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Pizza at Retail - US - July 2013

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Overview
A declining market as spending power returns
Figure 1: Total market sales and fan chart forecast of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2008-18
Economic rebound dents sales, but demographic factors help
Figure 2: U.S. child population changes, 2013-18
Supermarkets account for 60% of the market
Figure 3: Sales of pizza at retail, by channel, 2011 and 2013
Four major players
The consumer
Seven in 10 report eating frozen/refrigerated pizza in last six months
Figure 4: Types of pizza eaten last 6 months, by age, April 2013
Roughly seven in 10 agree frozen pizza helps deal with immediate hunger
Figure 5: Attitudes toward store-bought pizza, April 2013
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Consumers see restaurant quality as better than frozen/refrigerated
Insight: Improve quality, stress healthfulness
Store brands are stepping up quality, offerings
Insight: retailers should hold in-store tastings of new pizzas
Refrigerated brands need to improve their image
Insight: refrigerated should emphasize freshness
TREND APPLICATIONS
Trend: The Real Thing
Trend: Snack Society
Mintel Futures: Access Anything, Anywhere
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
As spending power rebounds, frozen pizza becomes less attractive
Households with kids likely to help slow declines
Sales forecast of pizza at retail
Figure 6: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2008-18
Figure 7: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of pizza at retail, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-18
Fan chart forecast
Figure 8: Total Market sales and fan chart forecast of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2008-18
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Pizza at retail sales slow as economy rebounds
Figure 9: Pizza consumption compared to a year ago, April 2013
Kids drive sales, but parents increasingly want healthy options
Figure 10: Household consumption of frozen pizza; household usage of pizza sauce; and household usage of packaged, ready-made pizza crust, by presence of children in the household, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 11: Types of pizza eaten last 6 months, by presence of children in the household, April 2013
Childhood obesity rates may reduce the frequency of kids’ pizza consumption
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Pizza chains compete with wider menus, delivery, fun atmospheres
Kid-friendly atmosphere is a draw at restaurants
Pizza chain marketing features comprehensive strategies
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Frozen pizza comprises more than 80% of the market
Other segments manage moderate growth
Sales of pizza at retail, by segment
Figure 12: Sales of pizza at retail, segmented by type, 2011 and 2013
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—FROZEN PIZZA
Key points
Frozen pizza brands must look to BFY: healthy/natural/organic to grow sales
Sales and forecast of frozen pizza
Figure 13: Sales and forecast of frozen pizza, at current prices, 2008-18
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—REFRIGERATED/FROZEN CRUST/DOUGH KITS
Key points
Fluctuating sales but a brighter future ahead
Sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen crust/dough kits
Figure 14: Sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen crust/dough kits, at current prices, 2008-18
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—TAKE-AND-BAKE PIZZA
Key points
Take-and-bake popularity fades
Sales and forecast of take-and-bake pizza
Figure 15: Sales and forecast of take-and-bake pizza, at current prices, 2008-18
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—SHELF-STABLE KITS, CRUSTS/CRUST MIXES, SAUCES
Key points
Slow growth expected
Sales and forecast of shelf-stable kits, crusts/crust mixes, sauces
Figure 16: Sales and forecast of shelf-stable kits, crusts/crust mixes, sauces, at current prices, 2008-18
