Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
- UK consumers set to take over 100 million holidays by 2017
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- Figure 1: Estimated total holiday market volume, 2008-18
- Overseas market has failed to recover to 2008 levels
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- Figure 2: Estimated overseas market volume, 2008-18
- Domestic market still growing, but staycation boom is over
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- Figure 3: Estimated domestic market volume, 2008-18
- Market factors
- The line between full-service and low-cost airlines has been blurred
- Draft PTD revision grants extra financial protection to dynamic packages
- Pound strengthens against key outbound markets
- Tourist expenditure begins catch up with total expenditure
- High jet fuel prices and APD increases continue to dampen air travel
- The market has been spared any high-profile failures
- EC gives green light to in-flight calls and mobile broadband
- UK operators to scrap roaming charges by 2016
- Companies, brands and innovation
- easyJet and BA dominate with a combined market share of 66%
- Jet2holidays doubles capacity for the second year in a row
- The consumer
- Penetration of holidays is high, even among those struggling financially
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- Figure 4: Holidays taken in the last 12 months, November 2013
- Three quarters of holidays are over three nights in length
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- Figure 5: Length of last holiday taken, November 2013
- 58% of holidaymakers booked their last holiday independently
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- Figure 6: Booking method for last holiday taken, November 2013
- Family and beach holidays are the most popular holiday types
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- Figure 7: Last holiday type, November 2013
- Over half of holidaymakers book less than two months in advance
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- Figure 8: Booking lead time for last holiday taken, November 2013
- A third spent over £1,000 on their last holiday
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- Figure 9: Amount spent on last holiday taken, November 2013
- Four in 10 averse to holiday-related debt
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- Figure 10: Attitudes towards paying for a holiday, by holidays taken in the last 12 months, November 2013
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can brands leverage consumer aversion to debt?
- How will PTD reform impact the outbound holiday market?
- How will economic recovery affect the all-inclusive market?
- What can brands to do encourage early bookings?
Trend Application
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- Moral Brands
- Let's Make a Deal
- Mintel Futures: Generation Next
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- The line between full-service and low-cost airlines has been blurred
- Draft PTD revision grants extra financial protection to dynamic packages
- ATOL regime threatened as Lowcost Travel Group relocates to Spain
- Pound strengthens against key outbound markets
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- Figure 11: Average monthly midpoint exchange rates for GBP against key currencies, by % change, 2009-13
- Tourist expenditure begins catch up with total expenditure
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- Figure 12: Seasonally adjusted UK tourist expenditure abroad vs. total household final consumption expenditure, 2003-13
- High jet fuel prices and APD increases continue to dampen air travel
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- Figure 13: Index of jet fuel prices, Pound Sterling per gallon, January 2010-September 2013
- Market has spared high-profile failures
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- Figure 14: ATOL tour operator failures/closures in the UK, October 2012-November 2013
- EC gives green light to in-flight calls and mobile broadband
- UK operators to scrap roaming charges by 2016
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Momondo launches Flight Insight
- Cheaper flights if All Blacks thrash England
- British Airways’ billboards interact with their planes
- Gate-to-gate Wi-Fi for passengers
- Loco2.com incorporates pan-European train travel into a single booking
- The electronic bag-tag
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- UK consumers set to take over 100 million holidays by 2017
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- Figure 15: Estimated total holiday market volume and value, 2008-18
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- Figure 16: Estimated total holiday market volume, 2008-18
- Figure 17: Estimated total holiday market value, 2008-18
- Overseas market has failed to recover to 2008 levels
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- Figure 18: Estimated overseas market volume and value, 2008-18
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- Figure 19: Estimated overseas market volume, 2008-18
- Figure 20: Estimated overseas market value, 2008-18
- Domestic market still growing, but staycation boom is over
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- Figure 21: Estimated domestic market volume and value, 2008-18
- Figure 22: Estimated domestic market volume, 2008-18
- Figure 23: Estimated domestic market value, 2008-18
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Overseas package segment has performed well
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- Figure 24: Volume overseas holidays, independent vs non-independent, 2009-13
- Long-haul segment failed to recover in 2013
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- Figure 25: Volume of overseas holidays, long-haul vs short-haul, 2009-13
- Tunnel segment bucks downward trend and outperforms air and sea
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- Figure 26: Volume of overseas holidays, by transport method, 2009-13
- Italy overtakes US and Greece as third most visited country
