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UK Retail Briefing - January 2012

ANALYST COMMENT
 CHRISTMAS 2011
Very much as expected
Late surge
Not as good as it looks
Fashion
Food
Other sectors
Online strong
And 2012
Tesco – Time for a fundamental rethink in marketing
Marketing the problem
Time for a rethink
HEADLINES FOR THE MONTH
Grocers
Food specialists
Clothing
Footwear
Multi-sector retailing
Miscellaneous specialists
Department stores
Mixed goods
DIY
Electricals
Music and video
Furniture
Home shopping
Health and beauty
Sports and leisure goods
Jewellers
Toys and games
Economy
RETAIL SALES – BACKGROUND AND OUTLOOK
Key points
Retail sales trends
Figure 1: Retail sales trends, 2011
The BRC data for December
Figure 2: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, 2010-11
John Lewis
Figure 3: John Lewis: Year-on-year growth, 2010-12
Inflation and wages
Figure 4: RPI vs Average weekly earnings growth, 2008-12
Inflation remains uncomfortably high
Figure 5: Annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for selected product groups, 2011
Looking forward
SECTOR FOCUS – CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR RETAILERS
 MINTEL’S TRACKER SURVEY
Figure 6: Mintel Tracker Survey: Agreement with statements on what extra money is spent on, Dec 2009, Dec 2010 and Dec 2011
Figure 7: Mintel Tracker Survey: Agreement with statements on what extra money is spent on, Dec 2009-Dec 2011
 SECTOR RELATIVES
Figure 8: Clothing & footwear specialists’ retail sales as % of all retail sales (incl. fuel), 2006-11
Figure 9: Clothing & footwear specialists’ retail sales as percentage of consumer spending on clothing & footwear, 2006-11
 RETAIL SALES DATA
Figure 10: Clothing & footwear specialists’ retail sales, 2006-11
 INFLATION
Figure 11: Average monthly cotton prices per lb, Jan 2010-Dec 2011
Figure 12: Consumer prices index for clothing & footwear and all items, Jan 2010-Dec 2011
Figure 13: Consumer prices index for clothing and footwear sub-categories, Jan-Dec 2011
 CONSUMER SPENDING
Figure 14: Consumer spending on clothing & footwear, 2006-11
 LEADING CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR SPECIALISTS
Figure 15: Leading clothing specialists, 2010/11
Figure 16: Leading footwear specialists, 2010/11
NEWS ANALYSIS
 GROCERS
Asda outperforms rivals over Christmas
Booths sales up as shoppers entertain over Christmas
Morrisons
…M Savers to hit shelves in January
…plans 2012 expansion
…reports Christmas sales rise as it eyes Best Buy sites
Sainsbury's sees 'record-breaking' Christmas
Tesco
…enters F&F partnership in Saudi Arabia
…extends Home Efficiency offering by selling boilers
…reports "disappointing" Christmas with like-for-likes falling 2.3%
The Co-operative Group
…adds 28 stores after acquiring David Sands
…posts Christmas sales uplift
Waitrose
…enjoys festive sales rise
…reports 'very strong' Christmas trading
…to introduce contactless payments
 OFF-LICENCES
Majestic Wine posts Christmas sales rise
 FOOD SPECIALISTS
Greggs reports boosted Christmas sales
Thorntons
…issues profit warning
…suffers poor Christmas performance
 CLOTHING RETAILING
American Apparel opens more concessions in Selfridges
Aurora Fashions reports 13% like-for-like rise this winter
Blue Inc
…enjoys positive Christmas
…preparing to buy 21 D2 stores
Bravissimo performance driven by Pepperberry
Burberry reports rising sales due to outerwear and leather goods
D2 fashion chain collapses into administration
Howies bought back by management
Jacques Vert
…and Irisa to share back office
…received bid from Sun European
Jaeger full year profits fall
La Senza
…acquired by Alshaya UK
…restructuring plans
Moss Bros sees rise in like-for-likes
Mulberry appoints new chief executive
New Look reports strong Christmas trading
Next sales up due to strong Directory performance
Paul Smith sees profits for the full year rise
Peacocks
…considering selling off Bonmarche
…struggles as RBS pulls out of rescue deal
SuperGroup
…Christmas sales rise
…profits fall despite LFL lift
Ted Baker delivers "excellent" Christmas performance
The Kooples opens first UK outlet store
Triumph considers bid for La Senza stores
Victoria's Secret owner in line to buy La Senza
White Stuff reports 20% year-on-year sales rise
 FOOTWEAR RETAILING
Barratts Priceless
…sees more than 1,600 jobs go
…stores acquired by Ziff
…to close 18 stores before Christmas 2011
Schuh sees strong year
 MULTI-SECTOR RETAILING
Marks & Spencer
…reports stronger food sales while general merchandise suffers
…increases opening hours and delivery service for Christmas
Laura Ashley sees like-for-likes rise
 MISCELLANEOUS SPECIALISTS
Halfords sees like-for-likes drop of 4.8%
Mamas and Papas enters red
