Table of Contents
Data Sources
Abbreviations
Issues in the Market
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- Political strife and terrorism
- Sharing-economy impact
- Client disruption and lawsuits
- EU regulation and subsidies
Global Summary
-
- Key points
- Demographic trends
-
- Figure 1: Worldwide population distribution by age cohort, in millions, 2013 & 2050
- Seniors not ‘Millennials’ are the growth market
- Economy
-
- Figure 2: World Economic Outlook projections, year-on-year % change unless otherwise noted, July 2015
- Exchange rates
-
- Figure 3: Currency rate forecast, 23 June 2015
- Tourism flows
-
- Figure 4: Tourist arrivals* in the principal European countries, in millions, 2008-18
- Tourism arrivals across Europe
-
- Figure 5: Arrivals in tourist accommodation establishments in European countries, 2009-13
- Departure rate by country
-
- Figure 6: Percentage of population taking a trip for personal purposes of 4 nights or more during the year, by European country, 2009-13
- Spending on travel and tourism
-
- Figure 7: Spending on travel & tourism in Europe, in US$ millions, 2014 & 2025
Political Strife and Terrorism
-
- Key points
- Grexit on the horizon?
- Booking.com figures show the trend
-
- Figure 8: Room nights reserved & cancelled in Greek accommodation establishments, 1 June-19 July 2015
- Tunisia in headlines again
- Terrorist attack at beach resort hotel
- Tunisia losing tourists
- German tourists stay but bookings drop
- Winter schedules not altered yet
- Tour-operator margins hit
- TUI UK offers special concessions
- Thomas Cook
Sharing-Economy Impact
-
- Key points
- Peer-to-peer accommodation rental websites
- Airbnb’s host cancellation policy
- Ibiza in mid-July?
-
- Figure 9: Holiday rentals offered by HomeAway for the week of 15-22 July 2015 as of 20 June 2015
- Evidence of disruption
- Apartment rental listings’ top hotel rooms in Spain
- Less job creation and lost tax revenue
- Car-sharing platforms
- BlaBlaCar is consolidating the sector
- Financing
- Expansion strategy
- Eastern Europe a fertile field for car-sharing expansion
- US not on radar screen
- Challenge for growth
Client Disruption and Lawsuits
-
- Key points
- Disruptive air passengers on the rise
- 14 passengers offloaded
- Ryanair has banned booze on Scotland to Ibiza flights
- Ryanair passengers on rampage again
- Calls to get tough with unruly passengers
- A national database of disruptive passengers
- Mishaps and disasters lead to lawsuits
- Suing for a broken ankle
- Food poisoning
- Furious cruise passengers sue
- Man speared through eye by hotel parasol
- The case of Bobby and Christi Shepherd
- Media campaign against Thomas Cook
- Conclusion
EU Regulation and Subsidies
-
- Key points
- European Package Travel Directive
- ‘Linked travel arrangements’ to be covered
- ABTA reaction
- Strengthening consumer protection
- EU regulation catching up with the technology
- A more level playing field
- Business to leak outside EU?
- EU airlines create lobby group
- EU subsidies for tourism
- The European Regional Development Fund
- Type and level of funding
- The Cohesion Fund
- Type and level of funding
- The European Social Fund
- Type and level of funding
- Maltese training programme
- The ‘European Agriculture Fund for Rural Development’
- Type and level of funding
- The European Maritime and Fisheries Fund
- Type of tourism-related actions eligible for funding
- Type and level of funding
- LIFE
- Type of tourism-related actions eligible for funding
- Type and level of funding
- Tourism for conservation in the Burren and Cliffs of Moher geopark (Ireland)
- Horizon 2020
- Type and level of funding
- COSME
- Type and level of funding
- Creative Europe
- Type and level of funding
- Erasmus
- Type and level of funding
- Employment and Social Innovation
- Type and level of funding
Holiday Hotel Markets
-
- Key points
- Budget holiday hotels
- Egypt
-
- Figure 10: Top 10 holiday hotel groups* in Egypt, 2013
- Germany
-
- Figure 11: Top 10 holiday hotel groups* in Germany, 2013
- Greece
-
- Figure 12: Top 10 holiday hotel groups* in Greece, 2013
- Portugal
-
- Figure 13: Top 10 holiday hotel groups* in Portugal, 2013
- Spain
-
