Table of Contents
Introduction
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- ONS data and definitions
- Financial definitions
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Tough times
- Food retailers
- Forecast
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- Figure 1: Food retailers’ sales, 2006-16
- The big get bigger
- Competition – smoke and mirrors
- Online
- Non-foods and services
- The consumer
- Customer profiles
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- Figure 2: UK: Profile of primary shoppers of main supermarkets, August 2011
- What drives store choice?
- Supermarkets and the recession
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- Figure 3: Consumers: “How do you feel about your finances?”, by supermarkets used, July 2011
- Consumers and the recession
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- Figure 4: Consumer attitudes towards grocery shopping, August 2011
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Brands
- Leading retailers
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- Figure 5: Channels of distribution for food and drink, 2010 (est)
- Figure 6: Top 5 food retailers, Market share, 2010
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- What size store?
- The superstore – discounter dynamic
- Appearance or reality?
- To take some recent examples:
- The end of the line for loyalty cards?
- Building trust
Future Opportunities
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- Survival Skills
- Guiding Choice
Who’s Innovating?
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- Shopping experience
- Specialist skills on show
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- Figure 7: Marks & Spencer (food): High Street, Kensington, store
- Inspire trend: Experience Is All
- Self-scanning
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- Figure 8: Tesco shopping wall in South Korea
- Asda supermarket
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- Figure 9: Asda Supermarket, Harrow
- Broadening the offer
- International brands
- Moves into food service
- Promotions
- Checkout coupons
- Pre-pay discounts
- Inspire trend: Let’s Make A Deal
The Market: Economic Background
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- Key points
- Population forecast
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- Figure 10: UK: Over 65s as % total UK population, 1991-2020
- The economy
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- Figure 11: UK: Quarterly GDP growth, 1991-2011 (Q3)
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- Figure 12: UK: GfK NOP Consumer confidence index, January 2007-October 2011
- Inflation
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- Figure 13: Inflation in food and other major categories, 2006-11 (Sept)
- Figure 14: Percentage change in Retail Prices Index vs Earnings, 2008-11
The Market: Consumer Spending on Groceries
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- Key points
- Food spending in context
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- Figure 15: UK: Consumer spending on selected major food categories, 2006-10
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- Figure 16: UK: Comparison of spending on food and other major categories, 2006-10
- Food vs all consumer spend
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- Figure 17: Spending on food and drink as % all consumer spending, 2006-11
- Food vs eating out
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- Figure 18: Spending on food relative to spending on eating out, 2005-10
The Market: Food Retailers’ Product Mix
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- Product mix
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- Figure 19: UK: Food retailers, product mix, 2010 (est)
The Market: Sector Sales and Forecast
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-
- Figure 20: Food retailers’ sales* at current and constant prices, 2006-16
- Figure 21: Food retailers’ sales, 2006-16
- Forecast methodology
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The Retailers: Channels of Distribution
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- Key points
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- Figure 22: Food, drink and tobacco – channels of distribution, 2010 (est)
The Retailers: Leading Retailers
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- Key points
- A tough climate
- Quality counts
- Hard discounters and Iceland
- Convenience stores
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- Figure 23: UK: Leading Food Retailers, 2010/11
The Retailers: Market Shares
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- Key points
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- Figure 24: Leading UK food retailers, estimated non-retail share of sales, 2009 and 2010
- Figure 25: Leading UK food retailers’ market shares as share of all food retail specialists’ sales, 2009 and 2010
The Retailers: Online
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- Key points
- Who shops online?
