Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer data
- Advertising creative
- Acronyms and terms
- Acronyms
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Breakfast cereal sales down two consecutive years
- Higher sugar, higher sales
- Market conditions provide both challenges and opportunities
- Competition coming from other foods and other channels
- Supermarket channel generates largest share of total U.S. cereal sales
- Cold cereal product launches greatly outnumber hot cereal
- Websites and social media complement traditional advertising
- Today’s cereal consumer
Insights and Opportunities
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- Promote non-breakfast cereal consumption to boost usage occasions
- Fitness partnerships further enhance better-for-you (BFY) image
- Drug stores should consider creating health-oriented cereal store brands
- Merchandise organic breakfast cereal with traditional cereals to raise awareness
- Tap into youth’s evolving eating habits
Inspire Insights
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- Trend 1: Who are the Joneses?
- Trend 2: Accentuate the Negative
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Breakfast cereal sales decline eases in 2011
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- Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales of breakfast cereal, at current prices, 2006-16
- Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of breakfast cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
- Fan-chart forecast
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- Figure 3: Fan-chart forecast of breakfast cereal, 2006-16
- Walmart sales
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Cereal expected to see biggest price increase in 2012
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- Figure 4: Changes in food price indexes, 2009-12
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- Figure 5: Real disposable income, 2007-11*
- Children’s population statistics present opportunity and challenge
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- Figure 6: Households, by presence of children, 1999-2009
- Figure 7: Population, by age, 2006-16
- Breakfast most important meal of the day
- MyPlate may represent a growth opportunity
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Breakfast occasion attracts a number of food categories
- Quick service restaurants have woken up to breakfast opportunity
- Convenience and portability important to time-strapped consumers
Segment Performance—Cold and Hot Cereal
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- Key points
- Cold and hot cereal show improvement from 2010
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- Figure 8: Total U.S. sales and forecast of cold cereal at current prices, 2006-16
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- Figure 9: Total U.S. sales and forecast of hot cereal at current prices, 2006-16
- Cold cereal outsells hot cereal by a wide margin
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- Figure 10: FDMx sales of breakfast cereal, by segment and subsegment, 2009-11
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- Figure 11: FDMx sales of cold cereal, by subsegment, 2006-11
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Breakfast cereal a key category for supermarkets
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- Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales of breakfast cereal, by channel, 2009-11
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- Figure 13: Supermarket/food stores’ sales of breakfast cereal, at current prices, 2006-11
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- Figure 14: Drug stores, mass, and other retailers’ sales of breakfast cereal, at current prices, 2006-11
Retail Channels—Natural Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Brand loyalty and innovation key to growth in natural supermarkets
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- Figure 15: Natural supermarket sales of breakfast cereal, at current prices, 2009-11*
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- Figure 16: Natural supermarket sales of breakfast cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-11*
- Natural supermarkets sales by segment
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- Figure 17: Natural supermarket sales of breakfast cereal, by segment, 2009 and 2011*
- Leading brands of note
- Natural channel sales by organic
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- Figure 18: Natural supermarket sales of breakast cereal, by organic, 2009 and 2011*
- Natural supermarkets’ gluten-free sales
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- Figure 19: Natural supermarket sales of breakfast cereal, by gluten-free, 2009 and 2011*
- Consumers express strong interest in organic cereal
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- Figure 20: Household usage—organic food, April 2009-June 2011
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Kellogg, General Mills remain top manufacturers
- Private label posts biggest sales gain
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- Figure 21: Manufacturer FDMx sales of breakfast cereal, 2010 and 2011
Brand Share—Cold and Hot Cereal
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- Key points
- Cold cereal
- BFY brands among the fastest growing
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- Figure 22: Selected FDMx brand sales of cold cereal, 2010 and 2011
- Hot cereal
- Quaker Oats’ performance a drain on segment
- Manufacturer and brand sales of hot cereal
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- Figure 23: Selected FDMx brand sales of hot cereal, 2010 and 2011
Brand Share—Cold Cereal (Low Sugar)
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- Key points
- General Mills’ emphasis on healthier cereals driving gains
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- Figure 24: Selected FDMx brand sales of cold cereal (low sugar), 2010 and 2011
Brand Share—Cold Cereal (Medium Sugar)
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- Key points
- Cold cereal (medium sugar) consumers sweet on Kellogg
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- Figure 25: Selected FDMx brand sales of cold cereal (medium sugar), 2010 and 2011
Brand Share—Cold Cereal (Medium-high Sugar)
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- Key points
