Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- America today
- America in 2018
- The people
- The economy
- The consumer
- Financial situations are healthy and stable
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- Figure 1: Current financial situation, 2013-17
- Dining takes priority over debt
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- Figure 2: Where extra money is spent, February 2018
- Consumers expect prices to stay the same or increase
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- Figure 3: Consumer expectations of affordability, February 2018
- Americans may be concerned with both child care and elder care
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- Figure 4: American pride, February 2018
- Too small to trust
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- Figure 5: American attitudes – Trust, February 2018
- What it means
America Today – What Will Impact 2018
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- Trump keeps us on our toes
- Americans speaking out
- Tech continues to transform markets
America Today – The People
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- What you need to know
- Growth in South and West region drives population forward
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- Figure 6: US population by region, 2012-17
- Millennials continue to be a key target market
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- Figure 7: US population by generation, 2018
- Young Americans have a more racially diverse experience
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- Figure 8: Distribution of population, by age and race/Hispanic origin, 2018
- Birth rate fails to pick up
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- Figure 9: Number of births (in thousands) and general fertility rate, 2006-16
- As birth rate slows, median age climbs
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- Figure 10: Median age of the population, 1940-2050
- Single households most often headed by women
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- Figure 11: Living arrangements of children under age 18, 2017
America Today – The Economy
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- What you need to know
- Economic expansion continues through 2017
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- Figure 12: GDP change from previous period and consumption expenditures, Q1 2009-Q4 2017
- Consumer confidence continues upward
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- Figure 13: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-January 2018
- Unemployment continues to be low, low, low
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- Figure 14: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-January 2018
- Gas prices inch up
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- Figure 15: US gasoline and diesel retail prices, January 2007-February 2018
- 2018 rings in some unexpected turbulence
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- Figure 16: Dow Jones Industrial Average – Closing values by day, Jan 2017-March 2018
- Moderate DPI growth continues
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- Figure 17: Disposable personal income change from previous period, January 2007-December 2017
- Household income on the rise
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- Figure 18: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2006-16
- Women continue to narrow the wage gap
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- Figure 19: Median earnings of full-time, year-round workers, by gender and female-to-male earnings ratio, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 1960-2016
- In a healthy economy, the savings rate dips
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- Figure 20: Personal Saving Rate, Percent, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, January 1980-January 2018
America Today – The Market
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- What you need to know
- US consumer expenditures grow at improved pace
- Housing
- Healthcare
- Transportation
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- Figure 21: Total US market value sales by category ($billions), 2017
- Figure 22: Change in US value sales by category, 2016-17
- Outlook for 2022
- Winners in the next five years
- Facing challenges in the next five years
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- Figure 23: Total US best- and worst-case forecast value sales at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 24: Forecast growth rate of fastest and slowest growing categories, 2017-22
Category Review – In-home Food
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- Only minimal growth for in-home food
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- Figure 25: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of in-home food, at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- Refrigerated case offers antidote to center-store stagnation
- Prepared meals regain momentum
- Small indulgences continue to gain ground
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Engagement in food shopping is high, but so is time pressure
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- Figure 26: Category engagement – In-home food, February 2018
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Dining Out
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- Restaurants have to balance tradition and innovation without a clear roadmap
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- Figure 27: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of dining out, at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- Shared resources are driving innovation
- Beverage-driven concepts get competitive
- Social media blends aspiration and reality
- Health gets more functional as the lines between health and indulgence blur
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Dining out brings a focus to all of the senses
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- Figure 28: Category engagement – Dining out, February 2018
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Alcoholic Drinks (Out-of-Home)
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- On-premise sales grow but changes in drinking preferences are disrupting the market
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- Figure 29: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of alcoholic drinks (out-of-home), at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- South of the border tastes shape the on-premise market
- Come for the groceries, stay for the beer
- Social media shapes alcohol trends
- Mocktails stand in for the real thing
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Consumers cite low engagement with alcoholic beverages
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- Figure 30: Category engagement – Alcoholic drinks, February 2018
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- Figure 31: Alcoholic beverage consumption, at home vs away from home, January 2018
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Alcoholic Drinks (In-home)
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- Sales of alcoholic drinks for in-home consumption will see steady gains through 2022
