- Sunny D Smoothie—strikes a chord with parents on nutritional profile
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- Figure 50: Sunny D Smoothies, television ad, 2009
- Fruit2day—a whole new way to eat fruit
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- Figure 51: Fruit2day Fruit Juice, television ad, 2009
IRI/Builders Panel Data: Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Refrigerated juices: key household purchase measures
- Overview of refrigerated juices
- Refrigerated orange juice—consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 52: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated orange juice, buying rate by household penetration, 2009*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 53: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated orange juice, by household penetration, 2009*
- Refrigerated fruit drinks: Consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 54: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated fruit drink, buying rate by household penetration, 2009*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 55: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated fruit drink, by household penetration, 2009*
- Refrigerated blended fruit juices
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—refrigerated blended fruit juices
- Brand map
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- Figure 56: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated blended fruit juice, buying rate by household penetration, 2009*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 57: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated blended fruit juice, by household penetration, 2009*
- Shelf-stable bottled juices—key household purchase measures
- Overview of SS bottled juices
- Shelf-stable bottled fruit drinks—consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 58: Brand map, selected brands of SS bottled fruit drinks, buying rate by household penetration, 2009*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 59: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS bottled juices, by household penetration, 2009*
- SS bottled cranberry cocktail/juice drink—Consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 60: Brand map, selected brands of SS bottled cranberry cocktail juice/drink, buying rate by household penetration, 2009*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 61: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS bottled cranberry cocktail juice/drink, by household penetration, 2009*
- Shelf-stable bottled apple juice—consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 62: Brand map, selected brands of SS bottled apple juice, buying rate by household penetration, 2009*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 63: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS bottled apple juice, by household penetration, 2009*
- Shelf-stable canned juices/drinks—key household purchase measures
- Overview of SS canned juices
- Shelf-stable canned juice drinks: consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 64: Brand map, selected brands of SS canned juice drinks, buying rate by household penetration, 2009*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 65: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS canned juice drinks, by household penetration, 2009*
- Shelf-stable canned fruit juice—consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 66: Brand map, selected brands of SS canned fruit juice, buying rate by household penetration, 2009*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 67: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS canned fruit juice, by household penetration, 2009*
Appendix: IRI/Builders Panel Data Definitions
Appendix: Trade Associations
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