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Beer - UK - December 2013

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of beer, 2008-18
Figure 2: Forecast of UK volume sales of beer, 2008-18
Market factors
Alcohol consumption is in decline
End of the road for the beer escalator
Population changes entail threats and opportunities
The rise of craft brewers
Beer looks to become even more versatile
Companies, brands and innovation
Stella Artois under increasing pressure from Foster’s
Figure 3: Value sales of top-selling beer brands in the off-trade, 2012/13
Rush of innovation in lower ABV
Beer adspend remains high
The consumer
Lager remains the most popular type of beer
Figure 4: Usage of different types of beer within the past six months, September 2013
More than three in five beer drinkers do so weekly
Net downturn in usage in the market
Lager is the most emotive type of beer
Brand leads the way for beer drinkers
Figure 5: Factors considered when buying beer, September 2013
Beer brands can encourage trading up by leveraging quality
Figure 6: Users' attitudes towards beers, September 2013
Craft beers continue to forge ahead
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
Can cask ales play a role in boosting on-trade use?
How can beer boost its appeal to female drinkers?
How can beers build brand preference?
How can stout address its ‘heavy-going’ image?
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: Many Mes
Trend: Locavore
Mintel Futures: Generation Next
INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Taxation on alcoholic drinks on the rise since 2008
Figure 7: UK excise duty rates for selected alcoholic drinks, 2003-13
Figure 8: Index of alcoholic drinks prices versus all items prices, 2006-12
Figure 9: RPI indexed annual change for all items and beer (on- and off-trade), 2000-12
Craft producers and premium associations
Beer remains well placed to tap into a variety of occasions
Figure 10: In-home and out-of-home drinking occasions, April 2013
Bridging the gender divide
Figure 11: Usage of beers, by type, by gender, September 2013
BROADER MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Consumer confidence bounces back
Figure 12: Disposable income vs expenditure per head (£), 1997-2012
Figure 13: Consumer Confidence Index, monthly, January 2007-November 2013
Figure 14: Hours of sunshine in the UK, by month, 2008-13
Avoiding the ‘beer belly’
Figure 15: Calorie and alcohol unit content of selected types of alcoholic drinks, 2013
An aging population poses issues for the beer market
Figure 16: Projected trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2013-18
C2s could hold the key to growth
Figure 17: Changes in the adult socio-economic structure of the UK population, 2013-18
Minimum pricing plans shelved in England and Wales
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Consumers cutting back on alcohol consumption
Figure 18: Trends in UK per capita consumption of 100% alcohol, 2006-12
Figure 19: Value sales of selected alcoholic drink categories, 2008-12
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Lower-alcohol beers grow in popularity
The rise of spirit beers
Other flavoured beer innovation
Alcoholic ginger beer sees a number of new operators
Matching beer with food
Playing it cool
‘Global’ beer launches remain commonplace
Selected other NPD in the UK
Global context – interesting beer launches from overseas in 2013
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Beer value sales creep up but volumes continue to slide
Figure 20: UK value and volume sales of beer, at current and constant prices, 2008-18
Figure 21: Forecast of UK value sales of beer, 2008-18
Figure 22: Forecast of UK volume sales of beer, 2008-18
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Lager
Figure 23: UK value and volume sales of lager, at current and constant prices, 2008-18
Figure 24: Forecast of UK value sales of lager, 2008-18
Ale/Bitter
Figure 25: UK value and volume sales of ale/bitter, at current and constant prices, 2008-18
Figure 26: Forecast of UK value sales of ale/bitter, 2008-18
Stout/Porter
Figure 27: UK value and volume sales of stout/porter, at current and constant prices, 2008-18
Figure 28: Forecast of UK value sales of stout/porter, 2008-18
MARKET SHARE
Key points
AB InBev leads the way in lager
Figure 29: Leading manufacturers’ shares of lager sales in the off-trade, 2012/13
Figure 30: Value sales of top-selling lager brands in the off-trade, 2011/12 and 2012/13
Foster’s closing the gap at the top of the table
Tough times for Carlsberg
Mixed fortunes for Molson Coors
Round-up of other brands/own-label
Heineken’s John Smith’s leads the ale/bitter segment
Figure 31: Manufacturers’ shares of ale/bitter/ginger beer sales in the off-trade, 2012/13
Figure 32: Value sales of top-selling ale/bitter/ginger beer brands in the off-trade, 2011/12 and 2012/13
Guinness dominates stout
Figure 33: Manufacturer share of stout sales in the off-trade, 2012/13
Figure 34: Value sales of top-selling stout brands in the off-trade, 2011/12 and 2012/13