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- Figure 32: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of alcoholic drinks (in-home), at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- Differentiation to avoid dilution
- Authentic sense of place, near or far
- Cocktails will keep things exciting, customizable
- Lighten up
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Perceived lack of alcohol knowledge means consumers may be leaving decisions up to the experts
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- Figure 33: Category engagement – Alcoholic drinks, February 2018
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Non-alcoholic Drinks
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- Total market grows marginally; performance varies significantly among categories
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- Figure 34: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of non-alcoholic drinks, at current prices, 2012-22
- Non-alcoholic beverage winners
- Struggling non-alcoholic beverage categories
- What to watch
- A gut feeling
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- Figure 35: Share of new non-alcoholic* beverage product launches with “probiotic” or “prebiotic” claims, 2013-17
- Unwind and relax
- Think about it
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Opportunity to build excitement within the non-alcoholic beverage category
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- Figure 36: Category engagement – Non-alcoholic drinks, February 2018
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Beauty and Personal Care
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- BPC category continues to post steady growth
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- Figure 37: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of beauty and personal care, at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- Consumers want more than a natural look
- Convenience continues to be leading purchase factor
- Customization is an expectation
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Consumer engagement in BPC is dependent on age and gender
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- Figure 38: Category engagement – Beauty and personal care, February 2018
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – OTC and Pharmaceuticals
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- OTC and pharmaceutical market continues with stable growth
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- Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecast value of OTC and pharmaceuticals, at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- Unique health needs necessitate customization
- Value brands thriving across most OTC markets
- Taking a cue from food and personal care: free-from claims
- The evolving wellness experience
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- VMS adherence is consistent; OTCs taken as-needed
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- Figure 40: Frequency of VMS, prescription and OTC mediation use, October 2017
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Household Care
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- Household care market continues to post slow yet steady growth
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- Figure 41: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of household care, at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- Despite clogged plumbing concerns, flushable wipes experience gains
- Improved formulas in laundry pods and long-lasting scent innovations gain traction
- All-purpose cleaners cannibalize specialized cleaners; natural brands outperform category leaders
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Overall engagement is low, but age reveals differences
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- Figure 42: Category engagement – Household care, February 2018
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Clothing and Accessories
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- Growth anticipated, but at a slower pace
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- Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of clothing and accessories, at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- Blending of physical and digital
- Retail automation
- Technology overhaul
- Personal and personable
- The Amazon effect
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Majority of consumers remained highly engaged in the category
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- Figure 44: Category engagement – Clothing and accessories, February 2018
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Technology and Communications
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- Sales growth roughly on pace with inflation
- Best case legitimate possibility
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- Figure 45: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of technology and communications, at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- Smart home
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- Figure 46: Sales of high-growth new technology products, at wholesale current prices, 2016-18
- What to worry about: mobile services and pay TV
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Consumer engagement similar to other categories
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- Figure 47: Category engagement – Technology and communications, February 2018
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Vacations and Tourism
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- Continued growth expected for travel market
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- Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of vacations and tourism, at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- Hotels will continue to compete with home shares/home rentals
- Theme parks can attract family vacationers
- Tech can edge out competition
- Loyalty programs expand ways to earn and use points
- Popularity of destinations will hinge on cost and weather
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Americans eager to research and read about travel
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- Figure 49: Category engagement – Vacations and tourism, February 2018
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Leisure and Entertainment
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- A strong economy encourages discretionary spend
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- Figure 50: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of leisure and entertainment, at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- Integration of tech and live experiences
- Emphasizing the experience
- Millennial and family preferences drive interest
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Consumers want to know what they can do in their free time
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- Figure 51: Category engagement – Leisure and entertainment, February 2018
- Key consumer findings in leisure and entertainment
Category Review – Home and Garden
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- Home and garden market poised for future gains
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- Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of home and garden, at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- Capacity and flexibility boost appliance appeal
