Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Juice market takes another sales blow
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Sugar, calories, and weight drive down juice consumption
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- Figure 2: Reasons for drinking less juice or juice drinks, January 2019
- Juice garners mixed consumer perceptions; loses out on hydration
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- Figure 3: Qualities associated with different types of drinks, January 2019
- The opportunities
- Generation Z and Millennials can re-energize the market
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- Figure 4: Consumption frequency compared to a year ago, by generation, January 2019
- Get functional
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- Figure 5: Beverage features and functionality interest, January 2019
- Get clean
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- Figure 6: Factors considered important when purchasing, by generation, January 2019
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Category struggles continue
- Bottled water leads the competitive set
- Better-for-you hybrids will become the norm
Market Size and Forecast
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- Juice market falls to $19.2 billion and future decline forecast
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- Juice drinks comprise half of market share
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- Figure 9: Share of total sales in juice and juice drinks market, by segment, 2018
- 100% juice and smoothies watering down performance
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of juice and juice drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
Market Perspective
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- Innovation in crowded market chipping away at juice
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-alcoholic drinks, by category, at current prices, 2012-22
- Harnessing the power of water
- Plant-based performance and nutrition drinks chip away at smoothies
Market Factors
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- Sugar remains public enemy #1
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- Figure 12: reasons for reduced juice and juice drink consumption
- High obesity rates drive consumer demand for lower-sugar, low-calorie drinks
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- Figure 13: Trends in obesity prevalence among adults aged 20 and over (age adjusted), 1999-2000 through 2015-16
- FDA labeling and sugar taxes raise awareness and cost of sugary drinks
- Older Americans growing in population share and focus on health
- Foodservice operators both a catalyst and competition for RTD juice
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Leader boards’ weakening sales indicate shifting landscape
- Juice drinks go BFY, hybrid for small gains as 100% juice and smoothies struggle
- On the horizon: tart tastes, super-food veggies, aloe vera, and maybe CBD
Company and Brand Sales of Juices
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- Major suppliers slipping
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- Figure 14: MULO sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019, weeks ending January 28, 2018 and January 27, 2019
What’s Working?
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- Flexibility, innovation nudge juice drinks to be so much more than juice
- Classic lemonades and cool updates find success
- “Blended” juice drinks with tea, carbonation, and coconut juice
- Pomegranate juice remains wonderful in 100% juice segment
- Private-label grows share, making gains in juice drinks and smoothies
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- Figure 15: MULO private label sales, by segment, 2017-18
- Cold-pressed juice space getting competitive
- Kombucha teas edge into mainstream, driven by Pepsi’s Kevita and private label
What’s Struggling?
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- 100% juice, orange juices, struggle to reverse the slide
- Smoothies marked by competition and high sugar content
- Shelf-stable juice drinks struggle to grow
What’s Next?
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- Tart cherry, berries, and melon in juices
- Beets and broccoli and kale, oh my
- Botanicals and tree waters are the new coconut water
- Adultification of juices could refresh the category
- Juice drinks function shifts gears to relaxation
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Penetration is high overall
- Juicers seek nutritious treat
- Sugar concerns trigger reduction
- Brand falls short of flavor, price in purchase factors
- High interest in tart flavors and natural sweeteners
- Functionality can create or extend consumption drivers, occasions
Juice Purchase
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- Nearly nine in 10 have purchased juice in past three months
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- Figure 16: Beverage purchases, January 2019
- Gen Z and Millennials comprise key consumer groups
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- Figure 17: Any juice or juice drinks purchased in past three months, by generation, January 2019
- Younger consumers drive juice drink sales
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- Figure 18: Juices and juice purchased, top five beverages purchased, by generation, January 2019
- Families drive sales in the juice market
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- Figure 19: Any juice or juice drinks purchased in past three months (net), by parental status, January 2019
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- Figure 20: Juice and juice drink purchases, by parental status, January 2019
- Juice drinks, punch fit the bill for parents of kids under 11
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- Figure 21: Beverage purchases, by age of child (discrete choices), January 2019
Increased Consumption of Juice and Juiced Drinks
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- About a fifth report consuming more juice than a year ago
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- Figure 22: Consumption frequency compared to a year ago, January 2019
- Young adults, Gen Zs, drinking more juice
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- Figure 23: Consumption frequency compared to a year ago, by generation, January 2019
- Parents and Hispanics more likely to drinking more
