Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Excluded
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Market size and forecast for value sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2007-17
- The future
- Market factors
- Discretionary spending comes under consumer reassessment
- A growing need to engage the older population
- Healthier variants drive growth
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Coca-Cola and Pepsi brands dominate the market
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- Figure 2: Brand shares in the UK take-home carbonated soft drinks market, 2011
- NPD continues to drive the market
- Coca-Cola dominates ad investment, despite decline in spend
- The consumer
- Penetration stands at more than nine in ten
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- Figure 3: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by type, March 2012
- At home is the most popular venue for drinking CSDs
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- Figure 4: Occasions/locations when carbonated soft drinks have been drunk, March 2012
- Providing a refreshing ‘treat’ to consumers, in moderation
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- Figure 5: Attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, March 2012
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can the market leverage sharing occasions?
- How can the market encourage greater usage on the go?
- How can the category stay ahead in an increasingly competitive soft drinks market?
- How much of a threat do own-label players pose to leading brands?
Future Opportunities
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- Make It Mine
- Sense of the Intense
- Old Gold
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Prices appear to have stabilised in the market
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- Figure 6: Annual RPI percentage change for soft drinks, all items and food, January 2007-February 2012
- CSDs benefit from lower price positioning in soft drinks market than many competitors
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- Figure 7: Prices per unit of selected soft drinks, May 2011
- A large minority of consumers look to avoid unhealthy products
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- Figure 8: Trends in attitudes towards health, 2007-11
- Sunshine hours remain above long-term average
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- Figure 9: Annual sunshine hours 2006-11, compared to the 1971-2000 average
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- The 2012 recession is expected to be shallow
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- Figure 10: Consumer expenditure at constant 2012 prices, 2007-17
- Appealing to a price-sensitive consumer
- Demographic changes
- Growth in 25-34s should provide a boost to the market
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- Figure 11: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2007-12 and 2012-17
- Rise in ABs bodes well for future growth
- Dominance of families is a positive for the sector
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- Figure 12: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2007-17
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Carbonates dominate the soft drinks sphere
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- Figure 13: Trends in types of drink consumed in the past 12 months, 2007-11
- Carbonates trail juice in terms of NPD
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- Figure 14: Comparison of new product launches in carbonated soft drinks with other non-alcoholic beverages, 2009-12
- On-trade should maximise the benefits from consumers’ shift towards non-alcoholic drinks
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- Figure 15: UK pub industry turnover, by segment, 2009-11
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- The market continues to focus NPD on cola
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- Figure 16: New product launches, by flavour component (top six), 2009-12
- Packaging formats provide innovation...
- ...and environmental claims
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- Figure 17: Top five new product launch claims in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, 2009-12
- CSD’s health-led NPD remains focused on low- and no-calorie/sugar variants
- Premium varieties target 25-45-year-old women
Market Size, Forecast and Segmentation
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- Key points
- Inflation continues to affect the market
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- Figure 18: Market volume and value size and forecast for the total UK carbonated soft drinks market, 2007-17
- Figure 19: Market size and forecast for UK value sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2007-17
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- Figure 20: Market size and forecast for UK volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2007-17
- Take-home benefits from consumers spending more time at home
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- Figure 21: Market volume and value size and forecast for take-home carbonated soft drinks market, 2007-17
- Healthier variants drive sales in the take-home channel
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- Figure 22: Value sales in the carbonated soft drinks take-home sector, by sugar content, 2009-11
- On-trade to see a decline in volumes
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- Figure 23: Market volume and value size and forecast for on-premise carbonated soft drinks market, 2007-17
- Forecast methodology
Market Share
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- Key points
- Coca-Cola continues to account for almost half of take-home sales...
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- Figure 24: Brand value shares in the UK take-home carbonated soft drinks market, 2009-11
- …but Pepsi overtakes in the on-trade
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- Figure 25: Brand value shares of the UK on-premise carbonated soft drinks market, 2009-11
Companies and Products
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- AG Barr Plc.