- Beverage appliances struggle to regain ground; security concerns challenge smart appliances
- Products gain intelligence using “eyes” and “ears”
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Shopping for home and outdoors has barriers; driving down engagement
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- Figure 53: Category engagement – Home and garden, February 2018
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Transportation
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- Overall transportation expenses should ramp up
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- Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of transportation, at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- Tesla Model 3 production levels
- Self-driving vehicles breaking new barriers in progress toward commercialization
- Uber prepares for a 2019 IPO
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Automotive segment doesn’t draw significant consumer engagement
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- Figure 55: Category engagement – Automotive, February 2018
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Personal Finance
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- Industry market growth predicted to outpace economy at large
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- Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecast value of personal finance, at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- Rapid growth in mobile payments
- Drastic fluctuations remain the norm in cryptocurrency markets
- Low-cost technological alternatives continue to threaten traditional investment services
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Consumer engagement
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- Figure 57: Most important features of financial institution, March 2017
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Housing
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- Housing market predicted to continue its upward trajectory
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- Figure 58: Best- and worst-case forecast value of housing, at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- Mortgage rates continue to rise, potentially affecting willingness to purchase a home
- Home ownership is ultimately a financial priority for most consumers
- New and alternative credit checks could become more popular
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Home ownership rate climbs, but not to past levels
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- Figure 59: Home ownership rate for the United States (not seasonally adjusted), January 2007-October 2017
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Health and Vision
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- Low levels of uninsured, climbing chronic illnesses influence spending
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- Figure 60: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of health and vision, at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- Online vision services balance in-person needs
- Self-care helps adults maintain stability, avoid costs
- Opioid crisis spurs public health emergency and a focus on pain management
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Seniors depend on doctors for care
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- Figure 61: Get regular medical checkups, by age, October 2016
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Miscellaneous
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- What you need to know
- What we think
- Miscellaneous spending growth in nearly all segments
- Education services
- Legal services
- Pet products and services
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- Figure 62: Best- and worst-case forecast value of miscellaneous spending, at current prices, 2012-22
- What to watch
- Tobacco use experienced a slight uptick, but may fall due to increased regulation
- Americans place greater value on their pet’s health
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- Figure 63: ASPCA pet insurance customer acquisition email, March 2017
- Figure 64: Nationwide pet insurance customer acquisition direct mail, July 2017
- College enrollment may be on the rebound, education spending likely beneficiary
- Traditional crafting holds steady
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Key consumer findings
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Outlook for this year is positive
- Restaurants can benefit as discretionary income increases
- Not much expectation for affordable goods next year
- Adults see the country as powerful, but flawed
- Americans may think others have negative perceptions of the country
- Made in America is still a powerful concept
- Americans willing to talk it out
Financial Outlook
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- Americans feel financially secure
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- Figure 65: Current financial situation, 2013-18
- Significant differences in financial positivity by age and gender
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- Figure 66: Current financial situation, by age, by gender, November 2017
- An expectation for stability or improvement
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- Figure 67: Future financial outlook, November 2017
- Young adults have a rosier outlook on the future
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- Figure 68: Future financial outlook, by age, November 2017
- Black adults show financial optimism despite challenges
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- Figure 69: Current financial state and future financial outlook, by race, November 2017
How Extra Money Is Spent
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- Dining out remains a top treat for consumers
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- Figure 70: Where extra money is spent, February 2018
- Travel spending driven by upper status Americans
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- Figure 71: Where extra money is spent – Select items, by socioeconomic status, February 2018
- Saving versus spending
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- Figure 72: Where extra money is spent – Saving and spending, by gender, February 2018
- Older adults show willingness to spend on travel
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- Figure 73: Where extra money is spent – Saving and spending, by gender, February 2018
Consumer Expectations for 2018
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- Modest expectations for more affordable goods
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- Figure 74: Consumer expectations of affordability, February 2018
- Affluent Americans have lowest expectations of affordability
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- Figure 75: Consumer expectations of affordability – Select items, by status level, February 2018
- Older adults are the least optimistic about the cost of goods
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- Figure 76: Consumer expectations of affordability – Select items, by status level, February 2018
- Black adults look forward to affordability
