Author: Mintel Group Ltd.
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Chips, Popcorn, Nuts, and Dips - US - January 2014

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Overview
The market
Chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips category to reach $28.6 billion in 2018
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips, at current prices, 2008-18
Potato chips remain most popular, nuts and trail mix experience largest growth
Figure 2: Total US retail sales of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips, by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
Market factors
Increased snacking occasions, changing US demographics most influential
Key players
PepsiCo continues to dominate across snack segments
Figure 3: MULO sales of chips, nuts, popcorn, and dips, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013
The consumer
Potato chips most popular, healthier versions less appealing
Figure 4: Household snack purchases, top five, October-November 2013
Increased snacking occasions, health perceptions, largest purchase influences
Figure 5: Change in salty snack purchases – Amount purchased, October-November 2013
Price, packaging most important factors when purchasing
Figure 6: Important factors when purchasing salty snacks, Top five, October-November 2013
Natural, reduced claims most important
Figure 7: Important attributes when purchasing salty snacks, by gender, Top Five, October-November 2013
Attitudes related to health, brand strongest among consumers
Figure 8: Agreement with attitudes toward salty snacks, top five, October-November 2013
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
What will be the impact of increased snacking occasions?
Issues
Insight: Tailor snacks with packaging and nutritional attributes to meet consumer needs
Should manufacturers continue developing BFY snacks?
Issues
Insight: Consumers still want healthy and indulgent snack options
How will changing US demographics impact the category?
Issues
Insight: The increasing presence of ethnic groups will be key for innovation
TREND APPLICATIONS
Trend: Transumers
Trend: Minimize Me
Mintel Futures: Brand Intervention
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Recessionary resilience and sustainable growth
Sales and forecast of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips, at current prices, 2008-18
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-18
Fan chart forecast
Figure 11: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips, at current prices, 2008-18
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
All-day snacking trumps three-a-day meals
Changing US demographics will shake up the category
Diversified product lines improve health-related snack perceptions
Figure 12: Reason for purchasing more salty snacks, October-November 2013
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
A snacking mentality means everything’s a snack
Foodservice items heat up the snack competition
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Potato chips maintain their market share, nuts gain traction
Sales of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips, by segment
Figure 13: Total US retail sales of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips, by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
Potato chips continue to thrive but must innovate with alternate bases
Sales and forecast of potato chips
Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of potato chips at current prices, 2008-18
Slower tortilla chips growth likely from healthy snack competition
Sales and forecast of tortilla chips
Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortilla chips at current prices, 2008-18
RTE and bold, unique flavors popping up
Sales and forecast of popcorn
Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of popcorn at current prices, 2008-18
Snackers go nuts for nuts
Sales and forecast of nuts and trail mixes
Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts and trail mixes at current prices, 2008-18
Alternate bases to help boost dips segment
Sales and forecast of dips
Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of dips at current prices, 2008-18
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Supermarkets, other channels represent largest market share
Sales of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips, by channel
Figure 19: Sales of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips, by channel, 2011 and 2013
Volatile growth among grocery channels
Supermarket sales of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips
Figure 20: US supermarket sales of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips, at current prices, 2008-13
Greater drug store growth potential with dietary-based snacks
Drug store sales of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips
Figure 21: US drug store sales of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips, at current prices, 2008-13
Supercenters and convenience stores boost sales
Other retail channel sales of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips
Figure 22: US sales of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips, through other retail channels, at current prices, 2008-13
Retail Channels – Natural Supermarkets
Natural channel sales of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips, by segment
Figure 23: US natural channel sales of chips, popcorn, nuts, and dips, at current prices, 2011-13
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
Cross-category innovation allows PepsiCo to dominate
Nut manufacturers see largest sales gains
Manufacturer sales of chips, nuts, popcorn, and dips
Figure 24: MULO sales of chips, nuts, popcorn, and dips, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
BRAND SHARE – POTATO CHIPS
Key points
Minimal competition for PepsiCo brands
Manufacturer sales of potato chips
Figure 25: MULO sales of potato chips, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
BRAND SHARE – TORTILLA CHIPS
Key points