- Figure 14: Top 10 holiday hotel groups* in Spain, 2013
- Tunisia
-
- Figure 15: Top 10 holiday hotel groups* in Tunisia, 2013
- Turkey
-
- Figure 16: Top 10 holiday hotel groups* in Turkey, 2013
Distribution
-
- Key points
-
- Figure 17: Total European gross bookings, 2006-16
- Channel breakdown by travel supplier segment
-
- Figure 18: Distribution channel breakdown, by travel supplier category, 2013
- OTA market shares
-
- Figure 19: OTA share of total European market & shares of OTA market, 2012-16
- OTA market shares for hotel bookings by country
- Booking’s dominance
-
- Figure 20: Market shares of the three major European OTAs, by selected countries, 2014
- Major country markets
-
- Figure 21: Forecasted OTA bookings by the three major European country markets in 2016
- Mobile bookings
-
- Figure 22: Mobile share of gross travel bookings, 2011-16
- OTA regulation
- Price parity broken down
- The ‘Macron Law’ voted
- ETTSA attacks the hotel industry
- Italy to take legal action
Cruising
-
- Key points
- Low penetration rate
- Europe continues to dominate ship building
- Slowing growth trend
-
- Figure 23: European passenger statistics, 2010-14
- Trend in European cruise market by major market
-
- Figure 24: Trend in key European cruise markets, 2012-14
- UK cruise-passenger numbers fall for the first time
- European cruise ports
-
- Figure 25: Revenue passengers, by major cruise port, 2014
- Home ports
-
- Figure 26: Trend in revenue passengers, by major cruise home port, 2012-14
- Ports of call
- Mediterranean
-
- Figure 27: Trend in major Mediterranean ports of call, 2012-14
-
- Figure 28: Cruise lines offering itineraries & schedules to La Spezia, 2015
- Atlantic and Northern Europe
-
- Figure 29: Trend in major Atlantic & Northern European ports of call, 2012-14
- The European cruise fleet
- The Mediterranean
- Northern Europe – Baltic
- Cruise-ship pipeline and investment 2015-18
-
- Figure 30: Cruise-ship pipeline, 2015-18
- Major players
- Carnival Cruise Lines
- UK brands
- Continental Europe
- Royal Caribbean Cruises
- Royal Caribbean International
- Celebrity Cruises
- Azamara Club Cruises
- Pullmantur
- CDF Croisières de France
- TUI Cruises
- TUI’s cruises
- Hapag-Lloyd Kreuzfahrten
- Hapag-Lloyd Cruises Club
- TUI Cruises
- Cruise performance
-
- Figure 31: Financial performance of TUI’s cruise activities (Hapag-Lloyd & TUI Cruises), FY 2009-14
Major Players
-
- Key points
-
- Figure 32: Top 10 European travel companies, FYs 2013 & 2014
TUI Group
-
- SWOT analysis
-
- Figure 33: TUI Group’s share price since listing on 17 December 2014, 3 July 2015
- TUI AG has acquired TUI Travel plc
- Well received in the market initially
- ...but recent events have pushed the share price down
- Synergies to be had
- Tour operating
- Online accommodation
- TUI exiting B2C accommodation distribution
- TUI closes AsiaRooms
- LateRooms.com up for sale
- Brand consolidation
- Brand migration
- Brand value soars
- Interbrand’s methodology
- Financial analysis
- Role of brand
- Brand strength
- A new distribution initiative
- Thomson upgrades Dreamliner fleet
- TUI Hotels & Resorts
-
- Figure 34: TUI Hotels & Resorts hotel portfolio, 2014
-
- Figure 35: TUI Hotels & Resorts hotel portfolio, 2014 (continued)
- Robinson to expand in three regions
- TUI exits Greece before Grexit
- TUI pulling out of Australian adventure
- Key performance indicators
-
- Figure 36: TUI’s tour operation KPIs with recent results, FY 2012-FY 2014
- Results FY 2010-FY 2014
-
- Figure 37: TUI Group results, FY 2009-FY 2014
- Outlook
- Regional and sectorial half-year results
- Outlook for FY 2014/15
-
- Figure 38: Outlook for TUI Group revenues & profits for FY 2014/15
- Long-haul, hotels and cruises
Thomas Cook
-
- SWOT analysis
- Shedding assets
-
- Figure 39: Thomas Cook’s share price for the 5-year period ending 3 July 2015
- Asset sales during March 2013-September 2014
- Thomas Cook Egypt and Thomas Cook Lebanon
- Thomas Cook CFX Limited
- Neilson Active Holidays Limited
- Essential Travel Limited
- Elegant Resorts Limited
- Gold Medal Limited
- NATS Holding Limited
- Corporate Business Travel
- Intourist Egypt
- Thomas Cook Canada Inc. and Thomas Cook USA Holdings Inc.