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Supermarkets remain the go-to outlet
Sales of pizza at retail, by channel
Figure 17: Sales of pizza at retail, by channel, 2011 and 2013
Supermarkets decline or flatline each year except 2009
Figure 18: Supermarket sales of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2008-13
Other channels grow nearly every year from 2008 to 2013
Figure 19: Other channel sales of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2008-13
RETAIL CHANNELS—NATURAL SUPERMARKETS
Key points
Insights
Sales of pizza in the natural channel
Figure 20: Natural supermarket sales of pizza, at current prices, 2011-13*
Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of pizza at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-13*
Natural channel sales of pizza by segment
Figure 22: Natural supermarket sales of pizza, by segment, 2011 and 2013*
Brands of note
Natural channel sales of pizza by organic
Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of pizza, by organic, 2010 and 2012*
Natural channel sales of pizza by gluten-free
Figure 24: Natural supermarket sales of pizza, by gluten-free, 2011 and 2013*
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
Nestlé S.A. comprises 41% of the market
Schwan Food Co. accounts for 17.8% share, drops 4.2%
General Mills and Pinnacle Foods Co. hold small share
Private label makes up 14.5% of the market
MULO sales of pizza at retail product companies
Figure 25: MULO sales of pizza at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012-13
BRAND SHARE—FROZEN PIZZA
Key points
Tombstone Double Top doubles sales
Tony’s capitalizes on need for personal size pizzas
Private label declines, reflecting general falling market
MULO sales of frozen pizza brands
Figure 26: MULO sales of frozen pizza brands, 2012-13
BRAND SHARE—REFRIGERATED/FROZEN CRUST/DOUGH KITS
Key points
National brands account for small share
Consumers see value, comparable quality in private label
MULO sales of refrigerated/frozen crust/dough kit brands
Figure 27: MULO sales of refrigerated/frozen crust/dough kit brands, 2012-13
BRAND SHARE—SHELF-STABLE PIZZA KITS, CRUSTS, AND SAUCES
Key points
Segment leader Boboli drops 10.2%; other leading brands also fall
Private label a strong presence
MULO sales of shelf-stable pizza kits, crusts, and sauces
Figure 28: MULO sales of shelf-stable pizza kits, crusts, and sauces brands, 2012-13
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Environmentally friendly claims can be persuasive
Figure 29: Frozen pizza product claims, 2008-13
New flavors keep the category interesting
Changing the shape and size of pizza
Natural/organic equates to BFY
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview of the brand landscape
Brand analysis: DiGiorno
Figure 30: Brand analysis of DiGiorno, 2013
Online initiatives
TV presence
Figure 31: DiGiorno Pizzeria! television ad, 2013
Figure 32: DiGiorno television ad, 2013
Brand analysis: Red Baron
Figure 33: Brand analysis of Red Baron, 2013
Online initiatives
TV presence
Figure 34: Red Baron television ad, 2013
Brand analysis: Freschetta
Figure 35: Brand analysis of Freschetta, 2013
Online initiatives
TV presence
Figure 36: Freschetta television ad, 2013
Brand analysis: Totino’s
Figure 37: Brand analysis of Totino’s, 2013
Online initiatives
TV presence
Figure 38: Totino’s Party Pizza television ad, 2012
Figure 39: Totino’s Pizza Rolls television ad, 2013
SOCIAL MEDIA
Key points
Social media metrics
Figure 40: Key performance indicators, June 2013
Market overview
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 41: Brand usage and awareness of frozen pizza brands, April 2013
Interaction with pizza brands
Figure 42: Interaction with selected pizza brands, May 2013
Online conversations
Figure 43: Online conversations on selected pizza brands, by day, May 29-June 28, 2013
Where are people talking about pizza brands?
Figure 44: Online conversations on selected pizza brands, by page type, May 29-June 28, 2013
What are people talking about?
