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Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts - UK - January 2012

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Forecast
Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail sales of crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by value, 2006-16
Market factors
UK obesity levels steadily rising
Consumers look to enjoy indulgent treats more often
Low consumer confidence of benefit to snack-at-home categories…
…With price starting to prevail over loyalty
Rising raw material prices a threat to keeping salty snacks affordable
Population changes create both opportunities and threats
Figure 2: Projected trends in the UK population, by age group, 2011-16
Companies, brands and innovation
Pepsico remains the dominant market force
Potato crisps and supermarkets drive innovation in the market
Figure 3: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by top companies, 2007-11*
Healthy claims fall as NPD looks to keep its options open
Figure 4: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by claims, 2010 and 2011*
Adspend looks set to fall in 2011
The consumer
Falling numbers of snackers in the market
Standard potato crisps remain the most popular type…
Figure 5: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, November 2011
…With snacking at home dominating
Price grows in importance as a choice factor when buying crisps
Figure 6: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks or nuts, November 2011
Consumers show keen interest in flavour and resealable packaging
Figure 7: Attitudes towards crisps and salty snacks, November 2011
Health considerations come to the fore for consumption of nuts
Figure 8: Attitudes towards nuts, November 2011
Overpricing a major barrier to popcorn usage
Figure 9: Attitudes towards popcorn, November 2011
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
How can the market arrest falling numbers of users?
How can over-55s be encouraged to try new types of crisps and salty snacks?
How can the sharing bags market boost their market share further?
How can manufacturers draw more men into the salty snacks market?
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
Extend my Brand
A Simple Balance for Health
INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Fewer Brits claim to be snacking in 2011
Figure 10: Snacking between meals, 2009-11
Rising UK obesity levels put pressure on snack manufacturers
Figure 11: Body mass index segments, 2007-11
Increasing numbers of consumers are looking for indulgent treats
Figure 12: Agreement with health-related lifestyle statements, 2007-11
Consumers becoming more price-conscious and less brand-loyal
Figure 13: Agreement with cost-related lifestyle statements, 2007-11
Trend for staying at home benefiting affordable indulgences
BROADER MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Consumers to remain conservative with limited value market growth
Figure 14: Consumer confidence index, monthly, January 2007-December 2011
The UK’s changing demographic profile presents challenges and opportunities
Figure 15: Projected trends in the UK population, by age group, 2011-16
An ageing population a threat to the crisps market, but a potential boon for nuts
Conversely, growing numbers of 25-34-year-olds may have the opposite effect
Changing social patterns are also likely to lead to fragmented growth
Figure 16: Projected trends in the UK population, by socio-economic group, 2011-16
C2s may hold the key for the crisps and nuts markets…
…With ABs also likely to play a central role
Declining numbers of D users a threat to crisps
Rising raw material prices put pressure on manufacturer margins
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Crisps, salty snacks and nuts face a wide variety of competition
Figure 17: Retail sales in selected markets competing with crisps, salty snacks and nuts, 2006-11
Healthy snacking being encouraged, but consumers still look for treats
Figure 18: Trends in attitudes towards selected healthy lifestyles, December 2008-October 2011
Confectionery benefits from strong on-the-go positioning
Growth of bag formats remains a threat to crisps and salty snacks
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Crisps NPD outstrips the market
Figure 19: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by sub-category, 2007-11*
Supermarkets up the ante in NPD
Figure 20: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by top companies, 2011*
Figure 21: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by label, 2007-11*
Healthy claims fall in 2011
Figure 22: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by claims, 2010 and 2011*
NPD returns to the tried and tested
Figure 23: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by flavour, 2011*
 KEY THEMES
Supermarkets heat up competition in premium crisps segment
