Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: UK value sales of beer, by segment, 2007-12
- Forecast
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- Figure 2: Forecast of UK value sales of beer, 2007-17
- Market factors
- Duty rises add greater pressures on brewers
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- Figure 3: RPI indexed annual change for all items and beer (on- and off-trade), 2000-12
- Economic pressures shifting consumers’ drinking habits
- A boom in craft brewers despite troubles of the wider market
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- Figure 4: Index of pub and brewery numbers, 2000-12
- Low consumer confidence continues to hamper the market
- Population changes pose threats and opportunities
- Companies, brands and innovation
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- Figure 5: Leading brands’ market shares in value sales of beer in the off-trade, 2011
- Innovation focuses on bringing the new to drinkers
- Beer brands continue to invest heavily in advertising
- The consumer
- Lager remains a popular drink
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- Figure 6: Usage of different types of beer within the past six months, October 2012
- Brand name is highly important for users when buying beer
- Lager achieves a unisex image
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- Figure 7: Users’ attitudes towards beer, October 2012
- Opportunities for craft beers, provided they can deliver high quality
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- Figure 8: Attitudes towards craft beer, October 2012
- Perceptions of heaviness weigh ales/stouts down
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can the on-trade beer market better convey value for money to curb its decline?
- Can lager soften its unhealthy associations?
- Can craft brewers balance exclusivity with wider appeal?
- Can British brewers follow the lead of cider and leverage regionality?
Trend Application
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- Factory Fear
- Guiding Choice
- 2015: Brand Intervention
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Duty rises driving up retail prices
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- Figure 9: Value and volume sales of the total UK alcoholic drinks market, 2007-12
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- Figure 10: RPI indexed annual change for all items and beer (on- and off-trade), 2000-12
- Figure 11: Most popular types of alcoholic drinks, in home and out of home, April 2012
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- Figure 12: Agreement with statements on locations for drinking, 2008-12
- Beer prices are becoming an escalating issue
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- Figure 13: UK excise duty rates for beer, cider, wine and spirits, 2003-12
- Barley prices add to upward pressure on beer price
- Loyalty dips as consumers focus on price
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- Figure 14: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2008-12
- The ongoing growth of craft brewing
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- Figure 15: UK breweries, by number, 2000-12
- Bridging the gender divide
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- Figure 16: Purchase of different types of beer, by gender, October 2012
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- Figure 17: Agreement with statements on binge drinking, 2008-12
- Beer seen as fit for purpose for a variety of occasions
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- Figure 18: Occasions for drinking in and out of the home, May 2012
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- Consumer confidence remains low despite the recession ending
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- Figure 19: Consumer Confidence Index, monthly, January 2007-November 2012
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- Figure 20: Hours of sunshine in the UK, by month, 2008-12
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- Figure 21: Frequency of drinking in pubs/bars, May 2012
- Do pubs still have a place in the community?
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- Figure 22: Index of pub and brewery numbers, 2000-12
- Government focus on a healthier population
- 25-34-year-olds to emerge as the saviour of the beer market…
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- Figure 23: Projected trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2012-17
- …while C2s also hold the key to growth
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- Figure 24: Changes in the adult socio-economic structure of the UK population, 2012-17
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Usage of many alcoholic drinks in decline
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- Figure 25: Usage of beer and competing drinks categories, in home and out of home, November 2012
- Falling usage of beer both in and out of home
- The UK is in fact a small player on the global market
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Premium and seasonal lager innovation
- Large brewers invest in world beers
- Craft breweries’ bold experiments generate new styles and flavours
- Celebrities are getting hands on with beer
- Other UK launches of note
- Global context: interesting beer launches from overseas in 2012
- The US leads the way…
- …selected examples from other countries
Market Size and Forecasts
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- Key points
- Rising value sales disguise a market going flat
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- Figure 26: UK value and volume sales of beer, at current and constant prices, 2007-17
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- Figure 27: Forecast of UK value sales of beer, 2007-17
- Volume sales continue to slide, with little sign of change
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- Figure 28: Forecast of UK volume sales of beer, 2007-17
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation and Forecasts
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- Key points
- Lager continues to dominate the beer market
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- Figure 29: Total value and volume sales of lager in the UK, at current and constant prices, 2007-17
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- Figure 30: Forecast of UK value sales of lager, 2007-17
- The rebirth of ale
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- Figure 31: Total value and volume sales of ale in the UK, at current and constant prices, 2007-17
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- Figure 32: Forecast of UK value sales of ale, 2007-17
- A dark future for stout
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- Figure 33: Total value and volume sales of stout in the UK, at current and constant prices, 2007-17
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- Figure 34: Forecast of UK value sales of stout, 2007-17
Market Share
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- Key points
- A golden performance for Foster’s in 2011
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- Figure 35: Market share, by value of top-selling beer brands in the off-trade, 2009-11
- Carling also flexes its premium muscles…
- …while Budweiser goes from strength to strength
- Kronenbourg turns the corner while Beck’s continues to flounder
- Guinness epitomises the woes of stout
- A third of beer sales are accounted for by the long tail of smaller brands
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- The off-trade closes the gap further in 2011…