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
AB InBev
Overview
Product range
Recent activity and innovation
Brand communication and promotion
Carlsberg
Overview
Product range
Recent activity and innovation
Brand communication and promotion
Diageo
Overview
Product range
Recent activity and innovation
Brand communication and promotion
Heineken
Overview
Product range
Recent activity and innovation
Brand communication and promotion
Molson Coors
Overview
Product range
Recent activity and innovation
Brand communication and promotion
SAB Miller (Miller Brands)
Overview
Product range
Recent activity and innovation
Brand communication and promotion
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 35: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the beer sector, October 2013
Correspondence analysis
Brand attitudes
Figure 36: Attitudes, by beer brand, October 2013
Brand personality
Figure 37: Beer brand personality – macro image, October 2013
Figure 38: Beer brand personality – micro image, October 2013
Brand experience
Figure 39: Beer brand usage, October 2013
Figure 40: Satisfaction with various beer brands, October 2013
Figure 41: Consideration of beer brands, October 2013
Figure 42: Consumer perceptions of current beer brand performance, October 2013
Brand index
Figure 43: Beer brand index, October 2013
Target group analysis
Figure 44: Target groups, October 2013
Figure 45: Beer brand usage, by target groups, October 2013
Group One – Conformists
Group Two – Simply the Best
Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
Group Five – Individualists
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Adspend continues to nudge upwards
Figure 46: Above-the-line adspend in the UK beer market, 2010-13
Lager dominates adspend of beer
Figure 47: Advertising spending in the UK beer sector, by category, 2012
AB InBev loses adspend top spot in 2012
Figure 48: Leading advertisers in the UK beer category, by company, 2012
Figure 49: Leading advertisers in the UK beer category, by company, 2010-13
Figure 50: Leading advertisers in the UK beer category, by brand, 2012
Figure 51: Leading advertisers in the UK beer category, by brand, 2010-13
Molson Coors jumps to the head of the queue…
…followed by Heineken
…while Guinness was actually the leading beer brand advertised in 2012
Other selected campaigns and trends
TV is the preferred media for beer advertisers
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
Off-trade volumes prove to be more robust
Figure 52: UK value and volume sales of beer in the off-trade, at current and constant prices, 2008-13
Figure 53: UK value and volume sales of beer in the on-trade, at current and constant prices, 2008-13
The multiple grocers remain dominant
THE CONSUMER – USAGE OF BEER
Key points
Seven in ten adults are beer drinkers
Lager continues to lead the way
Figure 54: Usage of different types of beer within the past six months, September 2013
Figure 55: Usage of different types of beer within the past six months, by age and gender, September 2013
Lager is particularly popular for drinking at home
Figure 56: Usage of different types of beer within the past six months, by location, September 2013
Smaller categories enjoy equal usage in the on- and off-trade
One in five adults drinks five or more types of beer
Figure 57: Repertoire of purchase of different types of beer, September 2013
THE CONSUMER – FREQUENCY OF USAGE
Key points
63% of beer drinkers do so at least once a week
Figure 58: Frequency of drinking beer, September 2013
THE CONSUMER – CHANGES IN USAGE HABITS
Key points
A greater share of beer drinkers are cutting back than drinking more
Figure 59: Changes in beer drinking habits, September 2013
Evidence of cutting back in 2013
Figure 60: Comparison of usage of different types of beer, by gender, October 2012 and September 2013
Beer drinkers feel the pinch but health also plays a part
Figure 61: Reasons for cutting back on beer, September 2013
Increasing competition from other drink categories
THE CONSUMER – PERCEPTIONS OF BEER
Key points
The different types of beer hold very differing images
Figure 62: Perceptions of types of beer, September 2013
Lager seen as the most refreshing type of beer
Figure 63: Perceptions of lager, September 2013
Ale/Bitter seen primarily as old-fashioned
Figure 64: Perceptions of ale/bitter, September 2013
Stout/Porter seen as old-fashioned and filling
Figure 65: Perceptions of stout/porter, September 2013
Alcoholic ginger beer still forging its image
Figure 66: Perceptions of alcoholic ginger beer, September 2013
Flavoured beer seen as a younger person’s drink
Figure 67: Perceptions of flavoured beer, September 2013
THE CONSUMER – CHOICE FACTORS
Key points
Brand leads the way for beer drinkers
Figure 68: Factors considered when buying beer, September 2013
Figure 69: Favourite brand as a leading choice factor, by gender and age, September 2013
Low price only cited by two in five
Room for experimentation
David vs Goliath
Alcohol content is only of limited importance
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS BEER
Key points
