Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Volume set to grow 14% over the next five years
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- Figure 1: Forecast volume of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2008-18
- Lower cost of entry will see value grow at a slower rate
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- Figure 2: Forecast value of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2008-18
- Market factors
- No-frills, long-haul airfares should increase accessibility in 2014
- Fuel prices remain high but airlines are investing in more efficient planes
- APD increases continue to inflate the cost of flying
- Pound performs well against most key long-haul currencies
- Only one ABTA member still levies a surcharge
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Virgin Atlantic seeks to differentiate by showcasing wearable tech
- Virgin America launches in-flight social network
- American Express partners with TripAdvisor
- Virgin Australia introduces Bring your own device wireless in-flight entertainment
- American Airlines offers bundled fare options
- The consumer
- Over half of adults have taken a long-haul holiday in the last five years
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- Figure 3: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014
- Full-service airlines dominate the long-haul market
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- Figure 4: Transport used on last long-haul holiday, January 2014
- High airfares are a key barrier to growth
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- Figure 5: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2014
- Airline reputation and in-flight experience outweigh demand for low price
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- Figure 6: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, January 2014
- Legroom is the primary demand for long-distance flights
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- Figure 7: Demand for in-flight features, January 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- How will no-frills, long-haul airfares impact the market?
- The facts
- The implications
- How can airlines react to shifting consumer expectations?
- The facts
- The implications
Trend Application
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- Transumers
- Guiding Choice
- Mintel Futures: Generation Next
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- No-frills, long-haul airfares should increase accessibility in 2014
- Fuel prices remain high but airlines are investing in more efficient planes
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- Figure 8: Jet fuel prices, GBP per gallon, January 2009-December 2013
- APD increases continue to inflate the cost of flying
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- Figure 9: Air passenger duty rates, 2012-14
- Pound performs well against most key long-haul currencies
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- Figure 10: Foreign exchange rate index, GBP against key long-haul destination currencies, 2012-14
- Demand for Vietnamese Dong doubled in 2013
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- Figure 11: Post Office 10 fastest-growing tourist currencies, 2013
- Australia and New Zealand show the highest holiday costs
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- Figure 12: Post Office worldwide holiday costs barometer, January 2014
- Only one ABTA member still levies a surcharge
Who's Innovating?
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- Key points
- Virgin Atlantic seeks to differentiate by showcasing wearable tech
- Virgin America launches in-flight social network
- American Express partners with TripAdvisor
- Virgin Australia introduces BYOD wireless in-flight entertainment
- American Airlines offers bundled fare options
- WestJet Christmas video goes viral
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Market volume is down 19% since 2008
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- Figure 13: Forecast volume and value of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2008-18
- Volume set to grow 14% over the next five years
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- Figure 14: Forecast volume of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2008-18
- Lower cost to entry will see value grow at a slower rate
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- Figure 15: Forecast value of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2008-18
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Independent segment returned to growth in 2013
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- Figure 16: Independent vs. non-independent long-haul holidays, by volume, 2008-13
- Long-haul flight holidays grew 2% in 2013
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- Figure 17: Long-haul holiday trips taken, by transport type, 2008-13
- US dominance continues, but underperforms the wider market
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- Figure 18: Top 10 long-haul holiday destinations, by volume, years ended 30 September 2012 and 2013
- Spending in US accounts for 30% of total long-haul expenditure
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- Figure 19: Top 10 long-haul holiday destinations, by value, years ended 30 September 2012 and 2013
- Unrest in Thailand could dampen tourist demand
- Mexico was the strongest growth destination in 2013
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- Figure 20: Best- and worst-performing destinations, by volume change, years ended 30 September 2012 and 2013
- Egyptian tourism industry continues to suffer
- India’s visa-on-arrival scheme could boost tourist interest
The Consumer – Long-haul Holidays Taken in the Last Five Years
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- Key points
- Over half of adults have taken a long-haul holiday in the last five years
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- Figure 21: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014
- All-inclusive and beach holidays are the dominant long-haul holiday types
- Under-35s are a key demographic for the long-haul market
- Families are also key, but the nuclear family is no longer the norm
The Consumer – Transport Used on Last Long-haul Holiday
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- Key points
- Full-service airlines dominate the long-haul market
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- Figure 22: Transport used on last long-haul holiday, January 2014
- Under-35s are key for the burgeoning low-cost, long-haul model
- ABs are the most likely to have flown full-service
The Consumer – Attitudes towards Long-haul Holidays
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- Key points
- High airfares are a key barrier to growth
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- Figure 23: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2014