- Manufacturers’ sales down throughout the segment
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- Figure 26: Selected FDMx brand sales of cold cereal (medium-high sugar), 2010 and 2011
Brand Share—Cold Cereal (High Sugar)
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- Key points
- Segment grows despite consumers’ interest in eating better
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- Figure 27: Selected FDMx brand sales of cold cereal (high sugar), 2010 and 2011
Innovations and Innovators
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- Key points
- Cereal product launches rebound following sharp decline in 2009
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- Figure 28: Breakfast cereal product launches, by subcategory, 2007-11
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- Figure 29: Breakfast cereal product launches, by top 10 claims, 2007-11
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- Figure 30: Breakfast cereal product launches, by top 10 companies, 2007-11
- Figure 31: Breakfast cereal product launches, by private label share, 2007-11
- Private label
- BFY
- Unique promotions
Marketing Strategies
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- Key points
- Cereal manufacturers’ CFBAI membership gives industry a powerful voice
- General Mills hopes movie promotion is a blockbuster
- General Mills’ retro cereal boxes connect with parents and their children
- Manufacturers’ websites used to promote breakfast/cereal benefits
- Facebook is tool for promoting cereal at corporate and brand level
- Television advertising
- General Mills’ Cheerios
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- Figure 32: General Mills/Cheerios, July 2011
- General Mills’ Chex Cereals
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- Figure 33: General Mills/Chex, January 2011
- Kashi Cereals
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- Figure 34: Kashi/Cereal, January 2011
- Kellogg’s Frosted Mini-Wheats
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- Figure 35: Kellogg’s/Frosted Mini-Wheats, February 2011
- Kellogg’s Corn Flakes
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- Figure 36: Kellogg’s/Corn Flakes, March 2011
Breakfast Consumption Frequency
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- Key points
- Oldest consumers make time for breakfast
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- Figure 37: Breakfast consumption, by age, November 2011
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- Figure 38: Breakfast consumption, by household income, November 2011
- Figure 39: Breakfast consumption, by presence of children in household, November 2011
Breakfast Food Consumption by Type and Frequency
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- Key points
- Cold cereal most popular breakfast type
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- Figure 40: Types of breakfast food eaten, by gender, November 2011
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- Figure 41: Types of breakfast food eaten, by age, November 2011
- Figure 42: Types of breakfast food eaten, by household income, November 2011
- Fresh fruit has highest consumption frequency
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- Figure 43: Breakfast food consumption frequency, November 2011
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- Figure 44: Breakfast cereal consumption frequency, by age, November 2011
- Textured and single-type cereals favored over granola and muesli
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- Figure 45: Types of cold cereal eaten, by frequency by age, November 2011
- Traditional oats and flavored instant oatmeal most frequently used
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- Figure 46: Types of hot cereal eaten, by frequency, by age, November 2011
Household Usage
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- Key points
- Cold cereal gets warm welcome in U.S. households
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- Figure 47: Household usage—breakfast cereal (cold), by age, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 48: Household usage—breakfast cereal (cold), by presence of children, April 2010-June 2011
- Consumers a bit cool to hot cereal
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- Figure 49: Household usage—breakfast cereal (hot), by age, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 50: Household usage—breakfast cereal (hot), by presence of children, April 2010-June 2011
- Kids aged 6-11
- Cold cereal
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- Figure 51: Kids’ usage—cold cereal, by kids aged 6-11, April 2010-June 2011
- Hot cereal
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- Figure 52: Kids’ usage—hot cereal, by kids aged 6-11, April 2010-June 2011
- Teens aged 12-17
- Cold cereal
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- Figure 53: Teens’ usage—cold cereal, by teens aged 12-17, April 2010-June 2011
- Hot cereal
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- Figure 54: Teens’ usage—hot cereal, by teens aged 12-17, April 2010-June 2011
Attributes That Matter
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- Key points
- Fiber and whole grains key attributes to cereal users
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- Figure 55: Attributes that matter, by gender, November 2011
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- Figure 56: Attributes that matter, by age, November 2011
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- Figure 57: Attributes that matter, by presence of children in household, November 2011
Reasons Why and Ways People Eat Cereal
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- Key points
- Some distinct reasons behind men’s and women’s cereal usage
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- Figure 58: Reasons for cereal consumption, by gender, November 2011
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- Figure 59: Reasons for cereal consumption, by age, November 2011
- Figure 60: Reasons for cereal consumption, by household income, November 2011
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- Figure 61: Reasons for cereal consumption, by presence of children younger than 18 in household, November 2011
- Milk a natural complement to cereal