Beer brands can encourage trading up by leveraging quality
Figure 70: Users' attitudes towards beers, September 2013
Two thirds of beer drinkers are prepared to pay more for better quality
Figure 71: Users' attitudes towards premium beers, September 2013
First harvest hops and time taken in production can project a premium image
Bottles perceived to provide a better tasting beer
Figure 72: Users' attitudes towards the taste of beer, September 2013
Low-alcohol beers continue to struggle with poor taste image
Half of beer drinkers adopt a purist’s attitude…
Figure 73: Users' attitudes towards flavoured beers, September 2013
…while half like to mix and match beer brands
Figure 74: Users' attitudes towards NPD/different types of beers, September 2013
More scope for co-branding
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS CRAFT BEERS
Key points
Craft producers can appeal by supporting local producers
Figure 75: Users' attitudes towards craft beers, September 2013
What does ‘craft’ mean?
Large brewers have scope to move into craft beer
35% of beer drinkers think that craft beers are worth paying more for
THE CONSUMER – TARGET GROUPS
Key points
Four target groups
Figure 76: Target groups, September 2013
Disengaged (32%)
Lager Lovers (24%)
Enthusiasts (24%)
Ale Lovers (20%)
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 77: Best and worst case forecasts for the beer market, by value, 2013-18
Figure 78: Best and worst case forecasts for the beer market, by volume, 2013-18
Figure 79: Best and worst case forecasts for the lager market, by value, 2013-18
Figure 80: Best and worst case forecasts for the lager market, by volume, 2013-18
Figure 81: Forecast for volume sales of lager, 2008-18
Figure 82: Best and worst case forecasts for the ale market, by value, 2013-18
Figure 83: Best and worst case forecasts for the ale market, by volume, 2013-18
Figure 84: Forecast for volume sales of ale, 2008-18
Figure 85: Best and worst case forecasts for the stout market, by value, 2013-18
Figure 86: Best and worst case forecasts for the stout market, by volume, 2013-18
Figure 87: Forecast for volume sales of stout, 2008-18
APPENDIX – BRAND RESEARCH
Figure 88: Brand usage, October 2013
Figure 89: Brand commitment, October 2013
Figure 90: Brand momentum, October 2013
Figure 91: Brand diversity, October 2013
Figure 92: Brand satisfaction, October 2013
Figure 93: Brand attitude, October 2013
Figure 94: Brand image- macro image, October 2013
Figure 95: Brand image – micro image, October 2013
Figure 96: Profile of target groups, by demographics, October 2013
Figure 97: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, October 2013
Figure 98: Brand usage, by target groups, October 2013
Figure 99: Brand index, October 2013
APPENDIX – BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Figure 100: Top 20 brands advertising in the beer category in 2012, 2010-13
Figure 101: Top 10 advertisers, by media, 2010-13
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – USAGE OF BEERS
Figure 102: Usage of beer by type, September 2013
Figure 103: Beers drunk at home, by type, September 2013
Figure 104: Most popular types of beers drunk at home, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 105: Next most popular types of beers drunk at home, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 106: Beers drunk out of home by type, September 2013
Figure 107: Most popular types of beers drunk out of home, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 108: Next most popular types of beers drunk out of home, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 109: Non-usage of beers, September 2013
Figure 110: Non-usage of beers, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 111: Non-usage of beers, by demographics, September 2013 (continued)
Figure 112: Repertoire of usage of beers, by demographics, September 2013
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – FREQUENCY OF USAGE
Figure 113: Frequency of drinking beer, September 2013
Figure 114: Frequency of drinking beer, by demographics, September 2013
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – USAGE HABITS
Figure 115: Changes in beer drinking habits, September 2013
Figure 116: Changes in beer drinking habits, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 117: Changes in beer drinking habits, by most popular beers drunk in home, September 2013
Figure 118: Changes in beer drinking habits, by other beers drunk in home, September 2013
Figure 119: Changes in beer drinking habits, by most popular beers drunk out of home, September 2013
Figure 120: Changes in beer drinking habits, by other beers drunk out of home, September 2013
Reasons for drinking less beer
Figure 121: Reasons for drinking less beer than a year ago, September 2013
Figure 122: Reasons for drinking less beer than a year ago, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 123: Comparison of usage of different types of beer, by age, October 2012 and September 2013
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – PERCEPTIONS OF BEER