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- Figure 27: Top 10 overseas holiday destinations, by volume, 2012 and 2013
- Spain attracts 250,000 extra holidaymakers
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- Figure 28: Best- and worst-performing overseas holiday destinations, by volume change, 2012 and 2013
Market Share
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- Key points
- easyJet and BA dominate with a combined market share of 66%
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- Figure 29: Passengers uplifted, by top 10 UK airlines, 2012 and 2013
- Jet2holidays doubles capacity for the second year in a row
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- Figure 30: Passengers licensed under ATOL protection, by top 10 ATOL holders, 2011-13
The Consumer – Holidays Taken in the Last Year
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- Key points
- Penetration of holidays is high, even among those struggling financially
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- Figure 31: Holidays taken in the last 12 months, November 2013
The Consumer – Length of Holiday
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- Key points
- Three quarters of holidays are over three nights in length
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- Figure 32: Length of last holiday taken, November 2013
- Seven-night commodity breaks have a 28% share of the European market
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- Figure 33: Length of last holiday taken, by last holidays taken in the last 12 months, November 2013
The Consumer – Holiday Booking Method
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- Key points
- Independent holidays dominate
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- Figure 34: Booking method for last holiday taken, November 2013
- A third of European holidays are all-inclusive
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- Figure 35: Booking method for last holiday taken, by last holidays taken in the last 12 months, November 2013
The Consumer – Holiday Type
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- Key points
- Family and beach holidays are the most popular holiday types
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- Figure 36: Last holiday type, November 2013
- 41% of holidays to Europe beach holidays
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- Figure 37: Top five last holiday types, by last holidays taken in the last 12 months, November 2013
- Independent bookings dominate all holiday types bar beach breaks
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- Figure 38: Booking method for last holiday taken, by top five last holiday types, November 2013
- City breaks most likely to be short
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- Figure 39: Length of last holiday taken, by top five last holiday types, November 2013
The Consumer – Booking Lead Time
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- Key points
- Over half book less than two months in advance
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- Figure 40: Booking lead time for last holiday taken, November 2013
- A quarter of holidays to Europe booked within a month of travel
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- Figure 41: Booking lead time for last holiday taken, by last holiday taken in the last 12 months, November 2013
- Over half of short breaks booked within a month of travel
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- Figure 42: Booking lead time for last holiday taken, by length of last holiday taken, November 2013
- Little correlation between lead time and booking method
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- Figure 43: Booking lead time for last holiday taken, by booking method for last holiday taken, November 2013
The Consumer – Expenditure on Holiday
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- Key points
- A third of holidaymakers spent over £1,000
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- Figure 44: Amount spent on last holiday taken, November 2013
- Over half of domestic holidaymakers spent under £500
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- Figure 45: Amount spent on last holiday taken, by last holiday taken in the last 12 months, November 2013
- Seven-night breaks see the broadest range of expenditure
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- Figure 46: Amount spent on last holiday taken, by length of last holiday taken, November 2013
- Package holidaymakers twice as likely to spend over £2,000
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- Figure 47: Amount spent on last holiday taken, by booking method for last holiday taken, November 2013
The Consumer – Attitudes towards Paying For a Holiday
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- Key points
- Four in 10 averse to holiday-related debt
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- Figure 48: Attitudes towards paying for a holiday, by holidays taken in the last 12 months, November 2013
- A fifth would take an annual holiday regardless of finances
- Only a third save up before booking
- One in 10 incur interest when paying off credit
- Nearly a fifth of package holidaymakers take advantage of low-deposit schemes
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- Figure 49: Attitudes towards paying for a holiday, by booking method for last holiday taken, November 2013
- Perceptions of good value are a key driver behind booking lead times
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- Figure 50: Attitudes towards paying for a holiday, by booking lead time for last holiday taken, November 2013
Appendix – The Consumer – Holidays Taken in the Last Year
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- Figure 51: Holidays taken in the last 12 months, November 2013
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- Figure 52: Holidays taken in the last 12 months, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 53: Last holiday taken, by demographics, November 2013
