Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Cyclical nature of the category has led to a decline in sales
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nail color and care, at current prices, 2012-22
- Women are less engaged than a year ago
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- Figure 2: Nail routine involvement, October 2017
- Concerns about damage could be steering women away from gel polish
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- Figure 3: Attitudes toward nail damage and ingredient safety, by age, October 2017
- The opportunities
- Back to basics, with benefits
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- Figure 4: Nail product usage, October 2017
- Pop-up shops could be a way to boost product usage
- Hispanic women remain engaged in nail trends
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- Figure 5: Select nail product usage, by Hispanic origin, October 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Nail color and care market in decline
- Largest segment experiences largest loss
- Salon services are in decline, involvement among affluent women stagnant
- Growth in aging and Hispanic populations
Market Size and Forecast
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- Historic and projected sales performance of nail color and care
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nail color and care, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of nail color and care, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Nail polish sees largest sales drop
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- Figure 8: Share of nail color and care sales, by segment, at current prices, 2017
- Artificial nails get a boost
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales of nail color and care, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Market Perspective
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- Salon services also struggling to bolster engagement
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- Figure 10: Nail services done at a salon, November 2014, October 2015, and October 2017
- Middle-income women more engaged in some salon services
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- Figure 11: Select nail services done at a salon, by household income, October 2017
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- Figure 12: Select nail routine involvement, by household income, October 2017
Market Factors
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- Growth in aging population
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- Figure 13: Female population by age, 2012-22
- Rising consumer confidence
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- Figure 14: Consumer Sentiment Index, Oct 2010-Oct 2017
- Hispanic population projects highest growth
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- Figure 15: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2012-22
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- MULO sales align with decline in consumer engagement
- Concerns regarding nail damage see sales success
- Nail products associated with gel manicures struggling
- Opportunities to think outside of the bottle may change consumer skepticism
Company and Brand Sales of Nail Color and Care
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- MULO sales indicative of total market
- Kiss Products post growth with gains in accessories and artificial nails
- Sales of nail color and care by company
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- Figure 16: MULO sales of nail color and care, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
What’s Working?
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- Innovations in artificial nails see success
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- Figure 17: MULO sales of artificial nails and accessories, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Polish with treatment claims growing in sales
What’s Struggling?
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- Gel nail polish loses shine
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- Figure 18: Nail services done at-home, November 2014, October 2015, and October 2017
- Treatments associated with gel losing share to polish with benefits
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- Figure 19: MULO sales of nail treatments, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
What’s Next?
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- Free-from ingredient claims provide opportunity to make polish “safe”
- Cruelty-free claims shift from face to nails
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- Figure 20: Select nail polish claims, by highest percentage growth, Jan 2013-Dec 2017*
- Pop-up shops provide a unique, exclusive experience for younger generations
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- Figure 21: Break Records, Not Nails | #OPIWorldRecord, 2017
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- At home, traditional nail services beat out trendy
- Traditional nail products stay on top
- Mass merchandisers most popular shopping destination
- Women spending less time at the salon, less money on products
- Appropriate color top reason for choosing polish
- Concerns over polishing and nail health are growing
Nail Services
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- Single-color manicures and pedicures remain most popular services
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- Figure 22: Nail services done, salon vs at-home, October 2017
- Younger women more likely to do nail services at home
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- Figure 23: Nail services done, at-home, by age, October 2017
- Hispanic women over index for at-home nail services
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- Figure 24: Nail services done, at-home, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
Nail Product Usage
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- Nail staples have higher usage than specialty products
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- Figure 25: Nail product usage, October 2017
- Staples see high usage, women aged 55+ heavy users
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- Figure 26: Nail product usage, by age, October 2017
- Engagement higher among Black and Hispanic women
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- Figure 27: Nail product usage, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
Retailers Shopped
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- Mass merchandisers and drug stores encourage impulse buys
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- Figure 28: Retailers shopped, October 2017
- Majority of purchases occur in-store
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- Figure 29: In-store vs. online purchase, October 2017
- Online shoppers visit more retailers compared to in-store
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- Figure 30: Select retailers shopped, by in-store vs. online purchase, October 2017
- Women tend to follow the purchase patterns of their respective age groups
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- Figure 31: Retailers shopped, by age, October 2017
- Hispanics seek out variety of retailers to find products
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- Figure 32: Retailers shopped, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
Involvement in Nail Routines
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- Women spending less time at the salon, less money on products
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- Figure 33: Nail routine involvement, October 2017
- 25-44-year-olds spending more time researching and experimenting
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- Figure 34: Nail routine involvement – More or less time spent, by age, October 2017
- Hispanic women spend more time on nail trends
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- Figure 35: Nail routine involvement – More or less time spent, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
Reasons for Choosing Nail Polish
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- Appropriate color top reason for choosing polish
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- Figure 36: Reasons for choosing nail polish, by rank, October 2017
- Mature women play it safe with color, younger groups follow trends
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- Figure 37: Reasons for choosing nail polish, any rank (net), by age, October 2017
- Hispanic women are trend-driven, willing to try new looks
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- Figure 38: Reasons for choosing nail polish, any rank (net), by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
Attitudes toward Nail Products
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- Ingredient safety a growing concern, some skepticism regarding efficacy
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- Figure 39: Attitudes towards nail products, October 2015 and October 2017
- 18-34-year-olds interested but skeptical about natural
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- Figure 40: Attitudes towards nail products, by age, October 2017
- Black women more concerned with natural than other groups
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- Figure 41: Attitudes towards nail products, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 42: Total US sales and forecast of nail color and care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 43: Total US retail sales of nail color and care, by segment, at current prices, 2012-17
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 44: MULO sales of nail polish, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 45: MULO sales of nail accessories and implements, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 46: MULO sales of nail polish removers, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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