Author: Mintel Group Ltd.
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Prepared Cakes and Pies - US - June 2014
Scope and Themes
 
What you need to know 
The $11.2 billion prepared cakes and pies category grew 24% from 2009-14, boosted by interest in the category during the economic recession, as well as the period surrounding the Hostess Brands bankruptcy in 2012. The category proved it could withstand hard economic times as an affordable indulgence. Despite a general trend toward healthier eating in the US, the category continues to grow. In general, consumers agree cakes and pies should only be eaten in moderation; however, many view the category positively in terms of taste and quality. Looking ahead, category growth will rely on manufacturers’ ability to meet consumer demands for better ingredients, great taste, and portability. Increased snacking and greater retail availability will also benefit the category.

This report provides analysis of these factors as well as in-depth examination of the following:

●	Prepared cakes and/or pies consumers have eaten in the past six months, and scratch baking versus baking mix usage
●	Prepared cakes and/or pies usage occasions by daypart and location
●	The most influential factors to increase consumer purchase frequency 
●	Purchase and usage behaviors 
●	The most important nutritional characteristics consumers consider when purchasing a variety of prepared cakes and/or pies
●	Consumers’ attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies
●	Innovation opportunities including flavors, such as local and ethnic flavors (eg dulce de leche), and formats, such as bite-sized or supersized 
●	How an increase in snacking occasions will impact the category and new product development, including individual portion sizes
●	How market factors, including health concerns and the US obesity epidemic, will influence new product development and reformulation

Definition 
This report builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s Prepared Cakes and Pies – US, August 2012 and the June 2011 report of the same title, as well as Cakes and Pies – US, December 2008 and the October 2007 report of the same title. It also builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s In-Store Bakeries – US, March 2013, as well as the August 2012, August 2010, August 2009, August 2008, and July 2007 reports of the same title.

This report covers the sales of RTE (ready-to-eat) cakes and pies. The following segments are included:

●	In-store baked cakes and pies
●	Shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies
●	Shelf-stable cakes and pies
●	Frozen/refrigerated cakes and pies

Due to limitations in the source data, sales estimates include some products that are outside the scope of this report, including brownies (in the shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies segment) and frozen desserts such as éclairs (in the frozen/refrigerated cakes/pies segment).

Cheesecake, and products generally considered breakfast foods, such as coffeecake, pastries, muffins, and doughnuts, are intentionally excluded to narrow the scope of the report. Products used in home baking, such as cake mixes and pie crusts, also are excluded but covered in Mintel’s Baking and Dessert Mixes – US, August 2013 and the upcoming Baking and Dessert Mixes – US, August 2014. Cookies and other types of baked desserts are not covered except as noted above.

This report covers only products prepared and offered for sale as is, or with only a minimal addition of decoration, such as personalization on sheet cake. Custom-ordered cakes and pies, such as wedding cakes, are outside the scope of this report.

Value figures throughout this report are at rsp (retail selling prices) excluding sales tax unless otherwise stated.

Data sources
Sales data
●	Market Size and Forecast: Total retail sales based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews; IDDBA, “What’s in Store 2013”; US Census Bureau, Economic Census; Progressive Grocer’s Consumer Expenditures Study
●	Segment Performance: Total retail sales based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews; IDDBA, “What’s in Store 2013”; US Census Bureau, Economic Census; Progressive Grocer’s Consumer Expenditures Study
●	Retail Channels: Based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews; IDDBA, “What’s in Store 2013”; US Census Bureau, Economic Census; Progressive Grocer’s Consumer Expenditures Study; except supermarket and drug store sales, which are based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews.
●	Leading Companies and Brand Share: Based on MULO sales data from Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews. MULO is defined as Multi Outlet, representative of the following channels: Total US Grocery, Mass, Total US Drug, Total Walmart, Dollar, Military, and Club. Note that the values shown in this section differ from the Market Size and Forecast and Segment Performance sections of this report. Companies and brands sales data encompass only sales through MULO channels, while market size/forecast and segment sales cover the entire retail market.