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Appendix – The Consumer – Length of Holiday
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- Figure 54: Length of last holiday taken, November 2013
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- Figure 55: Length of last holiday taken, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 56: Length of last holiday taken, by demographics, November 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 57: Length of last holiday taken, by demographics, November 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 58: Length of last holiday taken, by last holiday taken, November 2013
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Appendix – The Consumer – Holiday Booking Method
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- Figure 59: Booking method for last holiday taken, November 2013
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- Figure 60: Booking method for last holiday taken, by last holiday taken, November 2013
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- Figure 61: Length of last holiday taken, by booking method for last holiday taken, November 2013
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- Figure 62: Length of last holiday taken, by booking method for last holiday taken, November 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 63: Booking method for last holiday taken, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 64: Booking method for last holiday taken, by demographics, November 2013 (continued)
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Appendix – The Consumer – Holiday Type
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- Figure 65: Last holiday type, November 2013
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- Figure 66: Last holiday type, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 67: Last holiday type, by demographics, November 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 68: Last holiday type, by last holiday taken, November 2013
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- Figure 69: Booking method for last holiday taken, by last holiday type, November 2013
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- Figure 70: Length of last holiday taken, by last holiday type, November 2013
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Appendix – The Consumer – Booking Lead Time
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- Figure 71: Booking lead time for last holiday taken, November 2013
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- Figure 72: Booking lead time for last holiday taken, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 73: Booking lead time for last holiday taken, by demographics, November 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 74: Booking lead time for last holiday taken, by last holiday taken, November 2013
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- Figure 75: Booking lead time for last holiday taken, by length of last holiday taken, November 2013
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- Figure 76: Booking lead time for last holiday taken, by length of last holiday taken, November 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 77: Booking lead time for last holiday taken, by booking method for last holiday taken, November 2013
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- Figure 78: Booking lead time for last holiday taken, by booking method for last holiday taken, November 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 79: Booking lead time for last holiday taken, by last holiday type, November 2013
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Appendix – The Consumer – Expenditure on Holiday
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- Figure 80: Amount spent on last holiday taken, November 2013
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- Figure 81: Amount spent on last holiday taken, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 82: Amount spent on last holiday taken, by demographics, November 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 83: Amount spent on last holiday taken, by last holiday taken, November 2013
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- Figure 84: Amount spent on last holiday taken, by length of last holiday taken, November 2013
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- Figure 85: Amount spent on last holiday taken, by length of last holiday taken, November 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 86: Amount spent on last holiday taken, by booking method for last holiday taken, November 2013
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- Figure 87: Amount spent on last holiday taken, by booking method for last holiday taken, November 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 88: Amount spent on last holiday taken, by last holiday type, November 2013
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- Figure 89: Amount spent on last holiday taken, by booking lead time for last holiday taken, November 2013
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- Figure 90: Amount spent on last holiday taken, by booking lead time for last holiday taken, November 2013 (continued)
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Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes towards Paying For a Holiday
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- Figure 91: Attitudes towards paying for a holiday, November 2013
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- Figure 92: Attitudes towards paying for a holiday, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 93: Attitudes towards paying for a holiday, by demographics, November 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 94: Attitudes towards paying for a holiday, by booking method for last holiday taken, November 2013
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- Figure 95: Attitudes towards paying for a holiday, by booking method for last holiday taken, November 2013 (continued)
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