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- Figure 26: Proportion of adult population shopping online, 2003-11 (July)
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- Figure 27: Online groceries: Age profile of shoppers, 2006 and 2011
- Figure 28: Internet penetration, 2001-11
- Major players
- Market size
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- Figure 29: UK: Food retailers’ Online sales, 2009-11(est)
- Internet usage
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- Figure 30: UK: Top 20 transactional food and drink websites, by number of visits, August 2011
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- Figure 31: UK: Growth in unique visitor numbers year-on-year for the top 5 transactional food and drink websites, January 2010-September 2011
The Retailers: Advertising and Promotion
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- Key points
- Strong growth in ad spend
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- Figure 32: Main media advertising spend, by leading grocery retailers, 2007-10
- Spending relative to turnover
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- Figure 33: Leading grocers’ advertising spending as % of turnover, 2007-10
- Spending by media
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- Figure 34: Leading grocers’ main media advertising distribution, by media, 2010
- Advertising content
The Consumer: Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 35: Attitudes towards and usage of food retail brands, August 2011
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 36: Attitudes by food retail brand, August 2011
- Brand personality
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- Figure 37: Food retail brand personality – macro image, August 2011
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- Figure 38: Food retail brand personality – micro image, August 2011
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand experience
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- Figure 39: Food retail brand usage, August 2011
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- Figure 40: Satisfaction with various food retail brands, August 2011
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- Figure 41: Consideration of food retail brands, August 2011
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- Figure 42: Consumer perceptions of current food retail brand performance, August 2011
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- Figure 43: Food retail brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, August 2011
- Brand index
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- Figure 44: Food retail brand index, August 2011
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- Figure 45: Food retail brand index vs. recommendation, August 2011
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 46: Target groups, August 2011
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- Figure 47: Food retail brand usage, by target groups, August 2011
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- Figure 48: Food retail brand usage, by target groups, August 2011
- Group One – Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – Individualists
The Consumer – Who Shops Where?
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- Key points
- Primary shoppers
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- Figure 49: Usage of outlets for main grocery shop, August 2011
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- Figure 50: UK: Profile of primary shoppers of main supermarkets, August 2011
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- Figure 51: UK: Profile of primary shoppers of main supermarkets, 2006 and 2011
- Secondary shoppers
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- Figure 52: Usage of supermarkets for top up shop, August 2011
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- Figure 53: UK: Profile of secondary shoppers, August 2011
- Store usage 2006-11
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- Figure 54: Usage of superstores for primary shopping trips, 2006 and 2011
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- Figure 55: Usage of stores for secondary shopping trips, 2006 and 2011
- Type of stores used
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- Figure 56: Great Britain: Shops used regularly/occasionally, 2009 and 2010
The Consumer – The Key Factors For Choosing A Store
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- Key points
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- Figure 57: Aspects most important when you do your main grocery shop, August 2011
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- Figure 58: Usage of outlets for main shop, by aspects most important when you do your main grocery shop, August 2011
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- Figure 59: Aspects most important when you do your main grocery shop, by usage of supermarkets for main shop, August 2011
- Factors in choosing a supermarket
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- Figure 60: Deciding factors in shopping for food, drink and household products, GB, 2010
The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Grocery Shopping
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- Key points
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- Figure 61: Consumer attitudes towards grocery shopping, August 2011
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- Figure 62: Profile of consumers with particular attitudes, August 2011
- Attitudes vs shops used
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- Figure 63: Consumer attitudes towards grocery shopping, by usage of supermarkets for main shop, August 2011
Aldi (UK)
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- Strategic evaluation
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- Figure 65: Aldi: Stores per million capita in selected European countries, 2010
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 66: Aldi (Europe): Group sales performance, 2006-10
- Figure 67: Aldi (Europe): Outlet data, 2006-10
- Store format
- Consumer profile
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- Figure 68: Aldi: Primary shoppers, by gender, age and socio-economic group, August 2011
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- Figure 69: Aldi: Primary shoppers, by region and acorn group, August 2011
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- Figure 70: Aldi Secondary Shoppers – socio-demographic profile, August 2011