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- Figure 24: Consumption frequency compared to a year ago, by parental status and Hispanic origin, January 2019
Reasons for Consumption Changes
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- Healthy indulgence is a hallmark for category innovation
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- Figure 25: Reasons for no change or increased consumption of juice, January 2018
- Men cite a wider range of motives for juice consumption
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- Figure 26: Reasons for no change or increased consumption of juice, by gender, January 2018
- Gen Zs drink more in quest for new flavors, formats, and occasions
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- Figure 27: Reasons for no change or increased consumption of juice, by generation, January 2018
- Parents eager for more flavors
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- Figure 28: Reasons for no change or increased consumption of juice, by parental status, January 2018
Reasons for Reduced Juice Consumption
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- Sugary reputation drives down juice consumption
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- Figure 29: Reasons for drinking less juice or juice drinks, January 2019
- Women are especially concerned with juice’s sugar and calories
- …and men are more price sensitive
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- Figure 30: Reasons related to taste, diet, and sugar, for drinking less juice or juice drinks, by gender, January 2019
- Aging enhances sugar concerns
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- Figure 31: Reasons for drinking less juice or juice drinks, by generation, January 2019
Motivating Factors When Selecting Juice/Juice Drinks
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- Clean, low-sugar formulations fall short of flavor and price
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- Figure 32: Factors considered important when purchasing juice and juice drinks, January 2019
- Flavor and sugar top the wish list
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- Figure 33: TURF analysis – Important juice factors, January 2019
- “Free from” identity key to reaching women
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- Figure 34: Factors considered important when purchasing, by gender, January 2019
- Older consumers seek mix of hard claims, while flavor is first for Gen Z
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- Figure 35: Factors considered important when purchasing, by generation, January 2019
- Hispanic consumers seek organic, cold-pressed juices
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- Figure 36: Factors considered important when purchasing, by Hispanic origin, January 2019
Beverage Quality Associations
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- 100% juice and smoothies widely seen as tasty, nutritious, and natural
- Juice drinks are tasty but also high-sugar and less natural
- Water serves as a model for all drinks
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- Figure 37: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Competitive context, January 2019
Flavor and Ingredient Interest
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- Citrus and berry flavors plus natural sweeteners
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- Figure 38: Beverage flavor and ingredient interest, January 2019
- Gen Z eager for more flavors and natural sweeteners
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- Figure 39: Beverage flavor and ingredient interest, by generation, January 2019
- Millennial consumers eager for more varied, subtle, and sophisticated flavor notes
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- Figure 40: Beverage flavor and ingredient interest, by generation, January 2019
- Younger consumers eager for juices with superfoods and CBD
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- Figure 41: Beverage flavor and ingredient interest, by generation, January 2019
- Drinks with superfoods and natural sweeteners appeal to parents
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- Figure 42: Beverage flavor and ingredient interest, by parental status, January 2019
Features and Functionality Interest
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- Opportunity is strong for juices offering functional benefits
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- Figure 43: Beverage features and functionality interest, January 2019
- Men eager for juices to boost energy, women to enhance beauty
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- Figure 44: Beverage features and functionality interest, by gender, January 2019
- Gen Z looks to juices for energy and relaxation
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- Figure 45: Beverage features and functionality interest, by generation, January 2019
- Millennials seek digestion and immunity
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- Figure 46: Beverage features and functionality related to beauty and digestion, by generation, January 2019
- Parents are eager for multifunctional juices
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- Figure 47: Beverage features and functionality interest, by parental status, January 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Mintel Market Sizes
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Methodology – Correspondence analysis
- Methodology – TURF Analysis
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 49: Total US retail sales of juice and juice drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
- Figure 50: Total US retail sales of 100% juice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-18
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales of juice drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-18
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- Figure 52: Total US retail sales of smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-18
- Figure 53: MULO sales of 100% juice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Figure 54: MULO sales of juice drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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- Figure 55: MULO sales of smoothies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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