Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The Market
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- Figure 1: Volume forecast of all holidays, 2006-16
- Overseas and domestic holidays
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- Figure 2: Volume forecast of overseas holidays, 2006-16
- Figure 3: Volume forecast of domestic holidays, 2006-16
- Market factors
- One to three trips for most
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- Figure 4: Number of holidays booked (UK and overseas) by holidaymakers in the last 12 months, 2011
- APD to rise
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- Figure 5: Air Passenger Duty, by band, economy seats, 2011 and 2012
- Confidence concerns
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- Figure 6: Consumer sentiment for the coming year, October 2011
- Older onwards
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- Figure 7: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2011-16
- Exchange rate change
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- Figure 8: Sterling exchange rates against selected currencies, annual averages for 2011
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Big two continue dominance
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- Figure 9: Travel companies, by share of passengers licensed to top ten companies*, December 2011
- Expedia heads online
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- Figure 10: Top 50 online travel brands, by total unique visitors, November 2011
- Innovations
- The consumer
- Holiday taking
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- Figure 11: Holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
- Overseas holiday plans
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- Figure 12: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2011
- Attitudes towards holidays
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- Figure 13: Attitudes towards holidays, November 2011
- Reaction to weaker finances
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- Figure 14: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, November 2011
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- What does 2012 mean for holidays – abroad and at home?
- Will the likely fall in inflation provide a significant boost to holidays?
- Is the staycation trend here to stay?
- How can non-air transport modes take advantage of rising fight costs?
- What do the ‘Arab Spring’ and the eurozone crisis mean for holidaymakers after 2011?
Future Opportunities
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- Switch Off
- Let's Make a Deal
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- One to three trips most likely
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- Figure 15: Number of holidays booked (UK and overseas) by holidaymakers in the last 12 months, 2010 and 2011
- Figure 16: Number of holidays/short breaks taken in the last 12 months, 2010 and 2011
- ‘About one month’ before
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- Figure 17: How far ahead bookings for holiday and short breaks were made, 2010 and 2011
- Spend stays similar
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- Figure 18: Amount spent on holidays (five or more days) and short breaks (one to four days), 2010 and 2011
- Flight costs on the rise
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- Figure 19: Air Passenger Duty, 2011 and 2012
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- Figure 20: Oil price per barrel, October 2009-October 2011
- Petrol prices push up UK costs
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- Figure 21: Petrol and diesel price per litre, October 2009-October 2011
- Cook survives, but collapses continue
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- Figure 22: ATOL tour operator failures/closures in the UK, 2011
- High street contraction
- Legislative reform coming in 2012
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- Consumers not confident
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- Figure 23: Trends in consumer sentiment for the coming year, February 2009-October 2011
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- Figure 24: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index, January 2008-December 2011
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- Figure 25: GDP quarterly percentage change, Q1 2006-Q3 2011
- Older working
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- Figure 26: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2006-16
- Figure 27: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2006-16
- Online and on the move
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- Figure 28: Broadband penetration, by demographics, 2006-11
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- Figure 29: Mobile phone features owned and used, 2011
- Single surge still on
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- Figure 30: UK households, by size, 2006-16
- Figure 31: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
- Euro woes may spell UK opportunity
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- Figure 32: Sterling exchange rates against selected currencies, 2007-12
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Overseas travel remains in the doldrums
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- Figure 33: Overseas travel volumes, by purpose, 2006-11
- Domestic segment doing well
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- Figure 34: Domestic travel volumes, by purpose, 2006-11
- Holidays’ priority falls
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- Figure 35: Trends in activities consumers have done and are considering doing, July-October 2011
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- Figure 36: Trends in what extra money is spent on, November 2009-October 2011
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Accommodation – auctions and gardens
- Cruise excursions and ‘Real Sunlight’
