Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Growth remains steady despite intensified uncertainty
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- Figure 1: UK house building market value, £ billion, 2015-19
- Brexit threatens the sector’s near-term growth
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- Figure 2: UK house building market forecast, 2019-24
- Companies and brands
- Entry into the industry inhibited by uncertainty
- Help to Buy underpins significant proportion of the market
- Firms are adapting to escape limits imposed by affordability
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Innovation presents an opportunity to escape skill shortages
- The facts
- The implications
- Legislative changes are shifting strategic focus
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Market growth sustained despite intensified uncertainty
- Possibility of a no-deal Brexit poses serious challenges
- High prices and undersupply are shaping market development
Market Size
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- Market holds on to growth as Brexit uncertainty intensifies
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- Figure 3: UK house building market value, 2015-19
- Post-recession bounce in completions begins to stall
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- Figure 4: UK new permanent dwellings completed annually, 1968-2018
Market Segmentation
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- Private house building leads market growth
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- Figure 5: UK house building market value, private and public segments, seasonally adjusted, 2015-19
- Completions to fall as Brexit uncertainty hits private builders
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- Figure 6: UK new permanent dwellings completed annually, by tenure 1968-2018
- Surge in houses continues as the popularity of flats falls
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- Figure 7: Permanent dwellings completed in England, by house and flat, all tenures, % of completions, 2008/9 - 2018/19
- Regional divergence of the South East and North West continues
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- Figure 8: New housing output in England by region, £ million Q1 2006 – Q1 2019
- Construction output by nation
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- Figure 9: New housing output and annual change by nation, 2013-18
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- Figure 10: UK house building market value by nation, private and public segments, 2017-18
Market Forecast
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- Brexit will temporarily hurt the market as the economy adjusts
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- Figure 11: UK house building market value forecast, 2019-24
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- Figure 12: UK house building market value forecast, by segment, 2019-24
- Effects of a no-deal Brexit on imports and exports
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- Figure 13: EU Most Favoured Nation tariffs on selected product groups and their share in EU imports
- Effect of a no-deal Brexit on house prices
Impact of the Economy
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- Economic tensions hamper growth
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- Figure 14: Percentage change in GDP, chained volume measure, seasonally adjusted, 2012 – H1 2019
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- Figure 15: ICAEW Business Confidence MonitorTM, Q3 2013 – Q3 2019
- Figure 16: UK business investment, £ million, Q1 2015 – Q2 2019
Market Trends
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- House price growth and sales volume slows as Brexit approaches
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- Figure 17: Annual change in UK average house prices, all types of property, September 2015 – June 2019
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- Figure 18: UK residential home sales volumes, all types of property, October 2015 – April 2019
- Home ownership slump driven by affordability issues
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- Figure 19: Percentage of families (singles or couples) owning their own home in the UK, by age group, May 2000-17
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- Figure 20: Ratio of median house price to median gross household earnings, England and Wales, 2002-2018
- Persistent skill shortages will be amplified by Brexit
- Sustainable housing in the UK
Market Drivers
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- Help to Buy is a key driver of supply and demand of new housing
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- Figure 21: Number of Help to Buy completions in England, 2013-18
- Uncertainty and legislative changes hit buy-to-let activity
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- Figure 22: Residential loans issued for buy-to-let mortgages as percentage of gross loan advances, Q1 2014 – Q1 2019
- UK mortgage rates remain low
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- Figure 23: UK monthly interest rates on mortgages to households, all UK monetary financial institutions excl. Central Bank, January 2013 - August 2019
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- Figure 24: Mintel financial well-being index, January 2015 – May 2019
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Economic uncertainty has reduced the rate of expansion
- Help to Buy scheme remains a major source of revenue
- Rising land and house prices in London and the South East incentivise activity elsewhere
Industry Structure
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- Changes in industry structure
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- Figure 25: Analysis of changes in the development of building projects sector, outlets and businesses, 2014-2018
- Figure 26: Analysis of changes in the construction of residential and non-residential buildings sector, outlets and businesses, 2014-2018
- Structure by employment
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- Figure 27: Analysis of the employment structure of the development of building projects sector, 2017 and 2018
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- Figure 28: Analysis of the employment structure of the construction of residential and non-residential buildings sector, 2017 and 2018
- Structure by turnover
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- Figure 29: Financial analysis of the development of building projects sector, 2017 and 2018
- Figure 30: Financial analysis of the construction of residential and non-residential buildings sector, 2017 and 2018
Company Profiles
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- Barratt Developments
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 31: Financial analysis of Barratt Developments, 2015-19
- Bellway
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 32: Financial analysis of Bellway, 2014-18
- Berkeley Group
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 33: Financial analysis of Berkeley Group, 2014-18
- Galliford Try
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 34: Financial analysis of Galliford Try, 2014-18
- Persimmon
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 35: Financial analysis of Persimmon, 2014-18
- Taylor Wimpey
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 36: Financial analysis of Taylor Wimpey, 2014-18
Further Sources and Contacts
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- Trade associations
- Trade magazines
- Trade events
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Methodology
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