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UK Retail Briefing - October 2013

ANALYST COMMENT
It will be a good Christmas for retailers
4% growth this December
Figure 1: Christmas performance, 2005-13
Easier comparisons in the run up to Christmas
Improving consumer background
Figure 2: How do you feel about your finances? 2009-13
Figure 3: RPI vs average weekly earnings growth, 2008-13
Prospects for 2014 look better too
How much will we spend?
But how much do we actually spend on Christmas?
How much will we spend online?
What are consumers planning?
Figure 4: Attitudes to buying presents for Christmas 2013, September 2013
Profiles of shoppers by attitudes
Figure 5: Profile of holders of attitudes to buying presents for Christmas 2013, September 2013
RETAIL SALES – BACKGROUND AND OUTLOOK
Key points
Retail sales trends
Figure 6: Retail sales trends, 2012-13
BRC data for July
Figure 7: UK retail sales year-on-year growth, BRC vs ONS, 2012-13
John Lewis
Figure 8: John Lewis: Year-on-year growth, 2012-13
Inflation and wages
Inflation
Figure 9: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2012-13
Looking forward
SECTOR FOCUS – THE VALUE MIXED-GOODS RETAILERS
The mixed goods sector: driven by discounters and department stores
Figure 10: Retail sales: Mixed-goods sector (incl. VAT), 2008-13
Leading value retailers see rapid growth
Figure 11: Total sales of all mixed-goods retailers and the eight leading value mixed-goods retailers (excl. VAT), 2008-13
Figure 12: Share of all retail sales taken by the eight leading value mixed-goods retailers, 2008-13
Figure 13: Total store numbers of the eight leading value mixed-goods retailers, 2008-12
Leading mixed goods retailers’ sales and market shares
Figure 14: Leading mixed-goods retailers’ net revenues, 2008-12
Figure 15: Leading mixed-goods retailers’ share of mixed-goods sector sales, 2008-12
Figure 16: Leading mixed-goods retailers’ store numbers, 2008-12
The consumer: feeling better off, shopping around less
Figure 17: Mintel’s Consumer Tracker: percentage of consumers saying they are better off/worse off than one year ago, October 2011-September 2013
Figure 18: Consumer confidence indicator: September 2012-August 2013
Figure 19: Mintel’s Consumer Tracker: Agreement with selected statements on grocery/food shopping, March 2012-August 2013
What this means
HEADLINES FOR THE MONTH
Grocers
Other food specialists
Clothing retailing
Department stores
DIY retailing
Home shopping
Books and stationery retailing
Sports and leisure goods retailing
Economy
NEWS ANALYSIS – FOOD AND DRINK
Bakers
Greggs sees demand pick-up
Co-ops
Co-op to introduce student discount on food
Midlands and Anglian Co-operatives to merge
Grocers
Aldi profits soar
Asda
…stop sale of inappropriate costume
…profits up in 2012
Iceland spend £7 million on new advertising
Lidl hires new operations director
Morrisons
…posts half-year results
…to cut back on supermarket investment
Sainsbury's
…continues strong growth
…unveils new store format
Tesco
…first-half profits fall 7.6%
…hires Karen Dracou to multichannel team
…launches Blinkbox ad campaign
…launches event for start-ups
…launches its Hudl tablet
…launches new customer magazine
…re-launches Finest range
…sells Fresh & Easy to Yucaipa
…Fresh & Easy eyes bankruptcy
UK supermarkets face challenges from competitors
Waitrose
…launches vulnerable people initiative
…to open second ‘dark’ store
Other food specialists
Thorntons
NEWS ANALYSIS – NON-FOOD
Clothing retailing
Burberry set to open first store in Scotland
David’s Bridal opens in the UK
French Connection narrows losses
Go Outdoors enters deal to invest in growth
J Crew opens first UK store
Jack Wills
Jacques Vert to launch cross-brand marketing campaign
Jaeger cuts trading losses in the year
Kathmandu launches ad campaign as part of rebrand
Laura Ashley has challenging first half
Longchamp opens its biggest store on Regent Street
LVMH buys stake in Nicholas Kirkwood
Matalan’s Sporting Pro launches website
Moss Bros
Next first-half profits rise 8.2%
Primark
River Island profits up
Ted Baker sees sales surge
Topshop
Mixed goods retailing
Home Bargains to open new stores
Poundland sees profit and sales jump
Wilkinson restructures management
Multi-sector retailing
Home Retail Group releases second quarter data
Marks & Spencer
Department stores
Bhs launches new TV ad campaign
Debenhams
Harrods preparing for store overhaul
House of Fraser
John Lewis
DIY retailing
Kingfisher
Topps Tiles expects rise in profits
Electrical retailing
Carphone Warehouse invests in sales process
Carpet retailing
Carpetright sees chief executive exit
Furniture retailing
DFS
Ikea
Homewares retailing
Dunelm
Lakeland
Home shopping
Amazon
Ao.com launches same day delivery
Asda launches online delivery deal
Asos
Boden sees profits rise
Findel’s first-half sales up
EBay sellers to offer collection at Argos
JML to launch TV shopping channel
Mobile devices account for all online sales growth
N Brown Group records sales growth
Ocado sees surge in third quarter sales
Photobox full-year EBITDA jumps 19%
Shop Direct hires first customer director
The Hut
Health and beauty retailing
Alliance Boots management reshuffle
The Perfume Shop offers 90-minute delivery
Books and stationery retailing
The Works sees profits decline
WHSmith reveals profits above expectations
Sports and leisure goods retailing
JD Sports sees profits soar
Reebok opens first UK store
Sports Direct
Sweaty Betty sees web sales climb
Garden centres
Louis Delhaize sells garden centres
Opticians
Vision Express acquires 20:20 Optical Store
Toys and games retailing
Hobbycraft sees sales rise following investment
Shopping centres
Croydon Village Outlet closes due to overwhelming crowds
Economy
August footfall drops 0.9%
Government to introduce plastic bag charge
Net store closures fall 78%
Retailers to launch mobile payment in 2014
September sees weak UK retail sales
Strong sales growth continues
APPENDIX – CHRISTMAS SHOPPING HABITS – DETAILED DEMOGRAPHICS
Figure 20: Attitudes to buying Christmas gifts, by detailed demographics, October 2013
Figure 21: Attitudes to buying Christmas gifts, by detailed demographics, October 2013 (continued)
Figure 22: Attitudes to buying Christmas gifts, by detailed demographics, October 2013 (continued)

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