- Figure 71: Aldi: Secondary shoppers, by region and acorn group, August 2011
- Retail offering
- E-commerce and home shopping
Asda Group
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- Strategic evaluation
- Sales development lags behind its rivals
- Discounter danger
- Smaller stores, bigger expansion potential
- Prospects
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 73: Asda Group Ltd: Group financial performance, 2006-10
- Figure 74: Asda Group Ltd: Outlet data, 2006-10
- Store formats
- Smaller stores
- Customer profile
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- Figure 75: Asda: Primary shoppers, by gender, age and socio-economic group, August 2011
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- Figure 76: Asda: Primary shoppers, by region and acorn group, August 2011
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- Figure 77: Asda Secondary Shoppers – socio-demographic profile, August 2011
- Figure 78: Asda: Secondary shoppers, by region and acorn group, August 2011
- Retail offering
- e-commerce and home shopping
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- Figure 79: Asda.co.uk: Online consumer demographics, three month average to August 2011
Co-operative Group (Food)
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- Strategic evaluation
- The new estate
- Shouting louder
- Misjudged campaign
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 81: Co-operative Group (Food): Group financial performance, 2006/07-2010/11
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- Figure 82: Co-operative Group (Food): Group financial performance, H1 2010 and h1 2011
- Figure 83: Co-operative Group (Food): Outlet data, 2007/11
- Consumer profile
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- Figure 84: Co-operative Group (Food): Secondary-shop consumer profile by gender, age, socio-economic group, August 2011
- Figure 85: Co-operative Group (Food): Secondary-shop consumer profile by location, August 2011
- Figure 86: Co-operative Group (Food): Secondary-shop consumer profile by ACORN classification, 2011
- Retail offering
- E-commerce and home shopping
Iceland Foods
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- Strategic evaluation
- Recent ownership developments
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 88: Iceland Foods Ltd: Group financial performance, 2006/07-2010/11
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- Figure 89: Iceland Foods Ltd: Outlet data, 2006/07-2010/11
- Consumer profiles
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- Figure 90: Iceland Foods Ltd: Consumer profile, by gender, age, socio-economic group, August 2011
- Figure 91: Iceland Foods Ltd: Consumer profile, by location, August 2011
- Figure 92: Iceland Foods Ltd: Consumer profile by ACORN classification, August 2011
- Retail offering
- E-commerce and home shopping
J Sainsbury
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- Strategic evaluation
- Strong performance
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- Figure 94: Sainsbury’s Supermarkets: Sales growth, 2006/07-2010/11
- Expansion underpins growth
- Looking to catch up in non-food
- Convenience stores good fit with online
- Intensifying price competition
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 95: Sainsbury’s Supermarkets, 2006/07-2010/11
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- Figure 96: Sainsbury’s Supermarkets: Outlet data, 2006/07-2010/11
- Store formats
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- Figure 97: Sainsbury’s Supermarkets: Outlets by size, 2006/07-2010/11
- Consumer profile
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- Figure 98: Sainsbury’s: Primary shoppers, by gender, age and socio-economic group, August 2011
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- Figure 99: Sainsbury’s: Primary shoppers, by region and acorn group, August 2011
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- Figure 100: Sainsbury’s: Secondary shoppers – socio-demographic profile, August 2011
- Figure 101: Sainsbury’s: Secondary shoppers, by region and acorn group, August 2011
- Retail offering
- e-commerce and home shopping
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- Figure 102: Sainsburys.co.uk: Online consumer demographics, three month average to August 2011
Marks & Spencer (Food)
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- Strategic evaluation
-
- Figure 104: Marks & Spencer (food): High Street, Kensington, store
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 105: Marks & Spencer (food): Group sales performance, 2006/07-2010/11
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- Figure 106: Marks & Spencer (food): Outlet data, 2007/11
- Store formats
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- Figure 107: Marks & Spencer (food): UK outlet data, 2007/11
- Consumer profile
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- Figure 108: M&S (Food): Consumer profile, by gender, age, socio-economic group, August 2011
- Figure 109: M&S (Food): Consumer profile, by location, August 2011
- Figure 110: M&S (Food): Consumer profile by ACORN classification, August 2011
- Retail offering
- E-commerce and home shopping
Ocado
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- Strategic evaluation
- Intense competition
- IPO boosts funding
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 112: Ocado: Group financial performance, 2005/06-2009/10
- Distribution
- Retail offering
- Product mix
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- Figure 113: Ocado: Product mix, by number of lines, 2011
- E-commerce and home shopping
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- Figure 114: Ocado.com: Online consumer demographics, three month average to August 2011
Schwarz Group (UK)
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- Strategic evaluation
- Roller coaster ride
- Improving choice
- Avoiding risks
- Opportunities closer to home
- Other investments
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 116: Schwarz Group: Estimated group sales performance, 2006/07-2010/11
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- Figure 117: Schwarz Group: Estimated outlet numbers, 2007/11
- Consumer profile
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- Figure 118: Lidl: Secondary shoppers, by gender, age and socio-economic group, August 2011
- Figure 119: Lidl: Secondary shoppers by region and acorn group, August 2011
- Retail offering
- e-commerce
SPAR International
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- Strategic evaluation
- Rationalisation and the recovery
