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Fruit Juice, Juice Drinks and Smoothies - UK - November 2012

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Market size and forecast for total UK value sales of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, 2007-17
The future
Market factors
Discretionary spending remains under consumer scrutiny
A growing need to engage the older population
Health benefits offer positive notions to build on
Companies, brands and innovation
Own-label represents half of the market
Figure 2: Brand shares in the UK fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market, by value, 2011/12*
NPD continues to drive the market
Brands dominate ad investment
The consumer
Penetration stands at almost nine in ten
Figure 3: Types of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies drunk, September 2012
A sizeable minority rate own-label
Figure 4: Attitudes towards purchasing fruit juice, juice drinks or smoothies, September 2012
Providing refreshment to consumers
Figure 5: Attitudes towards fruit juice, September 2012
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
What has been the impact on consumers of rising prices in the market?
How can brands combat the threat from own-label?
How can the market tap into consumer interest in health?
What steps can the market take to encourage experimentation?
TREND APPLICATION
The Power of One
Factory Fear
2015 Trend: Old Gold
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Inflation and commodity costs affect the sector
Figure 6: Trends in global commodity prices for oranges, January 2008-September 2012
The premium price could act as a deterrent to purchasing
Figure 7: Price comparison of standalone soft drinks, October 2012
Health remains an issue
Figure 8: Trends in attitudes towards health, 2008-12
Demographic changes
Dominance of families bodes well for the market
Figure 9: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2007-17
Growth of 16-34s should aid future growth
One-person households pose a challenge
Growth in ABC1s bodes well for premiumisation
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Own-label extends its share
Figure 10: New product launches in the fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market, own-label vs branded, 2008-12
Orange and apple continue to be most popular flavours in NPD
Figure 11: NPD in fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by top flavours, 2008-12
Figure 12: NPD in fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by top flavour components, 2008-12
Seasonal products offer opportunities for innovation
Convenient pack sizes target the lunchtime occasion
Helping kids get their 5-a-day
Highlighting health credentials
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
The market sees value growth, volumes decline
Figure 13: Volume and value sales and forecast for the total UK fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market, 2007-17
Segmentation
Figure 14: UK value sales of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by sector, 2007-17
Figure 15: UK volume sales of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by sector, 2007-17
The future
Figure 16: Market size and forecast for UK volume sales of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, 2007-17
Figure 17: Market size and forecast for total UK value sales of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, 2007-17
Figure 18: Market size and forecast for UK value sales of fruit juice, 2007-17
Figure 19: Market size and forecast for UK value sales of juice drinks, 2007-17
Figure 20: Market size and forecast for UK value sales of smoothies, 2007-17
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Fruit juice
Take-home market sees volume sales decline
Figure 21: Take-home volume and value sales of fruit juice, 2007-11
Figure 22: Take-home volume and value sales of fruit juice, by segment, 2009-11
On-premise value sales grow on the back of rising prices
Figure 23: On-premise volume and value sales of fruit juice, 2007-11
Fruit juice drinks
Take-home volumes suffer a year-on-year decline
Figure 24: Take-home volume and value sales of fruit juice drinks, 2007-11
Figure 25: Take-home volume and value sales of fruit juice drinks, by segment, 2009-11
On-premise sees value and volumes rise
Figure 26: On-premise volume and value sales of fruit juice drinks, 2007-11
Smoothies
Take-home sales dominate
Figure 27: Take-home volume and value sales of smoothies, 2007-11
On-premise sees sales boost since 2010
Figure 28: On-premise volume and value sales of fruit smoothies, 2007-11
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Fruit juice
Own-label and Tropicana dominate the market
Figure 29: Leading brands’ retail value and volume shares in fruit juice, 2010/11 and 2011/12
Fruit juice drinks
GSK’s Ribena represents the largest share
Figure 30: Leading brands’ retail value and volume shares in fruit juice drinks, 2010/11 and 2011/12
Smoothies
Innocent accounts for £8 in every £10 spent
Figure 31: Leading brands’ retail value and volume shares in smoothies, 2010/11 and 2011/12
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Britvic
Coca-Cola Enterprises