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- Figure 36: UK value and volume sales of beer in the off-trade, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Figure 37: UK value and volume sales of beer in the on-trade, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
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- Figure 38: Volume sales of beer, by type, 2008-11
- …as the multiple grocers tighten their grip
- Pubs account for three quarters of on-trade sales
Companies and Products
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- AB InBev
- Camden Town Brewery (A craft brewer)
- Carlsberg
- Diageo
- Heineken
- Molson Coors
- SABMiller (Miller Brands)
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 39: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the beer sector, September 2012
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 40: Attitudes, by beer brand, September 2012
- Brand personality
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- Figure 41: Beer brand personality – macro image, September 2012
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- Figure 42: Beer brand personality – micro image, September 2012
- Brand experience
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- Figure 43: Beer brand usage, September 2012
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- Figure 44: Satisfaction with various beer brands, September 2012
- Figure 45: Satisfaction with various beer brands, September 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 46: Consideration of beer brands, September 2012
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- Figure 47: Consumer perceptions of current beer brand performance, September 2012
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- Figure 48: Beer brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, September 2012
- Brand index
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- Figure 49: Beer brand index, September 2012
- Figure 50: Beer brand index vs. recommendation, September 2012
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 51: Target groups, September 2012
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- Figure 52: Beer brand usage, by target groups, September 2012
- Figure 53: Beer brand usage, by target groups, September 2012 (continued)
- Group One – Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – Individualists
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Adspend on beer remains high
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- Figure 54: Above-the-line adspend in the UK beer market, 2008-12
- Lager dominates beer advertising
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- Figure 55: Advertising spending in the UK beer sector, by category, 2008-12
- AB InBev continues to lead the way
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- Figure 56: Leading advertisers in the UK beer category, by company, 2011
- Figure 57: Leading advertisers in the UK beer category, by company, 2009-12
- Four brands making notable investments in advertising
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- Figure 58: Leading brands advertised in the UK beer category, 2011
- Figure 59: Leading brands advertised in the UK beer category, 2009-12
- TV is the preferred medium for beer advertisers
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- Figure 60: Advertising in the UK beer category, by media, 2008-12
- Leveraging sports and heritage to market beer
Consumer – Trends in Usage
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- Key points
- Beer consumption in decline
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- Figure 61: Types of beer consumed in the last 12 months, 2008-12
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- Figure 62: Types of beer consumed in the last 12 months, by gender and age, 2012
- Beer retains strong associations with social occasions
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- Figure 63: In-home drinking occasions for beer/lager/ale/cider, 2012
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- Figure 64: Out-of-home drinking occasions for beer/lager/ale/cider, 2012
Consumer – Usage of Types of Beer
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- Key points
- Lager retains its popularity, particularly for in-home drinking
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- Figure 65: Usage of different types of beer within the past six months, October 2012
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- Figure 66: Usage of different types of beer in the last six months, in and out of home, October 2012
- Usage of ales/stouts continues to be heavily driven by men
- Craft beer on the rise
- Ginger beer also showing rapid growth
- Niche interest in other types of beers
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- Figure 67: Selected attitudes towards drinking low-alcohol drinks in the on-trade, August 2012
- Over a quarter of adults drink four or more types of beer
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- Figure 68: Repertoire of different types of beer drunk, October 2012
Consumer – Choice Factors
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- Key points
- Branding is an essential feature in the beer market
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- Figure 69: Choice factors when buying beer, October 2012
- Low price an important choice factor for half of beer drinkers
- Opportunities exist to tap into demand for adventurous and unique beers
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Lager
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- Key points
- Lager enjoys unisex appeal
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- Figure 70: Users’ attitudes towards beer, October 2012
- Three quarters of beer drinkers think it is suitable for men and women
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- Figure 71: Users’ attitudes towards the positioning of beer, October 2012
- Price is a worry for the majority of beer drinkers
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- Figure 72: Users’ attitudes towards the consumption of beer, October 2012
- Draught beer remains the leading format for quality
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- Figure 73: Users’ attitudes towards the taste of different types of beer, October 2012
- Branded/Tailored glassware can add value to beer
- Opportunities for gluten-free beer operators
- Scope for growth for lower-alcohol beers
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- Figure 74: Users’ attitudes towards the alcoholic content of beer, October 2012
- A third of beer drinkers exhibit connoisseurial attitudes
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- Figure 75: Users’ attitudes towards understanding more about beer, October 2012
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Craft Beer
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- Key points
- Opportunities for craft beers, provided they can deliver high quality
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- Figure 76: Attitudes towards craft beer, October 2012
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- Figure 77: Attitudes towards craft beer: users vs non-users, by agreement with statements, October 2012
- Over half of beer drinkers expect craft beer to deliver higher quality…
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- Figure 78: Attitudes towards the quality of craft beer, October 2012
- …while over half of users also want to see more craft beers available
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- Figure 79: Users’ attitudes towards the range and image of craft beer, October 2012
