Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The market and forecast
- Breakfast foods experience positive performance; trend expected to continue
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- Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of breakfast foods, at current prices, 2007-17
- Two segments dominate together, owning 80% of the market
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- Figure 2: Rate of change in current dollar sales, breakfast foods, by segment, 2012-17
- Market factors
- The aging American population could pose a challenge for breakfast foods companies
- Declines in households with children also could impact sales negatively
- Multicultural groups are forecast to grow at a faster rate than whites, total population
- Companies, brands, and innovations
- Market very fragmented; private label and smaller brands control half the market
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- Figure 3: Selected manufacturer FDMx share of breakfast foods, 2012*
- Innovation focused on health and convenience
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- Figure 4: Interest in new breakfast foods products, May 2012
- The consumer
- Consumption is low for some breakfast foods
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- Figure 5: Consumption of top seven breakfast foods, by types and when eaten, May 2012
- Households with children over index on all breakfast foods consumption
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- Figure 6: Consumption of breakfast foods by top five types eaten, by presence of children, May 2012
- Low cholesterol/heart healthy is most important health-related attribute
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- Figure 7: Top five important health-related attributes when selecting breakfast foods, May 2012
- Breakfast at restaurants continues to pose a threat
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- Figure 8: Attitudes toward breakfast eating and restaurant breakfast foods, May 2012
- Value remains important to consumers
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- Figure 9: Attitudes toward breakfast foods purchase behavior, May 2012
- Consumers shop at multiple channels
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- Figure 10: Purchase locations for breakfast foods, May 2012
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can breakfast foods companies increase consumption?
- How can breakfast foods better compete with restaurants offerings?
Insights and Opportunities
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- Extending usage occasions beyond breakfast
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- Figure 11: Attitudes toward breakfast foods eating occasions and purchase behavior, by gender, May 2012
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- Figure 12: Attitudes toward breakfast foods eating occasions, by presence of children in household, May 2012
- Leverage interest in “ethnic-inspired” breakfast foods
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- Figure 13: Interest in new breakfast foods products, by age, May 2012
- Vegetarian options in demand; opportunities exist
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- Figure 14: Attitudes toward interest in new breakfast products and purchase behavior, by age, May 2012
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- Figure 15: Interest in new breakfast food products, by age, May 2012
Trend Applications
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- Trend: A Simple Balance for Health
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- Figure 16: Attitudes toward breakfast eating, by gender, May 2012
- Trend: Slow It All Down
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- Figure 17: Attitudes toward breakfast eating and restaurant breakfast foods, by gender, May 2012
- 2015 Trend: Brand Intervention
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Breakfast foods post strong performance; continued growth expected
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- Figure 18: Attitudes toward breakfast foods purchase behavior, by age, May 2012
- Sales and forecast of breakfast foods
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- Figure 19: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of breakfast foods, at current prices, 2007-17
- Figure 20: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of breakfast foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 21: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of breakfast foods, at current prices, 2007-17
- Walmart sales
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Feeble economic climate keeps consumers in frugal mindset
- Consumer sentiment rises, but not consistent
- 2012 drought to cause significant food price increases in 2013
- Gas prices surging; trend expected to continue
- More than a fifth of Americans work at their home office
- Health: a pressing issue for adults, children; likely to continue
- Health-related conditions are growing in the U.S.