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- Figure 77: Consumer expectations of affordability – Select items, by race, February 2018
American Pride
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- Americans are proud, but see the country facing challenges
- Adults may need support with child care and elder care
- Americans show awareness of possible shortcomings
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- Figure 78: American pride, February 2018
- Relationship between affluence and positivity
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- Figure 79: American pride – Select items, by status level, February 2018
- Older Americans show more favorability
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- Figure 80: American pride – Parenting and aging, by age, February 2018
- Gap in sentiment between men and women
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- Figure 81: American pride – Global perceptions, by gender, February 2018
Perceptions of Americans
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- Americans show concern about global reputation
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- Figure 82: Perceptions of Americans, February 2018
- Men see the good side of Americans
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- Figure 83: Perceptions of Americans – Select items, by gender, February 2018
- Others’ perceptions illuminate feared shortcomings
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- Figure 84: Perceptions of Americans – Select items, by race, February 2018
American Attitudes
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- “American made” carries weight with consumers
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- Figure 85: American attitudes – Supporting American business, February 2018
- Confronting issues head on
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- Figure 86: Heineken | Worlds Apart | #OpenYourWorld, April 2017
- Figure 87: American attitudes – Controversial issues, February 2018
- Belief in American strength
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- Figure 88: American attitudes – Resilience, February 2018
- Older, White, and male adults show the most faith
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- Figure 89: Official Ram Trucks Super Bowl Commercial | Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. | Built to Serve, February 2018
- Figure 90: American attitudes – Resilience, demographic profile, February 2018
- Skepticism plagues data security efforts
- In their own words
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- Figure 91: American attitudes – Trust, February 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Fan chart forecasts
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Correspondence analysis methodology
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 92: Total US retail sales and forecast of total market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 93: Total US retail sales and forecast of total market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 94: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-home food, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 95: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-home food, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 96: Total US revenues and forecast for foodservice, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 97: Total US revenues and forecast for foodservice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 98: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-alcoholic drinks, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 99: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-alcoholic drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 100: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic drinks (out-of-home), at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 101: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic drinks (out-of-home), at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 102: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic drinks (in-home), at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 103: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic drinks (in-home), at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 104: Total US retail sales and forecast of beauty and personal care, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 105: Total US retail sales and forecast of beauty and personal care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 106: Total US retail sales and forecast of OTC and pharmaceuticals, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 107: Total US retail sales and forecast of OTC and pharmaceuticals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 108: Total US retail sales and forecast of clothing and accessories, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 109: Total US retail sales and forecast of clothing and accessories, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 110: Total US retail sales and forecast of household care, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 111: Total US retail sales and forecast of household care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 112: Total US retail sales and forecast of technology and communications, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 113: Total US retail sales and forecast of technology and communications, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 114: Total US retail sales and forecast of leisure and entertainment, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 115: Total US retail sales and forecast of leisure and entertainment, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 116: Total US retail sales and forecast of home and garden, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 117: Total US retail sales and forecast of home and garden, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 118: Total US retail sales and forecast of transportation, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 119: Total US retail sales and forecast of transportation, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 120: Total US retail sales and forecast of travel and tourism, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 121: Total US retail sales and forecast of travel and tourism, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 122: Total US retail sales and forecast of personal finance, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 123: Total US retail sales and forecast of personal finance, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 124: Total US retail sales and forecast of housing, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 125: Total US retail sales and forecast of housing, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 126: Total US retail sales and forecast of health and vision, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 127: Total US retail sales and forecast of health and vision, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 128: Total US retail sales and forecast of miscellaneous expenditure, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 129: Total US retail sales and forecast of miscellaneous expenditure, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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