- Independence is an important feature of the craft landscape
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- Figure 80: Users’ attitudes towards the management of craft beer brands, October 2012
- Balancing exclusivity and accessibility is a challenge for craft brands
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- Figure 81: Users’ attitudes towards the price of craft beer, October 2012
- Craft beer in the US market
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- Figure 82: Agreement with selected statements on craft beer in the US, August 2012
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Ales/Stouts
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- Key points
- Perceptions of heaviness weigh ales/stouts down
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- Figure 83: Attitudes towards ales/stouts, October 2012
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- Figure 84: Users’ attitudes towards ales/stouts, October 2012
- Two in five beer drinkers think that ales/stouts are heavier than lager
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- Figure 85: Attitudes towards ales/stouts compared to lager, October 2012
- Ales/Stouts make progress in appealing to women
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- Figure 86: Attitudes towards the image of ales/stouts, October 2012
- A third of beer drinkers prefer draught ales/stouts to bottles/cans
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- Figure 87: Attitudes towards the taste of ales/stouts, October 2012
- Guest ales/stouts can drive interest
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- Figure 88: Attitudes towards the range/availability of ales/stouts, October 2012
Consumer – Target Groups
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- Key points
- Four target groups
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- Figure 89: Target groups for beer, October 2012
- Explorers (33%)
- Disengaged (25%)
- Unadventurous (23%)
- Craft Lovers (19%)
Appendix – Internal Market Environment
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- Figure 90: Names and locations of craft breweries in London, 2012
- Figure 91: Agreement with selected statements, by demographics, 2012
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- Figure 92: Agreement with selected statements, by demographics, 2012 (continued)
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Appendix – Broader Market Environment
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- Figure 93: Usage of alcoholic drinks in the last 12 months, by demographics, 2012
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Appendix – Competitive Context
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- Figure 94: Type of alcoholic drinks consumed in the last 12 months, by demographics, 2012
- Figure 95: Type of alcoholic drinks consumed in the last 12 months, by demographics, 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 96: Type of alcoholic drinks consumed in the last 12 months, by demographics, 2012 (continued)
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecasts
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- Figure 97: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total beer market, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 98: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total beer market, by volume, 2012-17
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Appendix – Market Segmentation and Forecasts
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- Figure 99: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the lager market, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 100: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the lager market, by volume, 2012-17
- Figure 101: UK volume sales of lager, 2007-17
- Figure 102: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the ale market, by value, 2012-17
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- Figure 103: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the ale market, by volume, 2012-17
- Figure 104: UK volume sales of ale, 2007-17
- Figure 105: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the stout market, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 106: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the stout market, by volume, 2012-17
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- Figure 107: UK volume sales of stout, 2007-17
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Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 108: Brand usage, September 2012
- Figure 109: Brand commitment, September 2012
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- Figure 110: Brand momentum, September 2012
- Figure 111: Brand diversity, September 2012
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- Figure 112: Brand satisfaction, September 2012
- Figure 113: Brand recommendation, September 2012
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- Figure 114: Brand attitude, September 2012
- Figure 115: Brand image – macro image, September 2012
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- Figure 116: Brand image – micro image, September 2012
- Figure 117: Profile of target groups, by demographics, September 2012
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- Figure 118: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, September 2012
- Figure 119: Brand usage, by target groups, September 2012
- Brand index
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- Figure 120: Brand index, September 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Trends in Usage
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- Figure 121: Types of beer consumed in the last 12 months, by demographics, 2012
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- Figure 122: Drinking occasions for beer/lager/ale/cider in home, by demographics, 2012
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- Figure 123: Drinking occasions for beer/lager/ale/cider in home, by demographics, 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 124: Drinking occasions for beer/lager/ale/cider out of home, by demographics, 2012
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- Figure 125: Drinking occasions for beer/lager/ale/cider out of home, by demographics, 2012 (continued)
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Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Types of Beer
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- Figure 126: Types of beer drunk in home, October 2012
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- Figure 127: Most popular types of beer drunk in home, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 128: Next most popular purchase of beer drunk in home, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 129: Types of beer drunk out of home, October 2012
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- Figure 130: Most popular types of beer drunk out of home, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 131: Next most popular types of beer drunk out of home, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 132: Non-usage of different types of beer within the past six months, October 2012
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- Figure 133: Non-usage of different types of beer within the past six months, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 134: Non-usage of different types of beer within the past six months, by demographics, October 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 135: Types of beer drunk, by repertoire of types of beer drunk, October 2012