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- Figure 22: Attitudes toward personal health and nutrition, by gender, May 2012
- Current children’s health condition and diet habits: an indication of future adult patterns
- Breakfast continues to be the most important meal of the day
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- Figure 23: Attitudes toward breakfast, by gender, January 2011-March 2012
- Demographic changes likely to affect the breakfast foods market
- Households with children to remain important despite expected decline; number of children per household growing
- Multicultural groups remain important for the breakfast foods category
- The older population is increasing at the highest rate
Competitive Context
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- Breakfast eaten at restaurants continues to pose a threat
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- Figure 24: Eating locations by weekday and weekend, May 2012
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- Figure 25: Attitudes toward restaurant breakfast foods, by age, May 2012
- Other healthful breakfast options present competition
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- A two-horse race dominates the breakfast foods category
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- Figure 26: Usage of private label and brands, by types of breakfast foods, May 2012
- Total U.S. sales of breakfast foods, by segment
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- Figure 27: Total U.S. sales of breakfast foods, segmented by type, 2010 and 2012
Segment Performance—Sweet Breakfast Breads and Pastries
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- Key points
- A blend of “mini,” “wholesome,” yet indulgent
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- Figure 28: Attitudes toward personal health and nutrition, by gender, May 2012
- Sales and forecast of sweet breakfast breads and pastries
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- Figure 29: Total U.S. sales and forecast of sweet breakfast breads and pastries, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—Breakfast Meats
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- Key points
- Breakfast meats continue to enjoy much popularity
- Sales and forecast of breakfast meats
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- Figure 30: Total U.S. sales and forecast of breakfast meats, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—Waffles/Pancakes/French Toast/Toaster Pastries
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- Key points
- Healthful offerings without compromising taste
- Sales and forecast of waffles/pancakes/French toast/toaster pastries
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- Figure 31: Total U.S. sales and forecast of waffles/pancakes/French toast/toaster pastries, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—Frozen Breakfast Entrées
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- Key points
- Frozen entrées able to achieve prerecession growth
- Sales and forecast of frozen breakfast entrées
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- Figure 32: Total U.S. sales and forecast of frozen breakfast entrées, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—Refrigerated Breakfast Entrées
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- Key points
- Sales and forecast of refrigerated breakfast entrées
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- Figure 33: Total U.S. sales and forecast of refrigerated breakfast entrées, at current prices, 2007-17
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- A tale of two retail channels in a very close race
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- Figure 34: Purchase locations for breakfast foods, by age, May 2012
- Sales of breakfast foods, by retail channel
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- Figure 35: Total retail sales of breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, 2010-12
Retail Channels—Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Supermarkets benefit from certain breakfast foods segments
- Creative merchandising and marketing plans help retain loyalty
- Supermarket sales of breakfast foods
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- Figure 36: Supermarket sales of breakfast foods, at current prices, 2007-12
Retail Channels—Other Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Other channels pose greater competition with expanded food offerings
- Other retail channel sales of breakfast foods
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- Figure 37: U.S. sales of breakfast foods, through other channels, at current prices, 2007-12
Retail Channels—Natural Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Insights
- Sales of breakfast foods in the natural channel
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- Figure 38: Natural supermarket sales of breakfast foods, at current prices, 2009-11*
- Figure 39: Natural supermarket sales of breakfast foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-11*
- Natural channel sales of breakfast foods by segment
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- Figure 40: Natural supermarket sales of breakfast foods, by segment, 2009 and 2011*
- Natural channel sales of breakfast foods by organic
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- Figure 41: Natural supermarket sales of breakfast foods, by organic, 2009 and 2011*
- Natural channel sales of selected breakfast food segments by gluten-free
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- Figure 42: Natural supermarket sales of bread, by gluten-free, 2009 and 2011*
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Kellogg brands’ makeover pays off
- Smithfield Foods banks on healthful launches, posts highest jump
- Grupo Bimbo leverages minis and bite sizes and succeeds
- Hostess files for bankruptcy; sales drop
- Private label posts dollar sales growth, maintaining strong presence
- Manufacturer FDMx sales of breakfast foods
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- Figure 43: Manufacturer FDMx sales of breakfast foods, 2011* and 2012*
Brand Share—Breakfast Meats
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- Key points