Figure 45: Types of conversations around selected pizza brands, May 29-June 28, 2013
Figure 46: Types of conversations around selected pizza brands, by day, May 29-June 28, 2013
 ANALYSIS BY BRAND
DiGiorno
Figure 47: DiGiorno—key social media indicators, June 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Tony’s Pizza
Figure 48: Tony’s Pizza—key social media indicators, June 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Red Baron
Figure 49: Red Baron—key social media indicators, June 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Tombstone
Figure 50: Tombstone—key social media indicators, June 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Boboli
Figure 51: Boboli—key social media indicators, June 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Mama Mary’s
Figure 52: Mama Mary’s—key social media indicators, June 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
HOUSEHOLD USAGE
Key points
Nearly two thirds eat frozen pizza
Figure 53: Household consumption of frozen pizza and household usage of pizza sauce and packaged, ready-made pizza crust, by age, October 2011-November 2012
Household income appears to have little income on consumption, usage
Figure 54: Household consumption of frozen pizza and household usage of pizza sauce and packaged, ready-made pizza crust, by household income, October 2011-November 2012
TYPES OF PIZZA EATEN IN AND OUT OF HOME
Key points
Takeout/delivery eaten more than any other type of pizza
Figure 55: Types of pizza eaten last 6 months, by age, April 2013
Household income dictates consumption of takeout/delivery and frozen
Figure 56: Types of pizza eaten last 6 months, by household income, April 2013
BRANDS USED
Key points
DiGiorno tops brands used
Figure 57: Frozen pizza brands eaten in household, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011-November 2012
Respondents use Ragu more than any other type of pizza sauce
Figure 58: Pizza sauce brands most often used in household, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011-November 2012
DiGiorno also tops ready-made crust among households
Figure 59: Packaged, ready-made pizza crust brands most often used in household, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011-November 2012
PIZZA CONSUMPTION COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO
Key points
More than half are buying more/same amount of frozen pizza
Figure 60: Pizza consumption compared to a year ago—eating more or the same, by age, April 2013
<$25K least likely to be buying more/same amount of restaurant pizza
Figure 61: Pizza consumption compared to a year ago—eating more or the same, by household income, April 2013
Kids in the household can mean buying more/the same amount of pizza
Figure 62: Pizza consumption compared to a year ago—eating more or the same, by presence of children in household, April 2013
STORE-BOUGHT PIZZA PURCHASE HABITS
Key points
Nearly half buy the same type of frozen pizza every time
Figure 63: Store-bought pizza purchase habits, by age, April 2013
<$25K most likely to stick with same type and brand every time
Figure 64: Store-bought pizza purchase habits, by household income, April 2013
Respondents who want sides most likely to stick with same type, brand
Figure 65: Store-bought pizza purchase habits, by interest in store-bought pizza types, April 2013
IMPORTANCE OF HEALTH-RELATED PRODUCT ATTRIBUTES
Key points
Interest in health-related attributes is relatively low
Figure 66: Importance of health-related product attributes, by age, April 2013
$150K+ most likely to say natural/organic is important
Figure 67: Importance of health-related product attributes, by household income, April 2013
INTEREST IN STORE-BOUGHT PIZZA TYPES
Key points
Nearly half interested in a wider variety of pizza styles
Figure 68: Interest in store-bought pizza types, by age, April 2013
$150K+ most interested in added nutritional benefits
Figure 69: Interest in store-bought pizza types, by household income, April 2013
ATTITUDES TOWARD STORE-BOUGHT PIZZA
Key points
Roughly seven in 10 agree frozen pizza deals with immediate hunger
Figure 70: Attitudes toward store-bought pizza, April 2013
18-34 most likely to appreciate convenience, store brands
Figure 71: Agreement toward interest in store-bought pizza types, by age, April 2013
$75K+ most likely to say restaurant pizza tastes better, worth the cost
Figure 72: Agreement toward interest in store-bought pizza types, by household income, April 2013
IMPACT OF RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Blacks report higher than average consumption/usage
Figure 73: Household consumption of frozen pizza; household usage of pizza sauce; and household usage of packaged, ready-made pizza crust, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 74: Number of frozen pizzas eaten by household in last 30 days, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011-November 2012
Blacks most likely to buy same type of pizza every time
Figure 75: Store-bought pizza purchase habits, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2013
Blacks and Hispanics most likely to want side dishes with frozen pizza
Figure 76: Interest in store-bought pizza types, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2013
Blacks most likely to say pizza is a good option for lunch at work/school