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- Figure 62: Ways consumers eat cereal, by age, November 2011
- Cereal considered to be a good value
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- Figure 63: Attitudes toward cereal, by gender, November 2011
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- Figure 64: Attitudes toward cereal, by age, November 2011
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- Figure 65: Attitudes toward cereal, by presence of children in household, November 2011
Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Whites average slightly more weekly breakfast occasions
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- Figure 66: Breakfast consumption, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
- Figure 67: Types of breakfast food eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
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- Figure 68: Breakfast cereal consumption frequency, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
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- Figure 69: Household usage—breakfast cereal (cold), by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 70: Household usage—breakfast cereal (hot), by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 71: Attributes that matter, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
- Figure 72: Reasons for cereal consumption, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
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- Figure 73: Attitudes toward cereal, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
Cluster Analysis
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- Cereal Values
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Mature Hots
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Same Brands
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Young & Healthys
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristic tables
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- Figure 74: Breakfast cereal eaters, November 2011
- Figure 75: Breakfast consumption by breakfast cereal eaters, November 2011
- Figure 76: Types of breakfast food eaten, by breakfast cereal eaters, November 2011
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- Figure 77: Breakfast food consumption frequency, by breakfast cereal eaters, November 2011
- Figure 78: Breakfast food characteristics, by breakfast cereal eaters, November 2011
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- Figure 79: Breakfast food consumption frequency, by breakfast cereal eaters, November 2011
- Figure 80: Reasons for breakfast food consumption, by breakfast cereal eaters, November 2011
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- Figure 81: Ways of eating breakfast foods, by breakfast cereal eaters, November 2011
- Figure 82: Attributes that matter, by breakfast cereal eaters, November 2011
- Cluster demographic tables
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- Figure 83: Breakfast cereal eaters, by gender, November 2011
- Figure 84: Breakfast cereal eaters, by age, November 2011
- Figure 85: Breakfast cereal eaters, by household income, November 2011
- Figure 86: Breakfast cereal eaters, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
- Figure 87: Breakfast cereal eaters, by presence of children in household, November 2011
- Cluster methodology
Custom Consumer Groups
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- Key points
- Attitudes and behavior of the frequent breakfast consumer
- Lighter male breakfast consumer least likely to eat cereal
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- Figure 88: Types of breakfast food eaten, by custom consumer groups, November 2011
- Male breakfast buffs most likely to eat cereal every day
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- Figure 89: Breakfast food consumption frequency, by custom consumer groups, November 2011
- Women show greater interest than men in cereal attributes
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- Figure 90: Attributes that matter, by custom consumer groups, November 2011
- Cereal favored by all the custom consumer groups for its convenience
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- Figure 91: Reasons for cereal consumption, by custom consumer groups, November 2011
- Women more promotion sensitive than men
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- Figure 92: Attitudes toward cereal, by custom consumer groups, November 2011
SymphonyIRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Cold cereal
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—cold cereal
- Brand map
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- Figure 93: Brand map, selected brands of cold cereal buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 94: Key purchase measures for the top brands of cold cereal, by household penetration, 2011*
- Hot cereal
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—hot cereal
- Brand map
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- Figure 95: Brand map, selected brands of hot cereal buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 96: Key purchase measures for the top brands of hot cereal, by household penetration, 2011*
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 97: Breakfast consumption, by gender, November 2011
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- Figure 98: Types of breakfast food eaten, by presence of children in household, November 2011
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- Figure 99: Breakfast cereal consumption frequency, by gender, November 2011
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- Figure 100: Breakfast cereal consumption frequency, by household income, November 2011
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- Figure 101: Trended household usage—breakfast cereal (cold), April 2008-June 2011
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- Figure 102: Trended household usage—breakfast cereal (hot), April 2008-June 2011
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- Figure 103: Attributes that matter, by household income, November 2011
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- Figure 104: Attitudes toward cereal, by household income, November 2011
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Appendix: Trade Associations
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