Tostitos, Doritos brands drive segment growth
Manufacturer sales of tortilla chips
Figure 26: MULO sales of tortilla chips, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
BRAND SHARE – POPCORN
Key points
ConAgra pops up convenience
Interest in RTE popcorn surges
Manufacturer sales of popcorn
Figure 27: MULO sales of popcorn, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
BRAND SHARE – NUTS AND TRAIL MIXES
Key points
Consumers go nuts for Kraft, private label
Manufacturer sales of nuts and trail mixes
Figure 28: MULO sales of snack nuts and trail mixes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
BRAND SHARE – DIPS
Key points
Cross-category dips help PepsiCo maintain its market share
Kraft sales dip downward
Manufacturer sales of dips
Figure 29: MULO sales of dips, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Nuts, corn snacks lead in new launches
Figure 30: Product launches, by subcategory, December 2012-October 2013
Figure 31: Number of product launches, by launch type, December 2012-October 2013
Frito-Lay, supermarket brands develop most new products
Figure 32: Product launches, by company (Top 10), December 2012-October 2013
Figure 33: Product launches, by private label, December 2012-October 2013
Health-based claims most common
Figure 34: Top 10 new product claims, December 2012-October 2013
New bases provide functional benefits
Traditional snack flavors most popular, ethnic flavors popping up
Figure 35: Top 10 flavors, by new products, December 2012-October 2013
Figure 36: Household potato chip flavor preferences, by age, May 2012-June 2013
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview of the brand landscape
Theme: Health
Nut ads downplay fat, highlight protein, fiber, and more
Figure 37: California Almonds Print Ad, June 2013
Figure 38: California Almond Board eStore, December 2013
Figure 39: California Almond Board Twitter Chat Promotion, December 2013
Figure 40: California Almonds YouTube Video, “Crunch On,” 2013
Popcorn, Indiana gets FIT
Figure 41: Popcorn, Indiana FIT Across America Tour in Dallas, Texas, July 2013
Theme: Flavor
Kettle Brand flavors span traditional to innovative
Figure 42: Kettle Brand Beer Pairing Guide, December 2013
Pringles offers a “tasty twist on tradition” with holiday flavors
Figure 43: Pringles Pecan Pie Print Ad, Dec. 6, 2013
Theme: Fun
Wonderful Pistachios gets by with a little help from its friends
Figure 44: Wonderful Pistachios YouTube Video, “Get Crackin’ with Dennis Rodman,” 2013
SOCIAL MEDIA – CHIPS, POPCORN, NUTS, AND DIPS
Key points
Key social media metrics
Figure 45: Key social media indicators, Dec. 2, 2013-Dec. 1, 2013
Market overview
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 46: Brand usage and awareness of chips, nuts, popcorn, and dips brands, November 2013
Interaction with brands
Figure 47: Interaction with chips, nuts, popcorn, and dips brands, November 2013
Online conversations
Figure 48: Lay’s discussion topics, Dec. 2, 2012-Dec. 1, 2013
Figure 49: Selected popchips Twitter mentions, June 12, 2013
Figure 50: Online mentions, selected chips, nuts, popcorn, and dips brands, Dec. 2, 2012-Dec. 1, 2013
Where are people talking about chips, popcorn, nuts, and dip brands?
Figure 51: Mentions by page type, selected chips, nuts, popcorn, and dip brands, Dec. 2, 2012-Dec. 1, 2013
What are people talking about online?
Figure 52: Mentions by topic of conversation, Dec. 2, 2012-Dec. 1, 2013
Brand analysis
Lay’s
Figure 53: Lay’s key social media indicators, November 2013
Tostitos
Figure 54: Tostitos key social media indicators, November 2013
popchips
Figure 55: popchips key social media indicators, November 2013
Planters
Figure 56: Planters key social media indicators, November 2013
Pop Secret
Figure 57: Pop Secret key social media indicators, November 2013
Emerald Nuts
Figure 58: Emerald Nuts key social media indicators, November 2013
HOUSEHOLD SNACK PURCHASES
Key points
Chips, nuts most purchased, healthier alternatives less popular
Figure 59: Household snack purchases October-November 2013
Younger consumers more likely to purchase a variety of snacks
Figure 60: Household snack purchases, by age, October-November 2013
Figure 61: Repertoire of household snack consumption, by age, October-November 2013
Households with children over index in salty snack purchases
Figure 62: Household snack purchases, by presence of children in household, October-November 2013
IMPORTANT FACTORS
Key points
Younger snackers seek flavor, variety
Figure 63: Important factors when purchasing salty snacks, by age, October-November 2013
Packaging, flavor important to households with children
Figure 64: Important factors when purchasing salty snacks, by presence of children in household, October-November 2013
IMPORTANT ATTRIBUTES
Key points
Healthy attributes less important to men
Figure 65: Important attributes when purchasing salty snacks, by gender, October-November 2013
Boomers most interested in slimming snack claims
Figure 66: Important attributes when purchasing salty snacks, by generations, October-November 2013
Snack fanatics attracted to natural, functional foods
Figure 67: Important attributes when purchasing salty snacks, by purchasing habits of salty snacks (eg chips, popcorn, nuts) and/or dips, October-November 2013
PURCHASE MOTIVATIONS
Key points
Millennials buy snacks for specific occasions
Figure 68: Reasons for purchasing salty snacks, by generations, October-November 2013
CHANGE IN PURCHASES
Key points
25-34s purchasing more salty snacks over past year, trading up
Figure 69: Change in salty snack purchases— Amount purchased, by age, October-November 2013
Figure 70: Change in salty snack purchases—Type purchased, by age, October-November 2013
Increased variety, snacking occasions boost purchases
Figure 71: Reason for purchasing more salty snacks, by generations, October-November 2013
Health biggest reason for fewer snack purchases
Figure 72: Reason for purchasing less salty snacks, October-November 2013
ATTITUDES TOWARD SALTY SNACKS
Key points
Snack enthusiasts more adventurous, price sensitive