- Fair trade first
- Groupon and Jetsetter lead flash sector
- More and more apps
- New in the sky and on the seas
- Thomson breaks with tradition
- TripAdvisor responds
- 20.12%
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Staycations still here
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- Figure 37: Domestic and overseas holidays and expenditure, 2006-16
- 2011, average spend, and beyond
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- Figure 38: Average spend per holiday, domestic, overseas and overall, 2006-16
- Forecast
- Overall
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- Figure 39: Volume forecast of all holidays, 2006-16
- Figure 40: Value forecast of all holidays, 2006-16*
- Overseas
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- Figure 41: Volume forecast of overseas holidays, 2006-16
- Figure 42: Value forecast of overseas holidays, 2006-16*
- Domestic
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- Figure 43: Volume forecast of domestic holidays, 2006-16
- Figure 44: Value forecast of domestic holidays, 2006-16
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Six in ten are independent
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- Figure 45: Inclusive holidays versus independent holidays abroad, by volume, 2006-11
- Air up through absence of ash
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- Figure 46: Total overseas holidays, by mode of transport, 2006-11
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- Figure 47: Price and journey time comparison of air vs rail vs tunnel/car travel, travelling February 2012
- Car use stays top in UK
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- Figure 48: Main mode of transport used, domestic holidays*, 2006-10
- Unrest rebalances overseas holiday choices
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- Figure 49: Outbound holiday visits, by region visited, 2006-11
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- Figure 50: Top 25 outbound destinations, by number of visits (all purposes), 2008-H1 2011
- The long and the short of it
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- Figure 51: Overseas short break vs longer holidays, by volume, 2006-10
- Figure 52: Domestic short break vs longer holidays, by volume, 2006-10
Market Share
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- Key points
- Expedia takes top spot online
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- Figure 53: Top 50 online travel brands, by total unique visitors, November 2009-November 2011
- ‘Big Two’ continue to dominate
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- Figure 54: Overseas passengers licensed to UK travel companies, December 2011
Companies and Products
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- easyJet
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- Figure 55: easyJet Plc key financials, H1 2010 and H1 2011
- Eurostar/Eurotunnel
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- Figure 56: Eurostar International Ltd, key financials, H1 2010 and H1 2011
- Figure 57: Eurostar International Ltd, key financials, 2009 and 2010
- Expedia
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- Figure 58: Expedia.com Ltd, key financials, 2009 and 2010
- InterContinental Hotel Group
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- Figure 59: InterContinental Hotel Group, EMEA segment key financials, H1 2010 and H1 2011
- Figure 60: InterContinental Hotel Group, EMEA segment key financials, 2009 and 2010
- International Airlines Group
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- Figure 61: British Airways, key financials, 2009 and 2010
- P&O Ferries
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- Figure 62: P&O Ferries Division Holdings Ltd, key financials, 2009 and 2010
- Ryanair
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- Figure 63: Ryanair Holdings Plc, key financials, H1 2010 and H1 2011
- Figure 64: Ryanair Holdings Plc, key financials, 2010 and 2011
- Thomas Cook
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- Figure 65: Thomas Cook Group Plc – UK segment, key financials, H1 2010 and H1 2011
- TripAdvisor
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- Figure 66: TripAdvisor Ltd, key financials, 2009 and 2010
- TUI Travel
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- Figure 67: TUI Travel Plc UK and Ireland, key financials, H1 2010 and H1 2011
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Online for info
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- Figure 68: Sources used to get information for all holidays and short breaks, 2010 and 2011
- DIY dominates
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- Figure 69: How holidays were booked, 2010 and 2011
Holiday Taking
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- Key points
- Non-holidaymaker rise
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- Figure 70: Holidays taken in last 12 months, 2010 and 2011
- Have money, have holidays
- Away and UK
- Not going away
Number of Holidays
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- Key points
- Frequency falls
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- Figure 71: Number of holidays taken in past 12 months, 2010 and 2011
- Domestic determinants
- Europe earners
- Independents most likely to look beyond Europe
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- Figure 72: Number of holidays taken in past 12 months, by most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 73: Number of holidays taken in past 12 months, by next most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 74: Number of holidays taken in past 12 months, by other holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
Spend on Holidays
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- Key points
- Watching the pennies
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- Figure 75: Domestic and overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months, 2010 and 2011
- Who spends what, where?