- Britvic
- Coca-Cola
- PepsiCo
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Adspend in the market continues to fall
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- Figure 26: Total advertising expenditure in the carbonated soft drinks market, 2008-11
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- Figure 27: Advertising spend for carbonated soft drinks, by top five advertisers, 2009-11
- Preference for TV and outdoor advertising continues
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 28: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the carbonated soft drink sector, February 2012
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 29: Attitudes, by carbonated soft drink brand, February 2012
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- Figure 30: Carbonated soft drinks brand personality – macro image, February 2012
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- Figure 31: Carbonated soft drink brand personality – micro image, February 2012
- Brand experience
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- Figure 32: Carbonated soft drink brand usage, February 2012
- Figure 33: Satisfaction with various carbonated soft drink brands, February 2012
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- Figure 34: Consideration of carbonated soft drink brands, February 2012
- Figure 35: Consumer perceptions of current carbonated soft drink brand performance, February 2012
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- Figure 36: Carbonated soft drinks brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, February 2012
- Brand index
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- Figure 37: Carbonated soft drinks brand index, February 2012
- Figure 38: Carbonated soft drink brand index vs. recommendation, February 2012
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 39: Target groups, February 2012
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- Figure 40: Carbonated soft drinks brand usage, by target groups, February 2012
- Group One – Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – Individualists
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Take-home market continues to dominate
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- Figure 41: Volume sales in the total carbonated soft drinks market, by channel, 2009-11
- Supermarkets dominate the market
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- Figure 42: Value and volume sales in the take-home carbonated soft drinks market, by channel, 2009-11
- The impulse channel hopes for a stronger summer 2012
- The on-trade should present an opportunity for future growth
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- Figure 43: Trends in the number of pub outlets, 2006-11
Consumer – Usage
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- Key points
- Penetration stands at more than nine in ten
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- Figure 44: Drinking habits of carbonated soft drinks, March 2012
- Half of adults drink CSDs at least once a week
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- Figure 45: Frequency of drinking carbonated soft drinks, March 2012
- Premium formats appeal to most affluent consumers
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- Figure 46: Usage of premium soft drinks, by age, socio-economic group and household income, March 2012
- Healthier versions lose ground as go-to drink
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- Figure 47: Trends in kinds of colas drunk most often, 2007-11
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- Figure 48: Trends in kinds of fizzy soft drinks drunk most often, 2007-11
- The young are the core users of healthier variants
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- Figure 49: Usage of low/no-calorie/diet cola and non-cola, by age, March 2012
- Cans continue to dominate among formats
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- Figure 50: Trends in types of colas drunk most often, 2007-11
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- Figure 51: Trends in types of fizzy soft drinks drunk most often, 2007-11
Consumer – Occasions
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- Key points
- The home is the most popular venue to drink CSDs in
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- Figure 52: Occasions/locations when carbonated soft drinks have been drunk, March 2012
- On-premise consumption appeals most to affluent consumers
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- Figure 53: Index of drinking carbonated soft drinks in a pub/bar, restaurants/café or other out-of-home venue, by gender, age, socio-economic group and annual household income, March 2012
- A need to increase usage on the go
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Low-calorie/Sugar Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Key points
- Attitudes of those drinking low-calorie/sugar variants
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- Figure 54: Agreement with statements on drinking low-calorie/sugar carbonated soft drinks-users, March 2012
- Attitudes of those who do not drink low-calorie/sugar variants
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- Figure 55: Agreement with statements on healthier carbonated soft drinks-non-users, March 2012
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Key points
- Providing a refreshing ‘treat’ to consumers, in moderation
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- Figure 56: Attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, March 2012
- A sizeable minority believe CSDs are ‘unhealthy’
- Users are adventurous on flavour, not on brand
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- Figure 57: Agreement with the statements ‘I like to try new flavours’ and ‘I would like to see more limited edition flavours eg ginger-flavoured cola’, by age, March 2012
- Market needs to remind consumers of affordability of CSDs
- New flavours should appeal to premium soft drink users
- Taste is a barrier to older consumers
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- Figure 58: Net agreement on general attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks – under-45s versus over-45s*, March 2012
Consumer – Target Groups
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- Key points
- Three target groups
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- Figure 59: Target groups based on attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, March 2012
- Budget-Conscious (29%)
- Engaged (37%)
- Disengaged (34%)
Appendix – Internal Market Environment
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- Figure 60: Attitudes towards health, by demographics, 2011
- Figure 61: Trends in statements on price/brand, 2007-11
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- Figure 62: Statements on price/brand, by demographics, 2011