Figure 73: Agreement with attitudes toward salty snacks, by purchasing habits of salty snacks (eg chips, popcorn, nuts) and/or dips, October-November 2013
RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Blacks more likely to have purchased BFY chips
Figure 74: Household snack purchases—Personal, by race/Hispanic origin, October-November 2013
Packaging, health claims more important to Hispanics
Figure 75: Important factors when purchasing salty snacks, by race/Hispanic origin, October-November 2013
Figure 76: Important attributes when purchasing salty snacks, by race/Hispanic origin, October-November 2013
Blacks purchase snacks for specific occasions
Figure 77: Reasons for purchasing salty snacks, by race/Hispanic origin, October-November 2013
Whites least likely to be purchasing more snacks this year
Figure 78: Change in salty snack purchases—Amount purchased, by race/Hispanic origin, October-November 2013
Figure 79: Change in salty snack purchases—Type purchased, by race/Hispanic origin, October-November 2013
Brand loyalty most important to Blacks
Figure 80: Agreement with attitudes toward salty snacks, by race/Hispanic origin, October-November 2013
APPENDIX – MARKET DRIVERS
Health and lifestyle
Figure 81: American adults by weight category as determined by body mass index (BMI), 2008-Oct. 28, 2013
Childhood and teen obesity – highest in decades
Figure 82: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
Consumer confidence
Figure 83: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
Unemployment
Figure 84: US Unemployment Rate, by month, 2002-13
Figure 85: US unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13
Figure 86: Number of employed civilians in US, in thousands, 2007-13
Retail channels
Figure 87: Distribution of expenditures on food for off-premise consumption, by channel, 2008-12
Racial, ethnic population growth
Figure 88: US population by race and Hispanic origin, 2009, 2014, and 2019
Figure 89: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
Shifting US demographics
Figure 90: US population, by age, 2009-19
Figure 91: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Figure 92: Household snack purchases, by race/Hispanic origin, October-November 2013
Figure 93: Household snack purchases—Personal, by generations, October-November 2013
Figure 94: Reasons for purchasing salty snacks, by purchasing habits of salty snacks (eg chips, popcorn, nuts) and/or dips, October-November 2013
Figure 95: Change in salty snack purchases—Amount purchased, by gender, October-November 2013
Figure 96: Change in salty snack purchases—Type purchased, by purchasing habits of salty snacks (eg chips, popcorn, nuts) and/or dips, October-November 2013
Figure 97: Agreement with attitudes toward salty snacks, by generations, October-November 2013
Figure 98: Household consumption of trail mix, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012-June 2013
Figure 99: Household consumption of nuts for cooking and snacks, by gender, May 2012-June 2013
Figure 100: Household consumption of nuts for cooking and snacks, May 2012-June 2013
Figure 101: Household consumption of nuts for cooking and snacks, May 2012-June 2013
Figure 102: Household consumption of potato chips, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012-June 2013
Figure 103: Household potato chip flavor preferences, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012-June 2013
Figure 104: Household consumption of potato chips, by age, May 2012-June 2013
Figure 105: Household consumption of potato chips, by presence of children in household, May 2012-June 2013
Figure 106: Household use of dips for snacks and vegetables, May 2012-June 2013
Figure 107: Household consumption of trail mix, by presence of children in household, May 2012-June 2013
Figure 108: Consumption of single-serve foods drinks—Snacks, May 2012-June 2013
Figure 109: Frequency of potato chip consumption, May 2012-June 2013
APPENDIX – SOCIAL MEDIA
Brand usage or awareness
Figure 110: Brand usage or awareness, November 2013
Figure 111: Lay’s usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 112: Tostitos usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 113: Planters usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 114: Emerald Nuts usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 115: popchips usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 116: Pop Secret usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
Activities done
Figure 117: Activities done, November 2013
Figure 118: Lay's – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 119: Lay's – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 120: Lay's – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 121: Lay's – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 122: Tostitos – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 123: Tostitos – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 124: Tostitos – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 125: Tostitos – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 126: Planters – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 127: Planters – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 128: Planters – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 129: Emerald Nuts – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 130: Emerald Nuts – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 131: popchips – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 132: popchips – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 133: Pop Secret – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
Figure 134: Pop Secret – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
Online conversations
Figure 135: Online mentions, selected chips, nuts, popcorn, and dips brands, Dec. 2, 2012-Dec. 1, 2013
Figure 136: Mentions by topic of conversation, Dec. 2, 2012-Dec. 1, 2013
Figure 137: Mentions by topic of conversation, Dec. 2, 2012-Dec. 1, 2013
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

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