Crisp brands highlight their use of local produce
Smaller bags but big flavour
Popcorn NPD booms in 2011
Nuts tackle expensive image with economy launches
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Market size for crisps and salty snacks
Figure 24: UK retail sales of crisps and salty snacks, 2006-11*
Market size for nuts
Figure 25: UK retail sales of nuts, 2006-11
Forecast
Forecast for crisps and salty snacks
Figure 26: UK retail sales of crisps and salty snacks, 2006-16*
Figure 27: Forecast of UK retail sales of crisps and salty snacks*, by value, 2006-16
Forecast for nuts
Figure 28: UK retail sales of nuts, 2006-16
Figure 29: Forecast of UK retail sales of nuts, by value, 2006-16
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Crisps remain the largest individual type of snack
Figure 30: UK retail value sales of crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by type, 2009-11
Nuts segment posts growth despite brand woes
Snacks represent just under half of the market
Child-friendly snacks remain a potentially lucrative market
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Walkers continues to dominate the crisps market
Figure 31: Leading brands’ value shares in crisps and salty snacks, 2009-11
Mixed fortunes for PepsiCo’s brands
New sub-brands add competition
Doritos driving the success of tortilla chips
Interest in retro brands remains strong
Pringles struggles as takeover talks appear to impact on sales
UB has success in growing value share of key brands
Seabrook consolidates its position in the market
Premium sales for premium crisps
New entrants help to drive popcorn sales
KP the only major brand to post growth in 2011
Figure 32: Leading brands’ value shares in nuts, 2009-11
Peperami and Mattessons drive sales of meat snacks
Figure 33: Leading brands’ value shares in meat snacks, 2009-11
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Diamond Foods
Procter & Gamble
PepsiCo
Seabrook
Tyrrells
United Biscuits (UB)
The Dormen Food Company
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 34: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the crisps and salty snacks sector, November 2011
Correspondence analysis
Brand attitudes
Figure 35: Attitudes, by crisp and salty snacks brand, November 2011
Brand personality
Figure 36: Crisps and salty snacks brand personality – macro image, November 2011
Figure 37: Crisps and salty snacks brand personality – micro image, November 2011
Brand experience
Figure 38: Crisps and salty snacks brand usage, November 2011
Figure 39: Satisfaction with various crisps and salty snacks brands, November 2011
Figure 40: Consideration of crisps and salty snacks brands, November 2011
Figure 41: Consumer perceptions of current crisps and salty snacks brand performance, November 2011
Figure 42: Crisps and salty snacks brand recommendation – net promoter score, November 2011
Brand index
Figure 43: Crisps and salty snacks brand index, November 2011
Figure 44: Crisps and salty snacks brand index vs. recommendation, November 2011
Target group analysis
Figure 45: Target groups, November 2011
Figure 46: Crisps and salty snacks brand usage, by target groups, November 2011
Group One – Conformists
Group Two – Simply the Best
Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
Group Five – Individualists
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Adspend looks set to decline in 2011
Figure 47: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on crisps, salty snacks and nuts, 2007-11*
Walkers ramps up its adspend and tightens its grip on the market
Figure 48: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by top-spending companies in 2011, 2008-11
Figure 49: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by top ten brands, 2011*
TV remains the dominant advertising medium despite a slight fall
Figure 50: Main monitored media advertising spend on crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by media type, 2008-11*
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
Multiple grocers strengthen their dominance in the market
Figure 51: Retail distribution of crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by outlet type, 2009-11
Exclusivity still plays a small role in the market
Crisps and salty snacks remain a part of the pub experience
CONSUMER – TRENDS IN USAGE OF CRISPS, SALTY SNACKS AND NUTS
Key points
Crisps and salty snacks suffer decline in user numbers
Figure 52: Usage of potato crisps, tortilla chips and corn snacks, 2007-11
Figure 53: Types of potato crisps, tortilla and corn snacks used most often, 2007-11
Nuts also see numbers of users fall
Figure 54: Usage of nuts and dried fruit, 2009-11
Figure 55: Types of nuts and dried fruits used most often, 2009-11
Nuts usage pattern almost the complete opposite of crisps
CONSUMER – USAGE OF CRISPS, SALTY SNACKS AND NUTS BY TYPE
Key points
Standard crisps remains the most popular snack type
