Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- After years of growth, category sales have stalled
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nail color and care, at current prices, 2009-19
- Women less engaged in the nail category
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- Figure 2: Mean (#) use of nail products among women and teens, April 2008-June 2014
- Women are returning to the salon
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- Figure 3: Nail services done at a salon, October 2013 and November 2014
- The opportunities
- Focus on women aged 25-34
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- Figure 4: Frequency of doing nails, by women aged 18-24 and 25-34, November 2014
- Highlight natural and gentle claims
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- Figure 5: Attitudes toward ingredients in nail products, November 2014
- Figure 6: Interest in natural nail product concepts, November 2014
- Emphasize ease of use and convenience
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- Figure 7: Attitudes toward use of nail products and nail maintenance, November 2014
- Figure 8: Interest in convenient nail products and services, November 2014
- What we think
The Market – What You Need to Know
Market Size and Forecast
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- Trend-driven nature of nail category Impacts historic and projected sales performance
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- Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nail color and care, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of nail color and care, at current prices, 2009-19
- Historical sales trends of nail color and care
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- Figure 11: Percent change in sales of nail color and care products, 2000-14
Market Breakdown
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- Figure 12: Sales of nail color and care, by segment share, 2014
- Figure 13: Sales of nail color and care, by segment, 2009-14
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Market Perspective
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- Figure 14: Sales of color cosmetics, by segment, 2012 and 2014
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Market Factors
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- Economy continues to stabilize
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- Figure 15: Types of nail services done – At a salon, by household income, November 2014
- Declining participation in the nail category
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- Figure 16: Nail product usage among women and teens, April 2008-June 2014
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- Figure 17: Mean (#) use of nail products among women and teens, April 2008-June 2014
- Women returning to more classic nail polish shades
Key Players – What You Need to Know
Consistent With Sales Declines, Leading Brands Struggle
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- Manufacturer sales of nail color and care
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- Figure 18: Leading manufacturer sales of nail color and care, 2013 and 2014
What’s Working?
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- Gel hybrid products
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- Figure 19: MULO sales of Sally Hansen Miracle Gel Nail Polish, 52 weeks ending Oct. 5, 2014
- Unique collaborations
- Nail treatments
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- Figure 20: MULO sales of select Sally Hansen nail treatments, 52 weeks ending Oct. 5, 2014
What’s Struggling?
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- Special effect polish
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- Figure 21: MULO sales of select special effect nail polishes, 2011-14
- Artificial nails
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- Figure 22: MULO sales of select Broadway Nails artificial nails, 2011-14
- Nail polish strips
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- Figure 23: MULO sales of Sally Hansen Salon Effects Nail Polish Strips, 2011-14
What’s Next?
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- Convenient forms
- Natural products
- Super premium polish
- Nail polish as wearable tech
The Consumer - What You Need to Know
Types of Nail Services Done
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- Pedicures, single color manicures are most common nail services
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- Figure 24: Types of nail services done, November 2014
Salon and At-home Nail Services
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- Growing reliance on the salon is leading to mixed results for the at-home market
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- Figure 25: Nail services done at a salon, October 2013 and November 2014
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- Figure 26: Nail services done myself, October 2013 and November 2014
Nail Products Used
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- Colored polish is most used nail product
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- Figure 27: Nail products used, by age, November 2014
Frequency of Doing Nails
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- Opportunity to focus marketing efforts on women aged 25-34
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- Figure 28: Frequency of doing nails, by age, November 2014
Number of Nail Polishes Owned and Used
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- Women own more nail polish than they use
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- Figure 29: Number of nail polishes owned and used, November 2014
Time Spent on Nails
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- Young women spending less time in the nail category
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- Figure 30: Time spent on nails, November 2014
Attitudes Toward Nail Products
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- Despite upsides, women express some concerns about nail care
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- Figure 31: Select attitudes toward nail products, by age, November 2014
Shopping for Nail Products
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- Women inclined to stick with what they like
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- Figure 32: Select attitudes toward shopping for nail products, by age, November 2014
Interest in Trying Nail Product Concepts
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- Natural, convenience-driven concepts generate strong interest
- Interest in natural concepts fueled by concerns about ingredient safety
- Smaller, easy-to-use products translate to convenience and eco-consciousness
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- Figure 33: Interest in trying select nail product concepts, by age, November 2014
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 34: Total US sales and forecast of nail color and care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Figure 35: Total US retail sales of nail color and care, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Figure 36: Total US retail sales of nail color and care, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14"
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- Figure 37: Total US retail sales of nail color and care, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Figure 38: Changes in DPI (disposable personal income), 2007-14
- Figure 39: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, 2007-14
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- Figure 40: Summary of bases for nail product usage and mean (#) usage of nail products, April 2008-June 2014
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 41: MULO sales of nail polish, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Figure 42: MULO sales of nail accessories and implements, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
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- Figure 43: MULO sales of nail treatments, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Figure 44: MULO sales of artificial nails and accessories, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
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- Figure 45: MULO sales of nail polish removers, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Figure 46: Brands of nail products used, April 2008-June 2014
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- Figure 47: Frequency of use, April 2008-June 2014
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- Figure 48: Brands of nail products used among teen girls, April 2008-June 2014
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- Figure 49: Frequency of use among teen girls, April 2008-June 2014
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