- Thomas Cook promotes brand through social media
- Abrupt departure at the top
- A shot in the arm from Fosun
- Cook strengthens ties with Club Med
- Thomas Cook Hotels & Resorts
-
- Figure 40: Thomas Cook Hotels & Resorts’ hotel portfolio, 2014
- Revenues down on disposals, currency and Egypt
-
- Figure 41: Summary of results (in £m unless otherwise stated), for FY 2013 & 2014
- Improved gross margin
- Outlook
-
- Figure 42: Half-year results (£m unless otherwise stated) for the six months ended 31 March 2015
- Figure 43: Revenues*, by business unit (£m unless otherwise stated), ended 31 March 2015
-
- Figure 44: Gross margin, by business, H1 FY 2013-H1 FY 2015
- Figure 45: EBIT LTM*, by business unit, ended 31 March 2015
- Current trading summer 2015
-
- Figure 46: German consumer confidence, 2012-1 July 2015
- Figure 47: Current trading, summer 2015
- More exclusive offers
Kuoni
-
- SWOT analysis
- A major shift in strategy
-
- Figure 48: Kuoni’s share price for the 5-year period ending 3 July 2015
- Shift reflects changing business environment for travel
- Tour-operating business sold to DER Touristik
- What is included in the sale
- Advantages for DER Touristik
- Impact on Kuoni results and cash position
- Future strategic business focus
- Global Travel Distribution (GTD, formerly FIT)
- Global Travel Services (GTS)
- VFS Global
- Strategic initiatives
- FY 2014 results recap
-
- Figure 49: Kuoni’s turnover, by activity, 2013-14
- Figure 50: FIT (now GTD) turnover breakdown, by source markets & destinations (%), 2014
-
- Figure 51: Group Travel turnover breakdown, by source markets & destinations (%), 2014
- Figure 52: Destination Management Specialists’ turnover breakdown, by source markets & destinations (%), 2014
-
- Figure 53: VFS global turnover breakdown, by source markets & destinations (%), 2014
- Outlook
DER Touristik
-
- SWOT analysis
- DER Touristik to expand with Kuoni deal
- Present in all major outbound markets
- Internationalisation and cross-border synergy
- DER Touristik brands
- Dertour
- Meier’s Weltreisen
- ADAC Reisen
- ITS
- Jahn Reisen
- Clevertours.com
- Travelix
- Travel agency network
-
- Figure 54: DER Touristik’s travel agency network, by structure, 2014
- DER.COM combines technology with high-touch service
- Leading destinations
-
- Figure 55: DER Touristik’s top-selling destinations, by type, 2014
- Hotels
-
- Figure 56: DER Touristik’s hotels & investments hotel portfolio, 2014
- Club Calimera
- PrimaSol Hotels
- lti hotels
- Destination agencies
- Outlook
- Post-merger integration of Kuoni assets
- Expected turnaround at Apollo
- Switzerland to become the group’s second market
FTI Touristik
-
- SWOT analysis
- FTI business units
- FTI Touristik
- 5vorFlug
- BigXtra
- DriveFTI
- erf46
- fly.de
- FTI eCom GmbH
- FTI Cruises
- FTI Ticketshop
- FTI Voyages
- Gold by FTI
- LAL
- Meeting Point International
- Meeting Point Rent-A-Car
- reise.de
- travianet
- TVG
- Youtravel
- Sonnenklar
- Outlook
- A successful summer season
- Winter season 2015/16
- Shuttle to El Gouna on the Red Sea
- Arab Gulf destinations added
- Long haul
alltours
-
- SWOT analysis
- Greece and long-haul destinations achieved double-digit growth in FY 2014
- alltours hotels
-
- Figure 57: alltours’ hotel portfolio, 2014
- Outlook
Club Med
-
- SWOT analysis
- A major profitability problem
-
- Figure 58: Club Med results FY 2011-FY 2014
- Demand flat
-
- Figure 59: Club Med performance indicators, 2012-14
- Source markets
-
- Figure 60: Source markets, by region (000 of hotel days sold), 2012-14
- Destination markets
-
- Figure 61: Destination markets, by region (000 of hotel days sold), 2012-14
- Capacity down
- Prices up
- Fosun has acquired Club Med
- Fosun counting on China to drive growth
- Weekend resorts to be developed
- A third Chinese?
-
- Figure 62: Trend in clients’ source markets, 2009-14
- Figure 63: Club Med customers by source country/regional market, FY 2010-FY 2014
- Core business
- Controlled distribution
- Programmes to boost direct distribution
- Indirect sales
- Holiday village operations
-
- Figure 64: Club Med’s village portfolio by structure & region, 31 October 2014
- Figure 65: Occupancy by village grade, 2012-14
- Outlook
-
- Figure 66: Revenue by region for Q1 2015, 1 November 2014-31 January 2015
Hotelplan
-
- SWOT analysis
-
- Figure 67: Hotelplan results, 2013-14
-
- Figure 68: Hotelplan results by strategic business unit for FY 2014, ended 31 October 2014
- Interhome Group
- Top countries
-
- Figure 69: Top countries & regions for Interhome holiday rentals, 2015
- Denner Reisen eliminated from Hotelplan’s brand portfolio
- Outlook
Alpitour
-
- SWOT analysis
- Tour operating
- Alpitour
- Francorosso
- Villages Bravo
- Viaggidea
- Karambola
- Airline
- Incoming
- Hotel management
- Distribution
- Outlook
Oad Reizen
-
- SWOT analysis
- Outlook
Top Ten Outbound Travel Markets
-
- China number one?