- Bullish attitudes support the case for a sustained recovery…
- …but financial barriers will continue to impede growth
- Influence of under-35s threatens to disrupt the traditional long-haul market
- Outlook for the low-cost, long-haul model is mixed
The Consumer – Attitudes towards Flying Long-haul
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- Key points
- Airline reputation and in-flight experience outweigh demand for low price
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- Figure 24: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, January 2014
- Older people are the least likely to accept the low-cost, long-haul model
- Low-cost flyers provide a solid base for new budget brands to expand
- Lower earners less likely to value in-flight experience and airline reputation
The Consumer – Demand for In-flight Features
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- Key points
- Legroom is the primary demand for long-distance flights
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- Figure 25: Demand for in-flight features, January 2014
- Entertainment provides an opportunity to integrate and differentiate
- Airlines can cut costs by targeting BYOD generation
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 26: Forecast volume of long-haul holidays taken, by UK residents, 2013-18
- Figure 27: Forecast value of long-haul holidays taken, by UK residents, 2013-18
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Appendix – The Consumer – Long-haul Holidays Taken in the Last Five Years
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- Figure 28: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014
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- Figure 29: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 30: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, by demographics, January 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 31: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, by demographics, January 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 32: Last long-haul holiday taken, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 33: Last long-haul holiday taken, by demographics, January 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 34: Last long-haul holiday taken, by demographics, January 2014 (continued)
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Appendix – The Consumer – Transport Used on Last Long-haul Holiday
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- Figure 35: Transport used on last long-haul holiday, January 2014
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- Figure 36: Transport used on last long-haul holiday, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 37: Transport used on last long-haul holiday, by last long-haul holiday taken, January 2014
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- Figure 38: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, by transport used on last long-haul holiday, January 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes towards Long-haul Holidays
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- Figure 39: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2014
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- Figure 40: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 41: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by demographics, January 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 42: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014
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- Figure 43: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 44: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 45: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, by attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2014
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- Figure 46: Long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, by attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 47: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, by attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2014
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- Figure 48: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, by attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2014 (continued)
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Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes towards Flying Long-haul
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- Figure 49: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, January 2014
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- Figure 50: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 51: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, by demographics, January 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 52: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, by transport used on last long-haul holiday, January 2014
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- Figure 53: Transport used on last long-haul holiday, by attitudes towards flying long-haul, January 2014
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- Figure 54: Transport used on last long-haul holiday, by attitudes towards flying long-haul, January 2014 (continued)
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Appendix – The Consumer – Demand for In-flight Features
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- Figure 55: Demand for in-flight features, January 2014
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- Figure 56: Demand for in-flight features, by demographics, January 2014
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- Figure 57: Demand for in-flight features, by demographics, January 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 58: Demand for in-flight features, by long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014
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- Figure 59: Demand for in-flight features, by long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 60: Demand for in-flight features, by long-haul holidays taken in the last five years, January 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 61: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, by demand for in-flight features, January 2014
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- Figure 62: Attitudes towards flying long-haul, by demand for in-flight features, January 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 63: Demand for in-flight features, by attitudes towards flying long-haul, January 2014
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- Figure 64: Demand for in-flight features, by attitudes towards flying long-haul, January 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 65: Demand for in-flight features, by transport used on last long-haul holiday, January 2014
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