- Budget Britain
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- Figure 76: Domestic holiday spending, by number of domestic holidays taken, November 2011
- Outside Europe expense
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- Figure 77: Overseas holiday spending, by number of overseas holidays taken, November 2011
Holidays Abroad
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- Key points
- Beach is best
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- Figure 78: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, 2010 and 2011
- Family affairs
- Who takes what?
- Type and times
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- Figure 79: Type of overseas holiday taken, by number of overseas holidays taken, November 2011
Overseas Holiday Plans
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- Key points
- Plans stay in place
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- Figure 80: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, 2010 and 2011
- Forward planning
- The no-goers
- Plans vs spending
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- Figure 81: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by expenditure on overseas holidays in last 12 months, November 2011
- Repeat business
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- Figure 82: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by most popular type of holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 83: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by next most popular type of holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2011
What People Think of Holidays
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- Key points
- Four in ten call holidays a luxury
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- Figure 84: Attitudes towards holidays, 2010 and 2011
- Wealthiest see holidays as necessary
- Staycations and Olympic impact
- Planes, trains and automobiles
- What do the planners think?
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- Figure 85: Attitudes towards holidays, by most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 86: Attitudes towards holidays, by next most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 87: Attitudes towards holidays, by other overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2011
What People Would Do If Their Financial Situation Worsened
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- Key points
- Less go
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- Figure 88: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, 2010 and 2011
- Fewer holidays, dropping breaks
- Deal seeking
- Staycation/closer overseas switching
- What people think, what they would do
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- Figure 89: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by most popular attitudes towards holidays, November 2011
- Figure 90: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by next most popular attitudes towards holidays, November 2011
- Figure 91: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by other attitudes towards holidays, November 2011
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Overall
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- Figure 92: Volume forecast of all holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16
- Figure 93: Value forecast of all holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16*
- Overseas
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- Figure 94: Volume forecast of overseas holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16
- Figure 95: Value forecast of overseas holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16*
- Domestic
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- Figure 96: Volume forecast of domestic holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16
- Figure 97: Value forecast of domestic holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16
Appendix – Holiday Taking
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- Figure 98: Most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
- Figure 99: Next most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 100: Other holidays taken in last 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
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Appendix – Number of Holidays
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- Figure 101: Number of holidays taken in past 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
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Appendix – Spend on Holidays
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- Figure 102: Domestic holiday spending in the last 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
- Figure 103: Most popular overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 104: Next most popular overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
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Appendix – Holidays Abroad
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- Figure 105: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 106: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by next most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 107: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by other holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 108: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by most popular number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 109: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by next most popular number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 110: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 111: Most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
- Figure 112: Next most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
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Appendix – Overseas Holiday Plans
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- Figure 113: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 114: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by next most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 115: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by other holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 116: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by least popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 117: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by most popular number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 118: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by next most popular number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 119: Most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
- Figure 120: Next most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 121: Other overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by demographics, November 2011
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Appendix – What People Think of Holidays
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- Figure 122: Attitudes towards holidays, by domestic holiday spending in the last 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 123: Attitudes towards holidays, by overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 124: Attitudes towards holidays, by most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 125: Attitudes towards holidays, by next most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 126: Attitudes towards holidays, by other holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 127: Attitudes towards holidays, by least popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 128: Attitudes towards holidays, by most popular number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 129: Attitudes towards holidays, by next most popular number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 130: Attitudes towards holidays, by most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 131: Attitudes towards holidays, by next most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 132: Most popular attitudes towards holidays, by demographics, November 2011
- Figure 133: Next most popular attitudes towards holidays, by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 134: Other attitudes towards holidays, by demographics, November 2011
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Appendix – What People Would Do If Their Financial Situation Worsened
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- Figure 135: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 136: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by next most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 137: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by other holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 138: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by least popular holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 139: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by domestic holiday spending in the last 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 140: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 141: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by most popular number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 142: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by next most popular number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 143: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 144: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by next most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 145: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 146: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by next most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 147: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by other overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2011
- Figure 148: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by least popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2011
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- Figure 149: Most popular how holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by demographics, November 2011
- Figure 150: Next most popular how holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 151: Other how holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by demographics, November 2011
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