- Oscar Mayer sales slip; Smithfield Foods sees largest jump in sales
- Many brands focus on developing healthier alternatives
- Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of breakfast meats
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- Figure 44: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of breakfast meats, 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Sweet Breakfast Breads and Pastries
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- Key points
- Private label maintains; Entenmann’s shows most growth; others lose
- Manufacturer and brand sales of sweet breads and pastries
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- Figure 45: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of sweet breakfast breads and pastries, 2011-12
Brand Share—Waffles/Pancakes/French Toast/Toaster Pastries
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- Key points
- Kellogg dominates with biggest brand rejuvenation in its history
- Selected FDMx manufacturer, brand sales of waffles/pancakes/French toast/toaster pastries
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- Figure 46: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of waffles/pancakes/French toast/toaster pastries, 2011* and 2012*
Brand Share—Frozen Breakfast Entrées
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- Key points
- Sara Lee, with Jimmy Dean, still in the lead; but sales slide
- Selected FDMx manufacturer, brand sales of frozen breakfast entrées
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- Figure 47: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of frozen breakfast entrées, 2011* and 2012*
Brand Share—Refrigerated Breakfast Entrées
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- Key point
- Lack of innovation causes sales drop
- Selected FDMx manufacturer, brand sales of refrigerated breakfast entrées
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- Figure 48: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of refrigerated breakfast entrées, 2011 and 2012
Innovations and Innovators
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- Manufacturers continue focus on health and convenience
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- Figure 49: Interest in new breakfast foods products, by gender, May 2012
- Breakfast sweet breads and pastries focus on mini versions
- Packaged breakfast meats innovate with flavor, “low in,” substitutes
- Waffles/pancakes/French toast/toaster pastries
- Frozen breakfast entrées
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- Figure 50: Interest in new breakfast foods products, by gender, May 2012
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview of the brand landscape
- Kellogg revamps brands, ups ad spend
- Kellogg’s Eggo touts nutrition, convenience and taste
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- Figure 51: Kellogg Eggo Nutri-Grain, “Simply Delicious,” TV ad, 2011
- Figure 52: Brand analysis of Kellogg Nutri-Grain, 2012
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- Figure 53: Kellogg Eggo Wafflers, “Pack Flavors,” TV ad, 2012
- Figure 54: Brand analysis for Kellogg Eggo Wafflers, 2012
- Pop-Tarts deliver fun to dull mornings
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- Figure 55: Kellogg Pop-Tarts Wildlicious Fruit, “Fruity Morning,” TV ad, 2012
- Figure 56: Brand analysis of Pop-Tarts Wildlicious Fruit, 2012
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- Figure 57: Kellogg Pop-Tarts Mini Crisps, “Volcanic Eruption,” TV ad, 2012
- Figure 58: Brand analysis of Kellogg Pop-Tarts Mini Crisps, 2012
- Kellogg goes digital
- Kellogg creates a world of Pop-Tarts
- Smithfield Foods bets on bacon
- Farmland launches marketing blitz
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- Figure 59: Farmland bacon, “Sizzle,” TV ad, 2012
- Figure 60: Brand analysis of Farmland bacon, 2012
- Smithfield Foods doubles down on corporate social responsibility
- Smithfield Foods leverages consumers’ common interests
- Jimmy Dean reaches for the sun
- TV campaign emphasizes convenience and taste appealing for families
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- Figure 61: Jimmy Dean “Repeat Everything,” TV ad, 2012
- Figure 62: Brand analysis of Jimmy Dean Sausage, 2012
- Jimmy Dean goes social
- Oscar Mayer says “Yes” to Selects
- Wienermobile gets digital and has real-life followers
Breakfast Restaurant Trends
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- Key points
- Burritos and wraps experience the largest growth from 2009-12
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- Figure 63: Top breakfast dishes on menus, 2009-12
- Bacon continues in the lead; turkey bacon sees significant growth
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- Figure 64: Top 20 breakfast dishes on menus, by protein source, 2009-12
- Nutritional claims increase in number, but still in small number
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- Figure 65: Number of nutritional claims, 2009-12
Consumption of Breakfast Foods
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- Key points
- Convenient and speedy items are sought during the week
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- Figure 66: Consumption of breakfast foods, by types during the week and weekend, May 2012
- Older consumers under index on usage for most breakfast foods listed
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- Figure 67: Consumption of breakfast foods by types, by age, May 2012
- Households with children over index on most breakfast items surveyed
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- Figure 68: Consumption of breakfast foods by types and when eaten, by presence of children, May 2012
Important Health-Related Attributes
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- Key points
- More younger consumers deem important organic, gluten free, dairy free
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- Figure 69: Important health-related attributes when selecting breakfast foods, by age, May 2012
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- Figure 70: Interest in new breakfast foods products, by age, May 2012