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
PepsiCo
Del Monte
Don Simon
Princes Foods
Own-label
Smoothie bars
Boost Juice Bars
Crussh
Revive Juice Bars
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 32: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies sector, September 2012
Correspondence analysis
Brand attitudes
Figure 33: Attitudes, by fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies sector, September 2012
Brand personality
Figure 34: Fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies sector brand personality – macro image, September 2012
Figure 35: Fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies sector brand personality – micro image, September 2012
Brand experience
Figure 36: Fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies sector brand usage, September 2012
Figure 37: Satisfaction with various fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies sector brands, September 2012
Figure 38: Consideration of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies sector brands, September 2012
Figure 39: Consumer perceptions of current fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies sector brand performance, September 2012
Figure 40: Fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies sector brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, September 2012
Brand index
Figure 41: Fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies sector brand index, September 2012
Figure 42: Fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies sector brand index vs. recommendation, September 2012
Target group analysis
Figure 43: Target groups, September 2012
Figure 44: Fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies sector brand usage, by target groups, September 2012
Group One – Conformists
Group Two – Simply the Best
Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
Group Five – Individualists
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Advertising spend peaks in 2011
Figure 45: Main media advertising expenditure on fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, 2009-12
Innocent leads juice and smoothie advertising
Figure 46: Total media advertising expenditure on fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by advertiser, 2009-12*
Chilled fruit juice dominates expenditure
TV accounts for every £3 in £4 spent
Figure 47: Advertising spend, by media type, 2009-12
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
On-premise sales prove profitable for fruit juice
Figure 48: Value sales of fruit juice, by major channels, 2009-11
Fruit juice market benefits from affordable positioning
Figure 49: Value sales of juice drinks, by major channels, 2009-11
The take-home channel dominates smoothie sales
Figure 50: Value sales for smoothies, by major channels, 2009-11
CONSUMER – USAGE
Key points
Penetration stands at almost nine in ten…
Figure 51: Types of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies drunk, September 2012
…core users are skewed towards ABC1s and larger households
Figure 52: Types of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies drunk, by key demographics, September 2012
Sizeable minority consume fruit juice/juice drinks/smoothies weekly
Figure 53: Consumption of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by frequency, September 2012
More than half have drunk all three juice types
Figure 54: Crossover in usage of fresh/chilled fruit juice, long-life fruit juice and fruit juice drinks, September 2012
CONSUMER – OCCASIONS
Key points
Majority have bought fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies
Figure 55: Purchasing habits of fruit juices and smoothies, by occasion, September 2012
Juice drinks are the most popular choice
Figure 56: urchasing habits of fruit juices and smoothies, by age and socio-economic group, September 2012
Potential to increase men’s purchases of fruit juice
Figure 57: Purchasing habits of fruit juices and smoothies, by occasion, by gender, September 2012
Figure 58: Purchasing habits of fruit juices and smoothies, by occasion, by gender, September 2012 (continued)
Younger consumers snack on fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies
Figure 59: Purchasing of fruit juices and smoothies ‘as a snack’ – 16-24-year-olds vs all, September 2012
Larger pack sizes cater to bigger families’ usage on a number of occasions
CONSUMER – BEHAVIOUR
Key points
A sizeable minority rate own-label highly
Figure 60: Attitudes towards purchasing fruit juice, juice drinks or smoothies, September 2012
Promotional activity remains a driver
More than a quarter are habitual on flavour choice…
Figure 61: Agreement with the statement ‘I always buy the same flavour(s)’ with regards to purchasing fruit juice, juice drinks or smoothies, by age, September 2012
…women attempt to cater to the whole household
Larger pack sizes appeal to bigger households
CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS FRUIT JUICE DRINKS
Key points
Refreshment appeals to three in ten
Figure 62: Attitudes towards fruit juice drinks, September 2012
Fruit juice drinks are rarely seen as healthier than fizzy drinks
Affordability and suitability for the lunchbox appeal to sizeable minority