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- Figure 136: Repertoire of types of beer drunk, by demographics, October 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Choice Factors
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- Figure 137: Most popular choice factors when buying beer, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 138: Next most popular choice factors when buying beer, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 139: Other choice factors when buying beer, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 140: Choice factors when buying beer, by most popular types of beer drunk in home, October 2012
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- Figure 141: Choice factors when buying beer, by next most popular purchase of different types of beer drunk in home, October 2012
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- Figure 142: Choice factors when buying beer, by most popular types of beer drunk out of home, October 2012
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- Figure 143: Choice factors when buying beer, by next most popular purchase of different types of beer drunk out of home, October 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Lager
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- Figure 144: Users' attitudes towards beer, October 2012
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- Figure 145: Agreement with the statements ‘I would cut back on the amount of beer/lager I drink if the price continues to rise’ and ‘I would drink gluten-free beers if they tasted as good as standard varieties’, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 146: Agreement with the statements ‘I would be more likely to drink lager in pubs/restaurants than at home’ and ‘I would drink lower-alcohol beers if they tasted as good as standard varieties’, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 147: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer the taste of flavoured or ‘golden’ beers to standard beers’ and ‘I would like information on how to match beers/lagers with different types of food’, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 148: Agreement with the statements ‘I would like to understand more about beer/lager’ and ‘I prefer beers/lagers to be served in glasses which are branded/specific to them’, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 149: Agreement with the statements ‘Lager is a drink which is suitable for both men and women’ and ‘Lager is more refreshing than other alcoholic drinks’, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 150: Agreement with the statements ‘Draught beer tastes better than beer in bottles/cans’ and ‘I prefer lagers with an ABV (alcohol content) of 5% or more to those with a lower ABV’, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 151: Users' attitudes towards beer, by most popular types of beer drunk in home, October 2012
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- Figure 152: Users' attitudes towards beer, by next most popular types of beer drunk in home, October 2012
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- Figure 153: Users' attitudes towards beer, by most popular types of beer drunk out of home, October 2012
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- Figure 154: Users' attitudes towards beer, by next most popular types of beer drunk out of home, October 2012
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- Figure 155: Users' attitudes towards beer, by attitudes towards craft beer, October 2012
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- Figure 156: Users' attitudes towards beer, by attitudes towards craft beer, October 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 157: Users' attitudes towards beer, by attitudes towards craft beer, October 2012 (continued)
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Craft Beer
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- Figure 158: Attitudes towards craft beer, October 2012
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- Figure 159: Users' attitudes towards craft beer, October 2012
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- Figure 160: Agreement with the statements ‘I would try more craft/micro-brew beer if I knew more about them’ and ‘Craft beer is too expensive’, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 161: Agreement with the statements ‘I expect/would expect craft beers to taste better than non-craft beers’ and ‘I am prepared to pay more for craft beers’, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 162: Agreement with the statements ‘It is important for craft beer producers to be independently owned’ and ‘I would expect craft beers to be better for drinking with food than non-craft beers’, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 163: Agreement with the statements ‘I would like to see a better range of craft beers in supermarkets and pubs/restaurants’ and ‘The wide variety of flavours of craft beers is appealing’, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 164: Agreement with the statements ‘I am less likely to try a craft-style beer from a larger beer manufacturer’ and ‘I am more likely to identify with craft beer than popular brands’, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 165: Agreement with the statements ‘I like to drink beers which are less widely drunk’ and ‘I prefer to drink regional beers to support local producers’, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 166: Attitudes towards craft beer, by choice factors when buying beer, October 2012
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- Figure 167: Attitudes towards craft beer, by choice factors when buying beer, October 2012 (continued)
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Ales/ Stouts
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- Figure 168: Attitudes towards ales/stouts, October 2012
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- Figure 169: Attitudes towards ales/stouts, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 170: Attitudes towards ales/stouts, by demographics, October 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 171: Users' attitudes towards ales/stouts, October 2012
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- Figure 172: Users' attitudes towards ales/stouts, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 173: Users' attitudes towards ales/stouts, by demographics, October 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 174: Attitudes towards ales/stouts, by choice factors when buying beer, October 2012
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- Figure 175: Attitudes towards ales/stouts, by choice factors when buying beer, October 2012 (continued)
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Appendix – Consumer – Target Groups
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- Figure 176: Target groups, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 177: Types of beer drunk, by target groups, October 2012
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- Figure 178: Choice factors when buying beer, by target groups, October 2012
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- Figure 179: Attitudes towards beer (any agreement with statements), by target groups, October 2012
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- Figure 180: Attitudes towards craft beer (any agreement with statements), by target groups, October 2012
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- Figure 181: Attitudes towards ales/stouts, by target groups, October 2012
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