- Background
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- Figure 121: SPAR International: Year of entry, by country
- Company performance
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- Figure 122: SPAR International: Retail sales by country, 2006-10
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- Figure 123: SPAR International: Estimated European sales exclusive of sales tax, 2010
- Figure 124: SPAR International: Outlet data, 2006-10
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- Figure 125: SPAR International: Sales per m², by country (Europe), 2010
- European operations
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- Figure 126: SPAR (Austria): Sales as share of Austrian food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
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- Figure 127: SPAR (Belgium): Sales as share of all Belgian food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
- Figure 128: SPAR (Croatia): Sales as share of all Croatian food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
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- Figure 129: SPAR (Czech Republic): Sales as share of all Czech food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
- Figure 130: SPAR (Denmark): Sales as share of all Danish food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
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- Figure 131: SPAR (France): Sales as share of all French food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
- Figure 132: SPAR (Germany): Sales as share of all German food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
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- Figure 133: SPAR (Greece): Sales as share of all Greek food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
- Figure 134: SPAR (Hungary): Sales as share of all Hungarian food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
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- Figure 135: SPAR (Ireland): Sales as share of all Irish food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
- Figure 136: SPAR (Italy): Sales as share of all Italian food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
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- Figure 137: SPAR (Netherlands): Sales as share of all Dutch food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
- Figure 138: SPAR (Norway): Sales as share of all Norwegian food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
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- Figure 139: SPAR (Poland): Sales as share of all Polish food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
- Figure 140: SPAR (Romania): Sales as share of all Romanian food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
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- Figure 141: SPAR (Russia): Sales as share of all Russian food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
- Figure 142: SPAR (Slovenia): Sales as share of all Slovenian food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
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- Figure 143: SPAR (Spain): Sales as share of all Spanish food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
- Figure 144: SPAR (Switzerland): Sales as share of all Swiss food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
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- Figure 145: SPAR (UK): Sales as share of all UK food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
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- Figure 146: SPAR International: Sales and outlets, by country outside Europe, 2007-10
- Store formats
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- Figure 147: SPAR International: Store formats, 2010
- Retail offering
- e-commerce and home shopping
Tesco
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- Strategic evaluation
- Be careful not to overstate the problems
- Clubcard
- Loyalty
- The “£500m campaign”
- The end of Clubcard?
- The limits of growth
- Overseas
- Time to be optimistic
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 149: Tesco Plc: Group financial performance, 2006/07-2010/11
- Figure 150: Tesco: Like-for-like sales growth, 26 weeks to Aug 2011
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- Figure 151: Tesco Plc: Outlet data, 2007/11
- Performance by country
- UK
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- Figure 152: UK: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
- Czech Republic
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- Figure 153: Czech Republic: Sales as share of all food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
- Hungary
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- Figure 154: Hungary: Sales as share of all food retailers sales, 2006-10
- Poland
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- Figure 155: Poland: Sales as % all food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
- Ireland
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- Figure 156: Ireland: Sales as % all food retailers’ sales, 2006-10
- Turkey
- Store formats
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- Figure 157: Tesco: UK store formats, 2010/11
- Figure 158: Tesco: Other European store formats, 2010/11
- Consumer profile
- Primary shoppers
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- Figure 159: Tesco - Primary shoppers by gender, age and socio-economic group, August 2011
- Figure 160: Tesco - Primary shoppers, by region, August 2011
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- Figure 161: Tesco - Primary shoppers, by Acorn classification, August 2011
- Consumer profile – secondary shoppers
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- Figure 162: Tesco - Secondary Shoppers – by gender, age and socio-economic group, August 2011
- Figure 163: Tesco - Secondary Shoppers – by region, August 2011
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- Figure 164: Tesco - Secondary Shoppers, by Acorn classification, August 2011
- Retail offering
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- Figure 165: Tesco UK: Sales, by product category, 2009/10-2010/11
- e-commerce and home shopping
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- Figure 166: Tesco: Online consumer demographics, three month average to August 2011
Waitrose
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- Strategic evaluation
- Star performer
- New stores and variety in the offer
- Rolling out online
