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Buy-to-let Mortgages - UK - March 2014

INTRODUCTION
Product definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Buy-to-let gross lending up by 32% in 2013
Figure 1: Forecast of new buy-to-let mortgage advances – fan chart, 2008-18
Rental market continues to expand
Figure 2: Key market fundamentals, 2007, 2010 and 2013 (year-end)
New business lending is expected to grow at a solid pace over the next few years
Market factors
Strong demand for rental property in the UK
Market fundamentals
Regulation update
Company, brands and innovation
Leading lenders
Figure 3: Lenders’ share of the buy-to-let market, by balances outstanding, 2013
Greater product activity
Limited adspend due to dominance of intermediated sales
The consumer
One in twenty UK adults are landlords
Figure 4: Proportion of UK adults who let property, December 2013
Means of acquisition
Figure 5: How acquired rental property, December 2013
Buy-to-let borrowers favour interest-only
Buy-to-let investment intentions
Figure 6: Intentions regarding buy-to-let property investment, December 2013
What landlords think about investing in buy-to-let
House price predictions
Figure 7: Expected property price movement over the next 12 months, December 2013
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
Contraction in mainstream interest-only mortgages could see more landlords switching to buy-to-let deals
The facts
The implications
Good expansion potential
The facts
The implications
TREND APPLICATION
Target mortgage holders with buy-to-let promotions
Explore the viability of crowd-funding and co-ownership
Young people can use buy-to-let as a gateway into the property market
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Buy-to-let mortgage demand is relatively strong
Figure 8: Demand for buy-to-let and prime lending, 2009-13
Spreads on buy-to-let lending fell during the final three quarters of 2013
Figure 9: Spreads on buy-to-let lending – retrospective and forward-looking, 2009-13
Lenders continue to see decent margins on new lending
Figure 10: Bank of England base rate, three-month (monthly average) LIBOR and effective new mortgage rate, January 2007-December 2013
Housing market conditions improve
Rental demand and supply
Void periods, tenant defaults and loan arrears
Average value of rented property grew in 2013
Figure 11: Average value of rented houses versus rented flats, Q1 2008-Q4 2013
Geared investments offer better returns than cash buys
Figure 12: Average net annual compound rate of return over five years – geared versus cash purchase investment, Q1 2008-Q4 2013
Regional variation in geared-investment returns
Figure 13: Annual compound rates of return on buy-to-let investment over a five-year period – geared investments only, by region, Q4 2013
Landlord characteristics and behaviour
Recent regulatory and policy developments
UK HOUSING STOCK
Key points
The privately rented sector accounts for one in eight UK properties
Figure 14: UK Housing stock, by tenure, 1991-2012
The number of reluctant landlords appears to be on the wane
Buy-to-let mortgages are funding nearly one in three privately rented homes
Figure 15: Share of UK privately rented dwellings that are being purchased with a buy-to-let mortgage, 2002-12
Sharp drop in new private builds exacerbates housing shortage
Figure 16: Number of permanent dwellings completed, by tenure – UK, 2006/07-12/13
MARKET SWOT ANALYSIS
Figure 17: Buy-to-let mortgage market – strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, 2014
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Product availability increases
Competition hots up
New lender enters buy-to-let arena with a ‘unique’ proposition
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
There are now over 1.5 million buy-to-let loans outstanding
Figure 18: Number and value of buy-to-let mortgages outstanding, 2007-13 (year-end)
New buy-to-let advances grew strongly in 2013
Figure 19: Volume and value of new buy-to-let mortgages, 2007-13
The growth was driven by both remortgage and house-purchase activity
Mintel expects the market to continue to grow over the next five years
Figure 20: Forecast of new buy-to-let mortgage advances – fan chart, 2008-18
Figure 21: Forecast of the number of new buy-to-let mortgage sales – fan chart, 2008-18
Figure 22: Forecast of new buy-to-let mortgage business, 2008-18
Forecast methodology
Fan chart explanation
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Two lenders dominate the buy-to-let market
Figure 23: Buy-to-let amounts outstanding – selected lenders only, 2011-13
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Lloyds Banking Group
Figure 24: Key annual financial data for LBG, 2012-13
Nationwide and TMW
Figure 25: Key interim financial data for Nationwide, H1 2012 and H1 2013
Paragon
Figure 26: Key annual financial data for The Paragon Group, 2012 and 2013
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Overall mortgage adspend has increased over the past year
Figure 27: Total advertising expenditure on mortgage products, by sub-category, 2009-13
Limited buy-to-let advertising
Figure 28: Adspend on buy-to-let mortgages, by selected advertisers and media type, 2013
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
Intermediaries play a major role in the distribution of buy-to-let loans
Figure 29: Distribution channels used by selected buy-to-let lenders, February 2014
Intermediary share growing steadily in the wider mortgage market
Figure 30: Proportional distribution of regulated mortgage sales, by channel, 2007/08-2012/13
OWNERSHIP OF RENTAL PROPERTY
Key points
Survey background
One in 20 UK adults are landlords
Figure 31: Ownership of property which is let to tenants or holiday let, December 2013
A small proportion of tenants are also landlords
Figure 32: Ownership of property which is let to tenants or holiday let, by tenure, December 2013
Mortgage holders are more inclined to invest in buy-to-let
Buy-to-let landlords are typically ABC1s aged 45-64
Just under a third of landlords are aged 25-44
MEANS OF ACQUIRING RENTAL PROPERTY
Key points
Around one in seven inherited their rental property or holiday home
Figure 33: How acquired rental property, December 2013
A large minority initially bought their rental property with a standard residential mortgage
Figure 34: Type of mortgage used to buy rental property, December 2013
Interest-only is the most common type of buy-to-let loan
ATTITUDES AND INTENTIONS RELATING TO PROPERTY INVESTMENT
Key points
Many people have aspirations to become property investors
Figure 35: Attitudes and intentions regarding buy-to-let property investment, December 2013
One in seven landlords believe now is a good time to invest in buy-to-let
HOUSE PRICE PREDICTIONS
Key points
Most people expect house prices to grow in 2014
Figure 36: Expected property price movement over the next 12 months, December 2013
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Value forecast – best- and worst-case scenarios
Figure 37: Forecast of new buy-to-let advances – best- and worst-case scenarios, at current prices, 2013-18
Volume forecast – best- and worst-case scenarios
Figure 38: Forecast of the number of new buy-to-let mortgages – best- and worst-case scenarios, at current prices, 2013-18
APPENDIX – OWNERSHIP OF RENTAL PROPERTY BY DEMOGRAPHICS
Figure 39: Ownership of rental property, by demographics, December 2013
APPENDIX – ATTITUDES AND INTENTIONS REGARDING BUY-TO-LET INVESTMENT
Figure 40: Intentions regarding buy-to-let property investment, by demographics, December 2013
Figure 41: Attitudes regarding buy-to-let property investment, by demographics, December 2013
APPENDIX – PROFILE OF EXISTING LANDLORDS AND PROSPECTS
Figure 42: Demographic profile of total sample versus existing landlords and buy-to-let prospects, December 2013
APPENDIX – HOUSE PRICE PREDICTIONS
Figure 43: Expected property price movement over the next 12 months, by demographics, December 2013

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