Figure 77: Agreement toward interest in store-bought pizza types, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2013
TEEN USAGE
Key points
More than three quarters of teens eat frozen pizza
Figure 78: Teen consumption of frozen pizzas (bought frozen), October 2011-November 2012
A quarter of teens ate five to seven frozen pizzas in the last month
Figure 79: Number of frozen pizzas eaten by teens in last 30 days, October 2011-November 2012
DiGiorno tops brands eaten by teens
Figure 80: Brands of frozen pizzas teens eat, October 2011-November 2012
KIDS USAGE
Key points
Eight in 10 kids eat frozen pizza
Figure 81: Frozen pizza consumption among kids, October 2011-November 2012
Half of kids eat frozen pizza one to four per month
Figure 82: Number of times frozen pizza was eaten by kids in the last month, October 2011-November 2012
DiGiorno tops brands eaten by kids
Figure 83: Kinds of frozen pizzas kids like best, October 2011-November 2012
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Cluster 1: Deep Dishers
Demographics
Characteristics
Figure 84: Attitudes toward store-bought pizza, by target clusters, April 2013
Opportunity
Cluster 2: Periodic Pizzas
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster 3: Pizza People
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristic tables
Figure 85: Target clusters, April 2013
Figure 86: Types of pizza eaten last 6 months, by target clusters, April 2013
Figure 87: Pizza consumption compared to a year ago—eating more or the same, by target clusters, April 2013
Figure 88: Store-bought pizza purchase habits, by target clusters, April 2013
Figure 89: Importance of health-related product attributes, by target clusters, April 2013
Figure 90: Interest in store-bought pizza types, by target clusters, April 2013
Figure 91: Agreement toward interest in store-bought pizza types, by target clusters, April 2013
Cluster demographic tables
Figure 92: Target clusters, by demographic, April 2013
Cluster methodology
INFORMATION RESOURCES INC. GROUP BUILDERS PANEL DATA
 FROZEN PIZZA
Consumer insights on key purchase measures—frozen pizza
Brand map
Figure 93: Brand map, selected brands of frozen pizza buying rate, by household penetration, 2012*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 94: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen pizza, by household penetration, 2012*
APPENDIX: MARKET DRIVERS
Consumer confidence
Figure 95: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
Unemployment
Figure 96: U.S. Unemployment Rate, by month, 2002-13
Figure 97: U.S. Unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13
Figure 98: Number of employed civilians in U.S., in thousands, 2007-13
Food cost pressures
Figure 99: Changes in USDA Food Price Indexes, 2011 through May 24, 2013
Obesity
Figure 100: U.S. obesity, by age group, 2008 and 2012
Childhood and teen obesity—highest in decades
Figure 101: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
Racial, ethnic population growth
Figure 102: U.S. population by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
Figure 103: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
Shifting U.S. demographics
Figure 104: U.S. population, by age, 2008-18
Figure 105: U.S. households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
APPENDIX: SOCIAL MEDIA
Brand usage or awareness
Figure 106: Brand usage or awareness, April 2013
Figure 107: Boboli usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 108: Mama Mary’s usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 109: Red Baron usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 110: Tony’s Pizza usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 111: DiGiorno usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 112: Tombstone usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2013
Activities done
Figure 113: Activities done, April 2013
Figure 114: Boboli – Activities done, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 115: Red Baron – Activities done, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 116: Tony’s Pizza – Activities done, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 117: DiGiorno – Activities done, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 118: Tombstone – Activities done, by demographics, April 2013
Online conversations
Figure 119: Online conversations on selected pizza brands, by day, May 29-June 28, 2013
Figure 120: Online conversations on selected tea brands, by page type, May 18-June 17, 2013
Figure 121: Online conversations on selected pizza brands, May 29-June 28, 2013
Figure 122: Types of conversations around selected pizza brands, May 29-June 28, 2013
APPENDIX: OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Pizza consumption compared to a year ago
Figure 123: Pizza consumption compared to a year ago—eating more or the same, by gender, April 2013
Impact of race/Hispanic origin
Figure 124: Pizza consumption compared to a year ago—eating more or the same, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2013
Figure 125: Importance of health-related product attributes, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2013
APPENDIX: INFORMATION RESOURCES INC. BUILDERS PANEL DATA DEFINITIONS
Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

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