- Certain health attributes need more focus from manufacturers
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- Figure 71: Consumption and frequency of consumption of breakfast foods by types during the week, by Important health-related attributes, May 2012
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- Figure 72: Consumption and frequency of consumption of breakfast foods by types during the week, by Important health-related attributes, May 2012
Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Multicultural groups tend to over index on usage of most breakfast foods
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- Figure 73: Consumption of breakfast foods by types, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
- More Hispanics socialize with friends for breakfast on the weekends
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- Figure 74: Attitudes toward breakfast eating, restaurant breakfast foods, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
- More Asians, Hispanics desire healthful, ethnic, organic products
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- Figure 75: Interest in new breakfast foods products, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
IRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Overview of breakfast meats
- Refrigerated bacon
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 76: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated bacon buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 77: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated bacon, by household penetration, 2011*
- Refrigerated breakfast sausage/ham
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 78: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated breakfast sausage/ham buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 79: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated breakfast sausage/ham, by household penetration, 2011*
- Overview of pastry/doughnuts
- Pastry/Danish/coffeecakes
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 80: Brand map, selected brands of pastry/Danish/coffeecakes, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 81: Key purchase measures for the top brands of pasty/Danish/coffeecakes, by household penetration, 2011*
- Doughnuts
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 82: Brand map, selected brands of doughnuts buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 83: Key purchase measures for the top brands of doughnuts, by household penetration, 2011*
- Overview of frozen breakfast food
- Frozen waffles
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 84: Brand map, selected brands of frozen waffles buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 85: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen waffles, by household penetration, 2011*
- Frozen breakfast entrées
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 86: Brand map, selected brands of frozen breakfast entrées, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 87: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen breakfast entrées, by household penetration, 2011*
Appendix—Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 88: Attitudes toward breakfast foods eating occasions and purchase behavior, by age, May 2012
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- Figure 89: Important health-related attributes when selecting breakfast foods, by gender, May 2012
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- Figure 90: Important health-related attributes when selecting breakfast foods, by presence of children in household, May 2012
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- Figure 91: Attitudes toward breakfast foods eating occasions and purchase behavior, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
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- Figure 92: Attitudes toward breakfast foods eating occasions and purchase behavior, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
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- Figure 93: Purchase locations for frozen snacks, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
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- Figure 94: Attitudes toward personal health and nutrition, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
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- Figure 95: Eating locations by weekday and weekend—Any eat locations, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
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- Figure 96: Real personal disposable income, January 2007-May 2012
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- Figure 97: Consumer sentiment index rate change, 2007-12
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- Figure 98: Population, by age, 2006-16
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- Figure 99: Age-adjusted prevalence of being overweight, obese, or extremely obese, among adults aged 20 or older, 1988-2008
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- Figure 100: Prevalence of obesity among children/teens aged 2-19, 1976-2008
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- Figure 101: Households, by presence of children younger than 18, 2001-11
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- Figure 102: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
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- Figure 103: Average number of children in household, by race/Hispanic origin of householder, 2011
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- Figure 104: Employed persons working at home by full- and part-time status and gender, 2011 annual averages
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- Figure 105: Households with and without presence of children, by percentage of total, 2001-11
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- Figure 106: Population percentage change, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
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Appendix—SymphonyIRI Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- SymphonyIRI Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix—Trade Associations
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