Albemarle & Bond to open 25 stores this year
Mothercare
…sales rise driven by promotions
…sees private equity firms circle for bids
Past Times
…closes 47 stores
…enters administration
…officially in administration
Pets at Home posts "robust" half-year trading
QD reports solid Christmas and plans expansion
 DEPARTMENT STORES
Debenhams has strong Christmas
Fortnum & Mason reports record sales
Harvey Nichols launches new concept store in Liverpool One
House of Fraser posts "pleasing" sales growth
John Lewis
…launches trend-led women's label JL Weekend
…reports successful sales week
…sales boosted by late delivery offer
…sales up 4.7% as it prepares for Christmas rush
…up on Christmas sales from last year
…sees strong sales week
Selfridges launches last-minute Christmas shopping services
 MIXED GOODS RETAILERS
Argos
…launches pop-up shops in London train stations
…like-for-likes fall 8.8%
The Original Factory Shop reports growth
Poundland's Dealz store to have £1.20 pricing structure
 DIY RETAILING
B&Q
…invests £12m in product ranges
…launches 'most aggressive' price campaign yet
Focus DIY's customers, shoppers and unsecured creditors receive nothing
Topps Tiles sales down 4.2% in first quarter
Wickes
…further hit by low consumer confidence
…owner buys remaining Toolstation stake
Robert Dyas reports strong Christmas run-up
 ELECTRICALS RETAILING
Best Buy big-boxes to close on 15 January
Dixons' reports falling like-for-likes over Christmas
Maplin reports strong December
Phones 4U reports sales rise in final quarter
 MUSIC AND VIDEO GOODS RETAILING
HMV
…considers sale of live music arm on bad sales
…sales fall over Christmas
Netflix to launch in UK and Ireland today
Oakley Capital plans bid for HMV's live music arm
 CARPET RETAILING
Carpetright reports first half loss
United Carpets pre-tax profits halve in first half
 FURNITURE RETAILING
CSL reports Christmas sales rise
DFS earnings fall but invests in growth
Dunelm growth continues in strong H1
Dwell to open first Welsh store at St David's
Ikea UK & Ireland gets first British boss
 HOME SHOPPING
N Brown reports like-for-likes rise 2%
Asos to open data to external web developers
Brand Alley reports sales up 61%
Ocado
…enjoys late surge in Christmas sales
…warns on profits
Shop Direct posts Christmas sales rise
 HEALTH AND BEAUTY RETAILING
Boots sees sales rise more than 3% in December
Feelunique's Christmas sales boosted by high-end brands
Lush Christmas "exceeds expectations"
Superdrug delivers "solid" festive growth
The Fragrance Shop sees strong online sales over Christmas
 BOOK AND STATIONERY RETAILING
Clinton Cards reports rising Christmas like-for-likes
Foyles
…reports Christmas sales up 20%
…reports continued profitability
Hallmark plans out international expansion
Ryman profits driven by ecommerce
 SPORTS AND LEISURE GOODS RETAILING
Blacks Leisure
…faces post-Christmas administration
…in administration
…moves closer to pre-pack administration
Edinburgh Woollen Mill a surprise bidder for Blacks
Go Outdoors and Mountain Warehouse join race for Blacks
JD Sports
…considers bid for Blacks
…formally acquires Blacks
…in "advanced discussions" to buy Blacks
…posts festive like-for-likes rise
JJB improves performance over Christmas
Sports Direct
…pulls out of Blacks bid
…sales up
Yeomans owner Granite buys Gelert
Pro Bike wins backing
 JEWELLERS
Folli Follie enjoys 64% increase in sales over Christmas
Signet UK sales rise 1.8% over Christmas
 GARDEN CENTRES
The Garden Centre Group has "outstanding" Christmas
 TOYS AND GAMES RETAILING
Game
…like-for-likes fall as margins hit
…set to appoint Deloitte for turnaround
Games Workshop pre-tax profits rise
Hawkin's Bazaar owner headed for administration
The Entertainer outperforms toy market by 22.1%
 ECONOMY
BRC:
…'Christmas on a knife egde' as footfall drops
…stronger Christmas "reflects one-off factors"
Cost of retail crime rises 31%
CPI
…at 4.2% in December
…inflation falls in November
Friday before Christmas to be the busiest shopping day of the year
January shopper numbers fall
Kantar reveals Sainsbury's market share highest since March 2003
New Year grocery discounting begins
Online shopping spree leads to delivery chaos
ONS: Retail sales value up 4.6% in November
Portas
…response will not be brought forward
…reveals 28 recommendations for high street revival
…to focus on planning and parking reforms to revive high street
Scottish retail sales fall worst since 1999
Shop price inflation hits 16-month low in December
Shopper numbers up in week before Christmas
Supermarkets now represent 36% of retail property pipeline
West End takings fall despite traffic-free weekend
Bluewater tops UK shopping centre ranking

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