Figure 56: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, November 2011
Figure 57: Most likely gender and age group to eat different types of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, November 2011
Standard crisps remain dominant in consumers’ preferences
Premium crisps continue moving into the mainstream
Usage of tortilla chips grows rapidly
Healthier crisps show signs of growth
Popcorn is the star performer in 2011
Roasted nuts are the second most widely eaten salty snack
Figure 58: Consumption of nuts in the last six months, by type, by age, November 2011
More consumers expanding their crisps and salty snacks repertoires
Figure 59: Repertoire of usage of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, November 2011
CONSUMER – USAGE OF CRISPS, SALTY SNACKS AND NUTS BY LOCATION AND OCCASION
Key points
Home use dominates consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts
Figure 60: Locations for eating crisps, salty snacks and nuts, November 2011
Figure 61: Percentage point change in what consumers spend extra money on, November 2009 against October 2011
Evening snacking dominates use of crisps, salty snacks and nuts
Figure 62: Occasions for eating crisps, salty snacks and nuts, November 2011
CONSUMER – CHOICE FACTORS
Key points
Price and flavour dominate as the main choice factors
Figure 63: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts, November 2011
Consumers increasingly considering price but not special offers
Consumers move towards their favourites and away from experimenting
Trust important for three in five consumers
Have sharing bags peaked?
Over-55s look for health and quality ingredients
Summary of choice factors by types of crisp and salty snacks
Figure 64: Choice factors, by top three types of snack, November 2011
CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS CRISPS AND SALTY SNACKS
Key points
Resealable packaging and flavour dominate consumer attitudes
Figure 65: Attitudes towards crisps and salty snacks, November 2011
Resealable packaging may help refresh sharing bags
Flavour more important than health for the majority of consumers…
…But healthy crisps may be on the rise
Brands still lead the way on taste
CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS NUTS AND POPCORN
Key points
Health considerations come to the fore for consumption of nuts
Figure 66: Attitudes towards nuts, November 2011
Roasted nuts benefits from a healthy image...
…Although consumers are limiting their usage of nuts on health grounds
Strong interest in newness, fair trade nuts and sharing bags
Price represents a notable challenge for nuts
Perceived overpricing a major barrier to popcorn usage
Figure 67: Attitudes towards popcorn, November 2011
CONSUMER – TARGET GROUPS
Key points
 FIVE TARGET GROUPS
Figure 68: Target groups for crisps, salty snacks and nuts, November 2011
Budgeters (23%)
Health-conscious (20%)
Enthusiasts (19%)
Indulgents (12%)
Undriven (26%)
APPENDIX – INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Figure 69: Reasons for snacking 2009-11
Figure 70: Trends in current financial situation compared to a year ago, July-October 2011
Figure 71: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2007-11
Figure 72: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011
Figure 73: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011 (continued)
Figure 74: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011 (continued)
APPENDIX – COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Figure 75: Trends in attitudes towards selected healthy lifestyles, December 2008-October 2011
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 76: Best and worst case forecasts for crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by value, 2011-16
Figure 77: Best and worst case forecasts for crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by value, 2011-16
Figure 78: Best and worst case forecasts for nuts, by value, 2011-16
APPENDIX – BRAND RESEARCH
Figure 79: Brand usage, November 2011
Figure 80: Brand commitment, November 2011
Figure 81: Brand momentum, November 2011
Figure 82: Brand diversity, November 2011
Figure 83: Brand satisfaction, November 2011
Figure 84: Brand recommendation, November 2011
Figure 85: Brand attitude, November 2011
Figure 86: Brand image – macro image, November 2011
Figure 87: Brand image – micro image, November 2011
Figure 88: Profile of target groups by demographics, November 2011
Figure 89: Psychographic segmentation by target groups, November 2011
Figure 90: Brand usage by target groups, November 2011
Figure 91: Brand index, November 2011
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – TRENDS IN USAGE OF CRISPS, SALTY SNACKS AND NUTS
Figure 92: Reasons for snacking, 2009-11
Figure 93: Usage of potato crisps, tortilla and corn snacks, by demographics, 2011
Figure 94: Types of potato crisps, tortilla and corn snacks used most often, 2007-11