- China still not very important for Europe
-
- Figure 70: Top 10 countries for spending on outbound travel, 2013-14
- Mixed prospects for other overseas markets
Leading European Outbound Markets
-
- Germany
- Strong summer holiday sales
- Destination trend
-
- Figure 71: Destinations of German holiday trips*, 2014
-
- Figure 72: Top 10 domestic & foreign destinations for German holiday trips*, 2014
- Current destination trends
- Slump in Canary Islands bookings
- Slowing growth at Hurghada
- Majorca and Antalya up
- Greece still demanded
- Spending, transport and length of stay
-
- Figure 73: Spending, transport & length of stay on long holiday trips*, 2014
- German coach firms expand international routes
- Type of holiday
- Distribution trends
- Low growth in a saturated market
-
- Figure 74: Travel organisation & booking channel for long holiday trips*, 2005 & 2014
- Use of mobile on holiday
-
- Figure 75: Mobile Internet access during holiday trips*, 2014
- High-end travel on the rise
-
- Figure 76: High-end holiday trips*, 2004 & 2014
- UK
- Departure rate
-
- Figure 77: Departure for Britons taking a holiday, 2011-14
- Regional trends
- Destination trends
- Travel groupings
- Issues impacting tourism
- Outbound trend by region
-
- Figure 78: Trips abroad by UK residents, by region, 2004-13
- Figure 79: Nights spent abroad by UK residents, 2004-13
-
- Figure 80: UK residents expenditure (£m) on outbound trips at current prices, 2004-13
- Holiday trips and package tours by destination region
-
- Figure 81: Number of visits abroad by UK residents, by area & purpose of visit, 2010-14*
- Figure 82: Nights spent abroad by UK residents, by area & purpose of visit, 2010-14*
-
- Figure 83: Spending abroad by UK residents, by area & purpose of visit, 2010-14*
- Average expenditure per trip and per day
-
- Figure 84: Average spending abroad by UK residents per visit, 2010-14, & per day, by area & purpose of visit, 2012-14
- Distribution
-
- Figure 85: Holiday booking channel* mix, 2014
- Package holidays making a comeback
- Types of holidays
-
- Figure 86: Top 10 types* of holiday taken in past 12 months, 2014
- Ski tourism stagnating
-
- Figure 87: Trend in outbound ski trips from the UK, 2007/08-2013/14
- Tour operators gaining share
-
- Figure 88: UK outbound ski trips, by segment, 2009/10-2013/14
- France leads the way
-
- Figure 89: Country mix for UK outbound ski trips, 2012/13 versus 2013/14
- Outlook
- Russia
-
- Figure 90: Trend in holiday packages purchased by Russian residents, 2004-13
- Growth has gone into reverse
- Tour-operator bankruptcies
-
- Figure 91: Trend in the number of Russian tour operators, by market served, 2010-14
- Outbound travel to Turkey down sharply in 2015
- All-inclusive and free Wi-Fi
- Outlook
- Inflation is sapping purchasing power
- A quiet New Year holiday
- More people can only afford necessities
- Shorter trips to save money
- But domestic tourism is booming…
- Destination trends
- Crimea could lose tourists
- France
-
- Figure 92: Departure rate (at least one night spent away from home), 2013
- Figure 93: Personal trips by French residents, 14 years of age & older, 2013
- Booking channels
-
- Figure 94: Booking channels used in France, 2013
- Figure 95: Trips, overnights of French outbound travel by main destination, 2013
- Italy
- Sharp drop in tourist trips
-
- Figure 96: Total trips by Italian residents, % change with 2008, 2008-13
- Figure 97: Trend in Italian holiday trips & overnights, by length of stay, 2011-13
- Destinations
- Spain and France the leading country destinations
-
- Figure 98: Destinations of Italian holiday trips, by length of stay, 2013
- Accommodation and transport
What Next?
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- Macro factors favour tourism in Europe
- Stronger economic growth in Europe to boost leisure travel
- Weak Euro good for incoming but could impede extra-regional outbound travel
- Sharing economy to increase in importance
- The China factor
-
- Figure 99: Chinese arrivals in European countries during the first 10 months of 2014
- Chinese investment
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