Figure 63: Agreement with the statements regarding fruit juice drinks ‘They are affordable’ and ‘They are ideal for lunchboxes’, by presence of children and household size, September 2012
CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS 100% PURE FRUIT JUICE
Key points
Providing refreshment to consumers
Figure 64: Attitudes towards pure fruit juice, September 2012
Figure 65: Agreement with the statement ‘It goes off too quickly’, by usage of fresh/chilled fruit juice and long-life fruit juice, September 2012
Fruit juice enjoys a strong positioning on health
Chilled varieties are perceived to be healthier
CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS SMOOTHIES
Key points
Fruit and veg content is a driver to usage
Figure 66: Attitudes towards smoothies, September 2012
The ‘healthy treat’ positioning is a unique proposition
Added benefits appeal
Smoothies seen as more filling and healthier than juices
Consumers experiment on flavours, not on brands
Figure 67: Agreement with the statement ‘I like to try new/limited edition flavours’, by age, September 2012
Figure 68: Agreement with the statement ‘I prefer the taste of branded varieties’, September 2012
CONSUMER – TARGET GROUPS – PURE JUICE
Key points
Three target groups
Figure 69: Target groups based on attitudes towards 100% pure fruit juice (long-life or chilled), September 2012
Reluctant (10%)
Discerning (48%)
Engaged (42%)
APPENDIX – MARKET DRIVERS
Figure 70: Annual RPI percentage change for soft drinks, all items and food, January 2008-September 2012
Figure 71: Healthy lifestyles and eating/snacking habits, by demographics, 2012
Figure 72: Healthy lifestyles and eating/snacking habits, by demographics, 2012
Figure 73: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2007-17
Figure 74: UK households, by size, 2007-17
Figure 75: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2007-17
APPENDIX – WHO’S INNOVATING?
Figure 76: NPD for fruit juices, juice drinks and smoothies, by sub-category, 2007-12
Figure 77: NPD for fruit juices, juice drinks and smoothies, by product claim, 2007-12
Figure 78: NPD for fruit juices, juice drinks and smoothies, by flavour component, 2007-12
Figure 79: NPD for fruit juices, juice drinks and smoothies, by flavour (including blend), 2007-12
Figure 80: NPD for fruit juices, juice drinks and smoothies, by private label, 2007-12
Figure 81: NPD for fruit juices, juice drinks and smoothies, by top companies, 2007-12
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 82: Best- and worst-case forecasts for fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, value sales, 2012-17
Figure 83: Best- and worst-case forecasts for fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, volume sales, 2012-17
Figure 84: Best- and worst-case forecasts for fruit juice, value sales, 2012-17
Figure 85: Best- and worst-case forecasts for fruit juice, volume sales, 2012-17
Figure 86: Best- and worst-case forecasts for juice drinks, value sales, 2012-17
Figure 87: Best- and worst-case forecasts for juice drinks, volume sales, 2012-17
Figure 88: Best- and worst-case forecasts for smoothies, value sales, 2012-17
Figure 89: Best- and worst-case forecasts for smoothies, volume sales, 2012-17
APPENDIX – BRAND RESEARCH
Figure 90: Brand usage, September 2012
Figure 91: Brand commitment, September 2012
Figure 92: Brand momentum, September 2012
Figure 93: Brand diversity, September 2012
Figure 94: Brand satisfaction, September 2012
Figure 95: Brand recommendation, September 2012
Figure 96: Brand attitude, September 2012
Figure 97: Brand image – Macro image, September 2012
Figure 98: Brand image – Micro image, September 2012
Figure 99: Profile of target groups, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 100: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, September 2012
Figure 101: Brand usage, by target groups, September 2012
Brand index
Figure 102: Brand index, September 2012
APPENDIX – BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Figure 103: Total media advertising expenditure on fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by advertiser, 2009-12
Figure 104: Total media advertising expenditure on fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by leading brands, 2009-12
Figure 105: Total media advertising expenditure on fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by product category, 2009-12
APPENDIX – CONSUMER USAGE
Figure 106: Consumption of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies in the past six months, by frequency, September 2012
Figure 107: Consumption of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies in the past six months, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 108: Consumption of fruit juice/juice drinks excl. smoothies in the past six months, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 109: Consumption of fresh/chilled fruit juice in the past six months, by frequency, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 110: Consumption of fresh/chilled fruit juice in the past six months, by frequency, by demographics, September 2012 (continued)