Figure 124: Perceptions of lager, September 2013
Figure 125: Most popular perceptions of lager, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 126: Perceptions of ale/bitter, September 2013
Figure 127: Most popular perceptions of ale/bitter, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 128: Perceptions of stout/porter, September 2013
Figure 129: Most popular perceptions of stout/porter, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 130: Perceptions of alcoholic ginger beer, September 2013
Figure 131: Most popular perceptions of alcoholic ginger beer, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 132: Perceptions of flavoured beer (fruit/spirits), September 2013
Figure 133: Most popular perceptions of flavoured beer, by demographics, September 2013
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – CHOICE FACTORS
Figure 134: Factors considered when buying beers, September 2013
Figure 135: Most popular factors considered when buying beers, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 136: Next most popular factors considered when buying beers, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 137: Other factors considered when buying beers, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 138: Factors considered when buying beers, by in-home usage, September 2013
Figure 139: Factors considered when buying beers, by in-home usage, September 2013 (continued)
Figure 140: Factors considered when buying beers, by out of home usage, September 2013
Figure 141: Factors considered when buying beers, by out of home usage, September 2013 (continued)
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS BEER
Figure 142: Users' attitudes towards beers, September 2013
Figure 143: Agreement with the statements ‘It is worth paying more for better quality beer’ and ‘I expect bottled beer to taste better than beer in cans’, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 144: Agreement with the statements ‘I expect lower-alcohol beers to not taste as good as standard strength varieties’ and ‘I prefer the taste of lighter beers over darker ones’, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 145: Agreement with the statements ‘Beer should be left ‘unflavoured’’ and ‘I am interested in multipacks of different types of beer’, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 146: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer to try many different beer brands rather than sticking to only one’ and ‘I prefer to drink a premium beer at a pub/bar rather than at home’, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 147: Agreement with the statements ‘Beers which have been made from the first harvest of hops are worth paying more for’ and ‘I am interested in beer with spice flavourings’, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 148: Agreement with the statements ‘Spirit beers appeal to me’ and ‘I am interested in trying beers produced by musicians/TV chefs’, by demographics, September 2013
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS CRAFT BEERS
Figure 149: Attitudes towards craft beers, September 2013
Figure 150: Agreement with the statements ‘Drinking regional/craft beers is a good way to support local producers’ and ‘I expect/would expect craft beers to taste better than non-craft beer’, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 151: Agreement with the statements ‘The use of the term ‘craft beer’ should be better regulated’ and ‘Craft beers would be more appealing if I knew more about them’, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 152: Agreement with the statements ‘The unique nature of craft beer appeals to me’ and ‘I would be interested in trying a craft-style beer from a large brewer’, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 153: Agreement with the statements ‘I am unsure what the term ‘craft beer’ means’ and ‘I think that UK craft beers are better than foreign ones’, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 154: Agreement with the statements ‘Craft beers should cost the same as mass-market beers’ and ‘Craft beers are worth paying more for’, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 155: Agreement with the statements ‘I am interested in craft beers which have unusual flavours/use unusual ingredients’ and ‘I am interested in being involved in helping to fund setting up a new craft beer’, by demographics, September 2013
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – TARGET GROUPS
Figure 156: Target groups, by demographics, September 2013
Figure 157: Usage of beers, by target groups, September 2013
Figure 158: Frequency of drinking beer, by target groups, September 2013
Figure 159: Drinking habits of beer, by target groups, September 2013
Figure 160: Perceptions of beers, by target groups, September 2013
Figure 161: Choice factors when buying beers, by target groups, September 2013
Figure 162: Users' attitudes towards beers, by target groups, September 2013
Figure 163: Attitudes towards craft beers, by target groups, September 2013

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