Consumer survey data
For the purposes of this report, Mintel commissioned exclusive consumer research through GMI to explore consumer consumption of/attitudes and behaviors toward prepared cakes and pies. Mintel was responsible for the survey design, data analysis, and reporting. Fieldwork was conducted in April 2014 among a sample of 2,000 adults aged 18+ with access to the internet.

Mintel selects survey respondents by gender, age, household income, and region so that they are proportionally representative of the US adult population using the internet. Mintel also slightly over-samples, relative to the population, respondents that are Hispanic or Black to ensure an adequate representation of these groups in our survey results and to allow for more precise parameter estimates from our reported findings. Please note that Mintel surveys are conducted online and in English only. Hispanics who are not online and/or do not speak English are not included in the survey results.

Mintel has also analyzed data from Experian Marketing Services, using the Simmons NCS (National Consumer Study), the Simmons NHCS (National Hispanic Consumer Study), the Simmons NCS Teen Study, and the Simmons NCS Kids Study.

The Experian Marketing Services, Simmons NCS/NHCS was carried out during November 2012-December 2013 and the results are based on the sample of 23,689 adults aged 18+, with results weighted to represent the US adult population. The Experian Marketing Services, Simmons NCS Teen Study was conducted during November 2012-December 2013 and based on a sample of 1,811 teenagers aged 12-17, with results weighted to represent the US teen population. The Experian Marketing Services, Simmons NCS Kids Study was conducted during November 2012-December 2013 and based on a sample of 2,061 kids aged 6-11, with results weighted to represent the US kid population.

While race and Hispanic origin are separate demographic characteristics, Mintel often compares them to each other. Please note that the responses for race (White, Black, Asian, Native American, or other race) will overlap those that also are Hispanic, because Hispanics can be of any race.

Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
The following is a list of abbreviations used in this report.

BFY | Better-for-you
CPI | Consumer Price Index
GNPD | Global New Products Database
LTO | Limited time only
MULO | Multi Outlet, representative of the following channels: Total US Grocery, Mass, Total US Drug, Total Walmart, Dollar, Military, and Club
NCS/NHCS | National Consumer Study/National Hispanic Consumer Study (Experian Marketing Services)
rsp | Retail selling price
RTE | Ready-to-eat

Generations are discussed within this report, and they are defined as: 

World War II/Swing generations | Members of the WWII generation were born in 1932 or before and are aged 82 or older in 2014. Members of the Swing Generation were born from 1933-1945 and are aged 69-81 in 2014.
Baby Boomers | The generation born between 1946 and 1964. In 2014, Baby Boomers are between the ages of 50 and 68.
Generation X | The generation born between 1965 and 1976. In 2014, Gen Xers are between the ages of 38 and 49.
Millennials * | Born between 1977 and 1994, Millennials are aged 20-37 in 2014.
iGeneration | Born between 1995 and 2007, members of iGen are aged 7-19 in 2014.
Emerging generation | The newest generation began in 2008 as the annual number of births declined sharply with the recession. In 2014 members of this as-yet-unnamed generation are younger than 7.

* also known as Generation Y or Echo Boomers

In order to provide an inflation-adjusted price value for markets, Mintel uses the CPI to deflate current prices. The CPI is defined as follows: 

CPI

The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.
The CPI and its components are typically used to adjust other economic series for price changes and to translate these series into inflation-free dollars. Examples of series adjusted by the CPI include retail sales, hourly and weekly earnings, and components of the national income and product accounts. In addition, and in Mintel reports, the CPI is used as a deflator of the value of the consumer’s dollar to find its purchasing power. The purchasing power of the consumer’s dollar measures the change in the value to the consumer of goods and services that a dollar will buy at different dates. 
The CPI is generally the best measure for adjusting payments to consumers when the intent is to allow consumers to purchase, at today’s prices, a market basket of goods and services equivalent to one that they could purchase in an earlier period. It is also the best measure to use to translate retail sales into real or inflation-free dollars.
Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics definition.

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