Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Robust growth since 2006 continues through economic downturn
- ISB segment performance led by desserts
- Many opportunities for ISBs to attract new customers
- Higher commodity prices likely to hurt ISBs
- ISB competition comes from a variety of sources
- Some retailers setting themselves apart
- Nearly three fourths of shoppers have purchased at ISBs in last month
Insights and Opportunities
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- Get consumers in the door first, by whatever means possible
- ISBs can capitalize by emphasizing the fun factor
- Openly courting Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 1: Amount spent on groceries in average week by race/Hispanic origin, February 2009-March 2010
- Baking with the “enemy”
- Branching out into new segments
- Kosher
- Gluten-free and sugar-free products
- Pie is the new cupcake
- Tiny treats
Inspire Insights
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- Trend: Premiumization and Indulgence
- Trend: Carnivore, Herbivore...Locavore
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Healthy sales growth for ISBs
- Sales and forecast of ISBs
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- Figure 2: U.S. retail* sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2006-16
- Figure 3: U.S. retail* sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
- Number of ISBs and average weekly sales
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- Figure 4: Number of ISBs and average weekly sales per store*, 2006-11
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 5: U.S. retail* sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, 2006-16
Market Drivers
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- Higher commodity prices impacting costs
- Increasing Hispanic population will have positive impact on ISBs
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- Figure 6: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- “Grocery aisle” manufacturers becoming more nimble
- QSRs stepping up their offerings
- Homebaked goods and stand-alone bakeries still play a large role
- Young adults and large households eat a variety of baked goods
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- Figure 7: Bread and baked good household usage, by age, February 2010-March 2011
- Figure 8: Bread and baked good household usage, by household size, February 2010-March 2011
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- ISB desserts account for roughly half the market
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- Figure 9: U.S. retail* ISB sales, by segment, 2009-11
Segment Performance—Desserts
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- Key points
- Dessert sales growth continues, albeit at a slower pace
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- Figure 10: U.S. retail* ISB sales of desserts, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Bread and Rolls
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- Key points
- Breads and rolls benefit from being viewed as a staple
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- Figure 11: U.S. retail* ISB sales of bread and rolls, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Breakfast Bakery
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- Key points
- Breakfast bakery items, especially doughnuts, hold their own
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- Figure 12: U.S. retail* ISB sales of breakfast bakery products, 2006-16
Marketing Strategies
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- Key points
- Some stores taking it up a notch
- Regional differences lead to different marketing approaches
- Stores tailoring their assortment to reflect demographics
- Other ways that supermarkets can drive sales to ISBs
Bakery and ISB Usage
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- Key points
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- Figure 13: Shopping role in household, by gender, June 2011
- Relatively high incidence of bakery and ISB usage
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- Figure 14: Bakery and ISB usage and purchase frequency, June 2011
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- Figure 15: Bakery and ISB usage and purchase frequency, by age, June 2011
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- Figure 16: Bakery and ISB usage and purchase frequency, by household income, June 2011
- Italian or French bread the most frequent purchases at ISBs
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- Figure 17: ISB purchases, by bakery item type, by age, June 2011
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- Figure 18: ISB purchases, by bakery item type, by household income, June 2011
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- Figure 19: ISB purchases, by bakery item type, by household size, June 2011
ISB Shopping and Purchase Occasions
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- Key points
- Supermarkets lead the pack by a substantial margin
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- Figure 20: Types of stores where consumers buy ISB items, by age, June 2011
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- Figure 21: Types of stores where consumers buy ISB items, by household income, June 2011
- Purchasing behavior varies greatly depending on ISB item
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- Figure 22: Where consumers buy ISB items for home consumption, by bakery item type, by age, June 2011
- The impetus for buying ISB baked goods varies dependent on age
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- Figure 23: Bakery item purchase occasions, by age, June 2011
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- Figure 24: Bakery item purchase occasions, by household income, June 2011
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- Figure 25: Bakery item purchase occasions, by household size, June 2011
Reasons for Shopping at ISBs
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- Key points
- Fresher products draw ISB users
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- Figure 26: Reasons for shopping at ISBs, by age, June 2011
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- Figure 27: Reasons for shopping at ISBs, by household income, June 2011
ISB Products/Services of Importance
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- Key points
- ISBs should hone in on one freshness factor—“made on-site from scratch”
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- Figure 28: Products and services that consumers use, like, or would like from local ISB, June 2011
- Certain amenities more important to younger ISB users
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- Figure 29: Products and services that are important to get from local ISB, by age, June 2011
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- Figure 30: Products and services that are important from local ISB, by household size, June 2011
- The ISB “wish list”
- ISB users looking for special deals for frequent customers
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- Figure 31: ISB products and services that consumers desire, by age, June 2011
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- Figure 32: ISB products and services that consumers desire, by household income, June 2011
Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Blacks and Hispanics over index on recent ISB usage
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- Figure 33: Bakery and ISB usage and purchase frequency, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2011
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- Figure 34: Types of stores where consumers buy ISB items, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2011
- Figure 35: Reasons for shopping at ISBs, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2011
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- Figure 36: Products and services that are important from local ISB, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2011
Cluster Analysis
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- Bakery Lovers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Fresh Treaters
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Tasteless Values
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristic tables
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- Figure 37: In-store bakery clusters, June 2011
- Figure 38: Bakery purchases by in-store bakery clusters, June 2011
- Figure 39: Bakery item purchase occasions by in-store bakery clusters, June 2011
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- Figure 40: Reasons for shopping at ISBs by in-store bakery clusters, June 2011
- Cluster demographic tables
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- Figure 41: In-store bakery clusters by gender, June 2011
- Figure 42: In-store bakery clusters by age, June 2011
- Figure 43: In-store bakery clusters by household income, June 2011
- Figure 44: In-store bakery clusters by race, June 2011
- Figure 45: In-store bakery clusters by Hispanic origin, June 2011
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- Figure 46: In-store bakery clusters by presence of children in household, June 2011
- Cluster methodology
Custom Consumer Groups
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- Key points
- Usage and attitudes among recent, occasional, and infrequent/nonusers
- ISB purchases, by bakery item type
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- Figure 47: ISB purchases, by bakery item type, by custom consumer groups, June 2011
- Types of stores where consumers buy ISB items
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- Figure 48: Types of stores where consumers buy ISB items, by custom consumer groups, June 2011
- Reasons for shopping at ISBs
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- Figure 49: Reasons for shopping at ISBs, by custom consumer groups, June 2011
- Products and services that are important to consumers
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- Figure 50: Products and services that are important, by custom consumer groups, June 2011
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- Figure 51: ISB products and services that consumers desire, by custom consumer groups, June 2011
Appendix—Trade Associations
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