Figure 95: Usage of nuts and dried fruit, by demographics, 2011
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – USAGE OF CRISPS, SALTY SNACKS AND NUTS BY TYPE
Figure 96: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 97: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, by demographics, November 2011 (continued)
Figure 98: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, by demographics, November 2011 (continued)
Figure 99: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months by type, by repertoire, November 2011
Figure 100: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, by demographics, November 2011
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – USAGE OF CRISPS, SALTY SNACKS AND NUTS BY LOCATION AND OCCASION
Figure 101: Locations for eating crisps, nuts and salty snacks: by demographics, November 2011
Figure 102: Occasions for eating crisps, nuts and salty snacks; by demographics, November 2011
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – CHOICE FACTORS
Figure 103: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by demographics, November 2011
Figure 104: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by demographics, November 2011 (continued)
Figure 105: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by demographics, November 2011 (continued)
Figure 106: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, November 2011
Figure 107: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, November 2011 (continued)
Figure 108: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, November 2011 (continued)
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS CRISPS AND SALTY SNACKS
Figure 109: Attitudes towards crisps, salty snacks and nuts, November 2011
Figure 110: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer the taste of branded crisps/salty snacks to own-label ones’ and ‘I only buy premium crisps / salty snacks when they are on offer’, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 111: Agreement with the statements ‘I am prepared to pay more for branded crisps/salty snacks’ and ‘I prefer crisps made from UK-sourced potatoes’, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 112: Agreement with the statements ‘Healthy crisps are tastier than they used to be’ and ‘I buy more sharing bags than I used to’, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 113: Agreement with the statements ‘Flavour is more important to me than calorie content’ and ‘I always try to buy healthy crisps/salty snacks’, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 114: Agreement with the statements “I would like to see resealable packaging for large sharing packs of crisps/salty snacks” and “I like to buy retro crisps / salty snacks”, by demographics, November 2011
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS NUTS AND POPCORN
Figure 115: Attitudes towards nuts and popcorn, November 2011
Figure 116: Agreement with the statements ‘Roasted nuts are a good source of protein and vitamins’ and ‘I limit the amount of roasted nuts I eat because they are unhealthy’, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 117: Agreement with the statements ‘Roasted nuts are healthier than crisps/other salty snacks’ and ‘I would prefer to buy nuts in a large sharing bag’, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 118: Agreement with the statements ‘I like trying new brands and flavours of nuts’ and ‘Nuts are cheap when compared to other snacks’, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 119: Agreement with the statements ‘I only buy nuts when they are on special offer’ and ‘I would buy more nuts if the salt content was lower’, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 120: Agreement with the statements ‘I would be more likely to buy healthier nut options’ and ‘I would like to buy more fair trade nuts’, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 121: Agreement with the statements ‘Popcorn is healthier than other snacks’ and ‘Popcorn is overpriced’, by demographics, November 2011
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – TARGET GROUPS
Figure 122: Target groups, by demographics, November 2011
Figure 123: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type; by target groups, November 2011
Figure 124: Locations for eating crisps, nuts and salty snacks; by target groups, November 2011
Figure 125: Occasions for eating crisps, nuts and salty snacks; by target groups, November 2011
Figure 126: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by target groups, November 2011
Figure 127: Attitudes towards eating crisps and salty snacks, by target groups, November 2011
Figure 128: Attitudes towards eating nuts and popcorn, by target groups, November 2011
Figure 129: Healthy lifestyles, by target groups, November 2011

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