Figure 111: Consumption of fruit juice drinks in the past six months, by frequency, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 112: Consumption of fruit juice drinks in the past six months, by frequency, by demographics, September 2012 (continued)
Figure 113: Consumption of long-life fruit juice in the past six months, by frequency, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 114: Consumption of long-life fruit juice in the past six months, by frequency, by demographics, September 2012 (continued)
Figure 115: Consumption of smoothies in the past six months, by frequency, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 116: Consumption of fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, by demographics, September 2012
APPENDIX – CONSUMER OCCASIONS
Figure 117: Fruit juices and smoothies purchases, by occasion, September 2012
Figure 118: Purchasing habits of fruit juices and smoothies, by type, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 119: Most popular occasions for which fruit juices and smoothies have been purchased, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 120: Next most popular occasions for which fruit juices and smoothies have been purchased, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 121: Most popular occasions for which fruit juice drinks have been purchased, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 122: Next most popular occasions for which fruit juice drinks have been purchased, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 123: Most popular occasions for which long-life fruit juice has been purchased, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 124: Next most popular occasions for which long-life fruit juice has been purchased, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 125: Most popular occasions for which smoothies have been purchased, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 126: Next most popular occasions for which smoothies have been purchased, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 127: Purchasing habits of fruit juices and smoothies ‘for my children’s lunchbox’, by demographics, September 2012
APPENDIX – CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
Figure 128: Attitudes towards purchasing fruit juice, juice drinks or smoothies, September 2012
Figure 129: Most popular attitudes towards purchasing fruit juice, juice drinks or smoothies, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 130: Next most popular attitudes towards purchasing fruit juice, juice drinks or smoothies, by demographics, September 2012
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS FRUIT JUICE DRINKS
Figure 131: Attitudes towards fruit juice drinks, September 2012
Figure 132: Most popular attitudes towards fruit juice drinks, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 133: Next most popular attitudes towards fruit juice drinks, by demographics, September 2012
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS 100% PURE FRUIT JUICE
Figure 134: Attitudes towards pure fruit juice, September 2012
Figure 135: Agreement with the statements ‘I find the taste refreshing’ and ‘They are an easy way to boost my vitamin levels’, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 136: Agreement with the statements ‘Chilled varieties are healthier than long-life products’ and ‘Drinks with fruity bits are healthier’, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 137: Agreement with the statements ‘They contain too much sugar’ and ‘It’s worth paying more for fruit juice with added benefits’, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 138: Agreement with the statements ‘They are not as healthy as fresh fruit/veg’ and ‘It goes off too quickly’, by demographics, September 2012
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS SMOOTHIES
Figure 139: Attitudes towards smoothies, September 2012
Figure 140: Agreement with the statements ‘They are a good way to get part of your 5-a-day (fruit and veg)’ and ‘They are a healthy treat’, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 141: Agreement with the statements ‘They are more filling than juice drinks’ and ‘I like to try new/limited edition flavours’, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 142: Agreement with the statements ‘I am willing to pay more for a drink with higher fruit content’ and ‘They are a healthier alternative to fruit juice’, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 143: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer the taste of branded varieties’ and ‘I buy versions with health benefits’, by demographics, September 2012
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – TARGET GROUPS – PURE JUICE
Figure 144: Target groups, by demographics, September 2012
Figure 145: Consumption of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies in the past six months, by target groups, September 2012
Figure 146: Purchasing habits of fruit juices and smoothies, by occasion, by target groups, September 2012
Figure 147: Attitudes towards purchasing fruit juice, juice drinks or smoothies, by target groups, September 2012
Figure 148: Attitudes towards statements on pure fruit juice, by target groups, September 2012

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