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 168: Waitrose Ltd: Group financial performance, 2006/07-2010/11
- Figure 169: Waitrose Ltd: Outlet data, 2006/07-2010/11
- Consumer profile
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- Figure 170: Waitrose: Secondary shoppers - by gender, age and socio-economic group, August 2011
- Figure 171: Waitrose: Secondary shoppers - by region and acorn group, August 2011
- Retail offering
- E-commerce and home shopping
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- Figure 172: Waitrose.com: Online consumer demographics, three month average to August 2011
Wm Morrison Group
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- Strategic evaluation
- Slowly diversifying channels
- Innovations – and flexibility
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- Figure 174: Wm Morrison Group: ‘Lab’ store, Kirkstall, Leeds
- Revitalising own brands
- Background
- Company performance
- 2010/11
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- Figure 175: Wm Morrison Group: Group financial performance, 2006/07-2010/11
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- Figure 176: Wm Morrison Group: Sales breakdown, 2006/07-2010/11
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- Figure 177: Wm Morrison Group: Annual sales growth excluding fuel, 2006/07-2010/11
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- Figure 178: Wm Morrison Group: Sales breakdown, H1 2010/11 and H1 2011/12
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- Figure 179: Wm Morrison Group: Outlet data, 2006/07-2010/11
- Figure 180: Wm Morrison Group: Outlet data by region, 2010 and 2011
- Store formats
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- Figure 181: Wm Morrison Group: Store portfolio by size, 2007-11
- Consumer profile
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- Figure 182: Wm Morrison Group: Consumer profile by gender, age, socio-economic group, August 2011
- Figure 183: Wm Morrison Group: Consumer profile by location, August 2011
- Figure 184: Wm morrison Group: Consumer profile, by ACORN classification, August 2011
- Retail offering
- E-commerce and home shopping
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- Figure 185: Wm Morrison Group: Online consumer demographics, three month average to August 2011
Appendix – The Market
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- Population
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- Figure 186: Europe: Population, by age group, 2005
- Figure 187: Europe: Population, by age group, 2010
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- Figure 188: Europe: Population, by age group, 2015
- Figure 189: Europe: Population, by age group, 2020
- GDP
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- Figure 190: Europe: GDP (current prices), 2010
- Figure 191: Europe: GDP growth rates (current prices), 2001-Q3 2011
- Figure 192: Europe: GDP growth rates (constant prices), 2001 – Q3 2011
- Consumer spending
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- Figure 193: Europe: Households’ consumer spending (current prices), 2010
- Figure 194: Europe: Households’ consumer spending growth rates (current prices), 2001- Q3 2011
- Figure 195: Europe: Households’ consumer spending growth rates (constant prices), 2001-Q3 2011
- Consumer prices
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- Figure 196: Europe: Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2001-10
- Unemployment
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- Figure 197: Europe: Average rate of unemployment, 2001-10
- Interest rates
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- Figure 198: Europe: Interest rates, 2005 -Q3 2011
- Consumer confidence
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- Figure 199: Europe: Consumer confidence, Sep 2010 -Aug 2011
Appendix – The Consumer – Brand Research
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- Figure 200: Store usage, August 2011
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- Figure 201: Store commitment, August 2011
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- Figure 202: Store momentum, August 2011
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- Figure 203: Store diversity, August 2011
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- Figure 204: Store satisfaction, August 2011
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- Figure 205: Store recommendation, August 2011
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- Figure 206: Store attitude, August 2011
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- Figure 207: Store image – macro image, August 2011
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- Figure 208: Store image – micro image, August 2011
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- Figure 209: Profile of target groups, by demographic, August 2011
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- Figure 210: Psychographic segmentation, by target group, August 2011
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- Figure 211: Store usage, by target group, August 2011
- Brand index
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- Figure 212: Store index
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Appendix – The Consumer – Who Shops Where?
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- Figure 213: Usage of supermarkets for main shop, by demographics, August 2011
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- Figure 214: Most popular usage of supermarkets for top up shop, by demographics, August 2011
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- Figure 215: Next most popular usage of supermarkets for top up shop, by demographics, August 2011
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Appendix – The Consumer – Key Factors For Choosing A Store
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- Figure 216: Aspects most important when you do your main grocery shop, by demographics, August 2011
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Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Grocery Shopping
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- Figure 217: Most popular consumer attitudes towards grocery shopping, by demographics, August 2011
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- Figure 218: Next most popular consumer attitudes towards grocery shopping, by demographics, August 2011
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- Figure 219: Other consumer attitudes towards grocery shopping, by demographics, August 2011
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