- Figure 63: Average trip duration for work in the UK, 1995/97-2010
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Appendix – Broader Market Environment
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- Figure 64: Consumer confidence index, January 1988-January 2012
- Figure 65: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2007-17
- Figure 66: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2007-17
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Appendix – Market Size, Segmentation and Forecast
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- Figure 67: Best- and worst-case forecasts for carbonated soft drinks, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 68: Best- and worst-case forecasts for carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2012-17
- Figure 69: Market size and forecast for UK volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2007-17
- Figure 70: Best- and worst-case forecasts for take-home carbonated soft drinks, by value, 2012-17
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- Figure 71: Best- and worst-case forecasts for take-home carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2012-17
- Figure 72: Best- and worst-case forecasts for on-premise carbonated soft drinks, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 73: Best- and worst-case forecasts for on-premise carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2012-17
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Appendix – Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Figure 74: Main media advertising spend for carbonated soft drinks, by top ten brands, 2009-11
- Figure 75: Main media advertising spend for carbonated soft drinks, by media channel, 2009-11
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Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 76: Brand usage, February 2012
- Figure 77: Brand commitment, February 2012
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- Figure 78: Brand momentum, February 2012
- Figure 79: Brand diversity, February 2012
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- Figure 80: Brand satisfaction, February 2012
- Figure 81: Brand recommendation, February 2012
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- Figure 82: Brand attitude, February 2012
- Figure 83: Brand image – macro image, February 2012
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- Figure 84: Brand image – micro image, February 2012
- Figure 85: Profile of target groups, by demographics, February 2012
- Figure 86: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, February 2012
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- Figure 87: Brand usage, by target groups, February 2012
- Figure 88: Brand index, February 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Usage
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- Figure 89: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by frequency, March 2012
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- Figure 90: Usage of drinking carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 91: Next most popular frequency of drinking carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Occasions
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- Figure 92: Occasions/locations when carbonated soft drinks have been drunk, March 2012
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- Figure 93: Most popular occasions when carbonated soft drinks have been drunk, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 94: Next most popular occasions when carbonated soft drinks have been drunk, by demographics, March 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Low-Calorie/Sugar Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Figure 95: Agreement with statements on drinking low-calorie/sugar carbonated soft drinks – users, March 2012
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- Figure 96: Agreement with statements on healthier carbonated soft drinks – non-users, March 2012
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- Figure 97: Agreement with most popular statements on drinking low-calorie/sugar carbonated soft drinks – users, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 98: Agreement with next most popular statements on drinking low-calorie/sugar carbonated soft drinks – users, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 99: Agreement with statements on healthier carbonated soft drinks – non-users, by demographics, March 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Figure 100: Attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, March 2012
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- Figure 101: Agreement with the statements ‘I believe they are fine in moderation’ and ‘They are refreshing’, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 102: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer brands I trust/are well known rather than less well-known brands’ and ‘I drink them when I want a treat’, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 103: Agreement with the statements ‘I like to try new flavours’ and ‘I try to avoid them because they are unhealthy’, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 104: Agreement with the statements ‘I would switch to own-label to save money’ and ‘I think they are good value, compared to other soft drinks’, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 105: Agreement with the statements ‘They taste too sweet’ and ‘I would like to see more limited edition flavours’, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 106: Agreement with the statements ‘Own-label tastes as good as branded’ and ‘They taste too fizzy’, by demographics, March 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Target Groups
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- Figure 107: Target groups, by demographics, March 2012
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- Figure 108: Drinking habits of carbonated soft drinks, by target groups, March 2012
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- Figure 109: Drinking habits of mixers to be used with alcohol (eg tonic water, for gin and tonic), by target groups, March 2012
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- Figure 110: Occasions when carbonated soft drinks have been drunk, by target groups, March 2012
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- Figure 111: Agreement with statements on drinking low-calorie/sugar carbonated soft drinks, by target groups, March 2012
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- Figure 112: Agreement with statements on healthier carbonated soft drinks, by target groups, March 2012
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- Figure 113: Attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, by target groups, March 2012
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