Table of Contents
Analyst Comment - It’ll be a rocky ride for retailers this Christmas
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- Real incomes are falling
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- Figure 1: Real incomes: earnings growth and inflation, 2014-17
- And retail sales are under pressure as well.
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- Figure 2: Retail sales growth 2014-17
- Inflation rising
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- Figure 3: Retail sales growth, volume and value data 2014-17
- Borrowing to spend
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- Figure 4: Savings ratio, 2014-17
- Consumer confidence weakening
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- Figure 5: How people feel about their finances, 2014-17
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- Figure 6: Proportion of consumers who have added to their savings in the last three months, 2015-17
- Black Friday
- Putting the evidence together
- What we forecast
- What ought to happen and what probably will.
Retail Sales
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- Key points
- Retail sales
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- Figure 7: Retail sales trends, 2016/17
- Figure 8: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, Jul 2015-Aug 2017
- John Lewis
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- Figure 9: John Lewis: Year-on-Year Growth, Aug 2016-Aug 2017
- Rising inflation
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- Figure 10: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2016-17
- Inflation and wages
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- Figure 11: Real wages growth: Wages growth vs inflation, 2014-17
- Confidence
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- Figure 12: Mintel confidence tracker, current financial situation and situation compared to one year earlier, Jan 2014-Aug 17
- Looking forward
Sector Focus – DIY Retailing
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- Major changes
- Consumer spending
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- Figure 13: Spending on DIY products as % all consumer spending, 2000-16
- Retail sales
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- Figure 14: DIY specialists sales as % all retail sales, 2000-16
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- Figure 15: DIY specialists sales growth, 2016-17
- Housing market
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- Figure 16: Proportion of households renting their home, 2001-16
- Figure 17: Housing completions, Feb 2016-Jul 2017
- Leading retailers
- Kingfisher
- Bunnings
- Wickes
- Where next?
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Lush accepts bitcoin as payment
- ASOS launches male make-up
- Marks & Spencer trialling sushi counters in store in partnership with Wasabi
- UK: Oasis launches in-store virtual reality campaign
- UK: Sainsbury’s trials 30 minute click and collect
Headlines for the Month
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- Grocers
- Clothing retailing
- Multi-sector retailing
- Department stores
- DIY retailing
- Electrical retailing
- Homewares retailing
- Home shopping
- Sports and leisure goods retailing
News Analysis – Food and Drink
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- Convenience stores
- UK: McColl’s sales rise in Q3
- UK: Nisa in talks with Co-op after Sainsbury’s delays takeover deal
- Grocers
- UK: Aldi launches cut-price gluten free range
- UK: Asda
- …cuts almost 300 jobs in cost-saving drive
- …returns to sales growth after three years of decline
- UK: Morrisons focuses on British food
- UK: Sainsbury’s
- …announces instore Argos click-and-collect service
- …teams up with NFL
- …trials 30 minute click and collect
- UK: Tesco
- …rolls out vegetables for children
- …to sell mini avocados in bid to fight food waste
News Analysis – Clothing and Footwear
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- Clothing retailing
- Arcadia Group pays £35m to BHS creditors
- Basler UK enters administration
- Jack Wills hires new chief marketing officer
- Lipsy to close website
- M&Co to open 75 new stores
- New Look
- …chief executive to step down
- …teams up with London Fashion Week
- …debt draws US investors
- Officine Générale to open debut UK store
- Reserved opens debut store in London
- TJX reports favourable Q2
- Topshop and Topman creative directors replaced
- Urban Revivo hires Topshop’s former buyer for UK launch
- Zara opens UK baby wear store
- Jimmy Choo experiences strong growth in first half of the year
- Jones Bootmaker has closed nine stores
News Analysis – Multi-sector
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- Halfords sees retail sales rise
- M&S
- …to distribute non-food surplus to charity scheme
- …to offload Hong Kong and Macau franchises
- …trials children’s footwear advice service
- Wilko to cut 3,900 jobs
- Department stores
- Debenhams group trading director steps down
- House of Fraser
- …HQ cuts online jobs
- …opens new sustainable store
- John Lewis
- …to allow customers to sleep overnight
- …to launch tradesman service
News Analysis – Household Goods
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- B&Q sees a fall in sales in Q2
- Bunnings sales rise whilst profits fall in debut UK year
- Wickes reports positive 2016
- Electrical retailing
- Dixons Carphone revenue rises
- Furniture retailing
- DFS struggles in second half of 2017
- Homewares retailing
- Cath Kidston collaborates with Pinterest
- Chief executive of Dunelm steps down
- Laura Ashley sales and profits tumble
- Sonder Living expands into the UK
News Analysis – Home Shopping
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- Avenue 32 confirms closure
- BHS.com sees sales jump in Q2
- Boden reported an increase in sales and profit
- Boohoo appoints non-executive director
- Feelunique sales grow in annual results
- Gear4music posts positive half year result
- Matchesfashion.com
- …to be sold for £600 million
- …sold to Apax Partners
- Missguided launching standalone menswear website
- Mr Porter opens ‘Kingsman: The Golden Circle’ shop
- Notonthehighstreet.com chief executive leaves
- The Hut Group
- …acquires Australian beauty retailer
- …adds to beauty offering with Glossybox acquisition
- …to acquire Espa
- Very Exclusive hires former Avenue 32 buying director
- Health & beauty retailing
- The Fragrance Shop profit increases
- The Perfume Shop launches mobile store
- Book and stationery retailing
- Card Factory sales rise
- Typo and Smiggle increase footprint in the UK
- WH Smith expects full year results to be in line with expectations
- Sports and leisure goods retailing
- Sports Direct
- …increase stake in Debenhams
- …issues confident trading update
- Toys and games retailing
- Toys R Us profits surge whilst sales fall
- GAME
- …and Maplin to launch partnership stores
- …sales up due to growth in Spanish market
News Analysis – Economy
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- British Retail Consortium
- …footfall for July decreases
- …non-food deflation reaches four year low
- …retail sales hold up in August
- ONS data shows a weak July
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