Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Casual dining chain visitation is flat
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- Figure 1: Changes in casual dining chain visitation, among segment visitors, November 2017
- A sense of sameness is unappealing to certain consumers
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- Figure 2: Casual dining chain attitudes, by FSR segment visitors, November 2017
- The opportunities
- Get midscale customers to “trade up”
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- Figure 3: Ideal casual dining restaurant chain occasions, by FSR segment visitors, November 2017
- Takeout services appeal to parents
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- Figure 4: FSR behaviors, by parental status and age, November 2017
- Casual dining chain enthusiasts respond to value
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- Figure 5: Casual dining chain attitudes, by changes in casual dining chain visitation, November 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- FSRs maintain moderate growth
- Market saturation makes standing out even harder
- Largest FSRs experience declines
Market Size and Forecast
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- FSRs experience moderate growth
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- Figure 6: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 7: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Over half of the largest FSR chains experienced falling sales or no growth
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- Figure 8: Share of top 100 restaurant chain sales, 2016
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- Figure 9: Change in sales of top casual and family/midscale chains from one year prior
Market Perspective
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- LSR growth outpacing FSRs
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- Figure 10: Total revenues for restaurants and other eating places, by segment share, at current prices, 2015-22
- Supermarkets become dining destinations
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- Figure 11: Grocer concept interest, August 2017
- Co-op Cuisine benefits LSRs over FSRs
Market Factors
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- Overexpansion squeezes the market
- On-premise alcohol consumption falls
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- Figure 12: Total on-premise alcohol consumption, litres per capita, 2010-20
- No room for the middle?
- Restaurants face labor shortage
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- FSRs target at-home occasions
- Casual dining chains return to the basics
- FSRs open all day and rely on social media
What’s Working?
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- Restaurants bet on off-site sales
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- Figure 13: Red Robin email, December 29, 2017
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- Figure 14: Chili’s email, December 31st, 2017
- Dinertainment restaurants rise above the rest
- Darden maintains growth while competitors falter
2017: The Year of the Casual Dining Reset
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- Mainstream casual dining struggles; companies hit reset
- Applebee’s
- Chili’s
- TGI Friday’s
- Buffalo Wild Wings
- Golden Corral
- Rebranding and redesign underway at Tony Roma’s, Tilted Kilt, and Beef O’ Brady’s
What’s Next?
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- Where’s the beef?
- Booze to you
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- Figure 15: TGI Friday’s alcohol delivery
- Mighty mocktails
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- Figure 16: Mocktail examples at fine dining restaurants
- FSRs open up for all-day dining
- Smarter restaurant choice from social media
- Focus on social media-worthy alcoholic drinks
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- Figure 17: TGI Friday’s Email, December 15, 2017
- Fine dining menu trends
- Fine dining Asian cuisine experiences strong growth
- Cakes get savory
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- Figure 18: Savory cake/cheesecake examples at fine dining restaurants
- Fine dining sauces can expand to other segments and retail
- Chefs substitute veggies for meat
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Midscale/casual dining chains experience stagnant net visitation
- Ambivalence is hurting the casual dining chain market
- A value-centric approach may save a struggling brand
- Coupons shouldn’t be underestimated
Changes in FSR Visitation
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- Casual dining chains are the second-most visited restaurant type
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- Figure 19: Restaurant visitation, November 2017
- Most midscale diners also visit casual dining chains
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- Figure 20: FSR segment cross visitation, November 2017
- Independents experience highest net growth
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- Figure 21: Changes in restaurant visitation, among segment visitors, November 2017
- FSR visitation varies by demographics
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- Figure 22: Changes in restaurant visitation, among segment visitors, by select demos, November 2017
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- Figure 23: Changes in restaurant visitation, among segment visitors, by socioeconomic status, November 2017
Reasons for Visiting Casual Dining Chains Less
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- Price remains the strongest prohibitor
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- Figure 24: Reasons for visiting casual dining chains less, coded qualitative responses, top 10, November 2017
Ideal Casual Dining Restaurant Chain Occasions
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- Ideal occasions revolve around friends/family
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- Figure 25: Ideal casual dining restaurant chain occasions, November 2017
- Target midscale diners
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- Figure 26: Ideal casual dining restaurant chain occasions, by FSR segment visitors, November 2017
- Possible opportunity for sports-based promotions
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- Figure 27: Ideal casual dining restaurant chain occasions, by changes in casual dining chain visitation, November 2017
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- Figure 28: Applebee’s email, January 8, 2018
- Upper status consumers are an elusive group
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- Figure 29: Ideal casual dining restaurant chain occasions, by socioeconomic status, November 2017
Casual Dining Chain Attitudes
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- Casual dining chains excel at family friendly, value-oriented meals
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- Figure 30: Casual dining chain attitudes, November 2017
- Black consumers represent a key consumer group
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- Figure 31: Casual dining chain attitudes, by race/ethnicity, November 2017
- A formulaic dining experience fails to connect with independent/fine dining customers
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- Figure 32: Casual dining chain attitudes, by FSR segment visitors, November 2017
- Figure 33: CHAID analysis – Casual dining chain attitudes, November 2017
- Value may be driving increased visitation
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- Figure 34: Casual dining chain attitudes, by changes in casual dining chain visitation, November 2017
Casual Dining Chain Visitation Motivators
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- What’s the deal with deals?
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- Figure 35: Casual dining chain visitation motivators, November 2017
- Seasonal/shareable items may attract a younger clientele
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- Figure 36: Casual dining chain visitation motivators, by generation, November 2017
- Everyday value may appeal to midscale diners
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- Figure 37: Casual dining chain visitation motivators, by FSR segment visitors, November 2017
FSR Behaviors
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- Don’t disregard coupons
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- Figure 38: Chili’s email, December 18, 2017
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- Figure 39: FSR behaviors, November 2017
- Delivery usage highest among young consumers
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- Figure 40: FSR behaviors, by age, November 2017
- Pick-up programs appeal to parents
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- Figure 41: FSR behaviors, by parental status and age, November 2017
- Fine dining customers may be most open to restaurant tech
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- Figure 42: FSR behaviors, by FSR segment visitors, November 2017
FSR Segment Associations
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- Consistency is a double-edged sword for casual dining chains
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- Figure 43: FSR associations, November 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Mintel Menu Insights
- ePerformance
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 44: Total US revenues and forecast for full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- CHAID Methodology
- FSR segment visitors’ demographic profiles
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- Figure 45: FSR segment visitors demographic profiles
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