Seasonal Vacation Trends - US - June 2014
Scope and Themes
 
What you need to know 
The $221.8 billion market for vacations and tourism in the US is on the upswing, as consumers who had cut back on nonessential spending during the economic downturn decide that it’s time for a vacation again. Current economic indicators such as falling unemployment, gains in disposable income, and rising consumer sentiment all point to a rosy picture for the seasonal vacation industry in 2014-15. However, rising income inequality may threaten the market over the medium to long term, as fewer families can afford vacations. This report examines the role these economic trends will have on the seasonal vacation market, as well as the expected impact of the rapid growth in the population of seniors, who vacation at higher rates than younger adults.

Vacation travel is inherently seasonal, and this report explores how the demographic make-up of vacationers, as well as their behaviors, preferences, and the types of vacation taken, vary by season. For example, families drive the vacation market in all seasons, but especially in summer and winter. 

The report also provides in-depth analysis of:

●	Who are typical travel companions in each season
●	Who stays close to home and tends toward familiar destinations and who travels longer distances and craves variety
●	What marketers are doing and could do better to reach seasonal vacation consumers 
●	What’s new in the seasonal vacation market, including the gamification of travel and travel planning
●	How cutting-edge technologies such as mobile smart keys and augmented reality apps will literally transform how vacationers see the world

This is the first report Mintel has prepared on seasonal vacation trends. However, readers of this report may be interested in other travel titles in Mintel’s library, including: Frequent Travel Programs – US, August 2013, State Tourism – US, August 2013, Cruises – US, October 2013, and Casinos and Casino-style Gambling – US, June 2014. 

Definition
For the purposes of this report, Mintel has used the following definitions: 

●	Vacation is travel for leisure purposes that includes at least one overnight stay away from home. Business travel is excluded.
●	Seasons for vacation travel are defined as Summer (June-August), Fall (September-November), Winter (December-February), and Spring (March-May).

Value figures throughout this report are at rsp (retail selling prices) excluding sales tax unless otherwise stated.

Data sources
Sales data
Market Size and Forecast: based on Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Office of Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts

Consumer survey data
For the purposes of this report, Mintel commissioned exclusive consumer research through GMI to explore consumer attitudes and behaviors with regard to seasonal vacations. Mintel was responsible for the survey design, data analysis, and reporting. Fieldwork was conducted in March 2014 among a sample of 2,000 adults aged 18+ with access to the internet.

Mintel selects survey respondents by gender, age, household income, and region so that they are proportionally representative of the US adult population using the internet. Mintel also slightly over-samples, relative to the population, respondents that are Hispanic or Black to ensure an adequate representation of these groups in our survey results and to allow for more precise parameter estimates from our reported findings. Please note that our surveys are conducted online and in English only. Hispanics who are not online and/or do not speak English are not included in our survey results.

Mintel has also analyzed data from Experian Marketing Services, using the Simmons NHCS (National Hispanic Consumer Study), the Simmons NCS Teen Study, and the Simmons NCS Kids Study. 

The Experian Marketing Services, Simmons NHCS was carried out during November 2012-December 2013 and the results are based on the sample of 23,689 adults aged 18+, with results weighted to represent the US adult population. The Experian Marketing Services, Simmons NCS Teen Study was conducted during November 2012-December 2013 and based on a sample of 1,735 teenagers aged 12-17, with results weighted to represent the US teen population. The Experian Marketing Services, Simmons NCS Kids Study was conducted during November 2012-December 2013 and based on a sample of 2,029 kids aged 6-11, with results weighted to represent the US kid population. 

Additional data from Experian Marketing Services, Adults, Teens, and Kids is included for 2008-12.

Adults: 

●	Experian Marketing Services, Fall 2009 Simmons NHCS Adult Study 12-Month.
●	Experian Marketing Services, Fall 2010 Simmons NHCS Adult Study 12-Month.
●	Experian Marketing Services, Fall 2011 Simmons NHCS Adult Study 12-Month.
●	Experian Marketing Services, Fall 2012 Simmons NHCS Adult Study 12-Month.

Teens:

●	Experian Marketing Services, Fall 2009 Simmons NCS Teens Study 12-Month.
●	Experian Marketing Services, Fall 2010 Simmons NCS Teens Study 12-Month.
●	Experian Marketing Services, Fall 2011 Simmons NCS Teens Study 12-Month.
●	Experian Marketing Services, Fall 2012 Simmons NCS Teens Study 12-Month.

Kids:

●	Experian Marketing Services, Fall 2009 Simmons NCS Kids Study 12-Month.
●	Experian Marketing Services, Fall 2010 Simmons NCS Kids Study 12-Month.
●	Experian Marketing Services, Fall 2011 Simmons NCS Kids Study 12-Month.
●	Experian Marketing Services, Fall 2012 Simmons NCS Kids Study 12-Month.

While race and Hispanic origin are separate demographic characteristics, Mintel often compares them to each other. Please note that the responses for race (White, Black, Asian, Native American, or other race) will overlap those that also are Hispanic, because Hispanics can be of any race.

Direct marketing creative
All consumer direct mail marketing creatives are provided by Mintel Comperemedia. 

Mintel Comperemedia is a searchable competitive database tracking direct mail, print, and online advertising in the US and Canada, as well as email in the US. Comperemedia tracks information across nine sectors: Banking, Credit Card, Investments, Insurance, Mortgage and Loan, Telecom, Travel and Leisure, Retail, and Automotive.

For more information, please contact Account Services Management at 312.450.6353 or www.mintel.com.

Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
The following is a list of abbreviations used in this report: 

AR 	Augmented reality	
CPI 	Consumer Price Index	
DOT 	Department of Transportation	
NCS/NHCS 	National Consumer Study/National Hispanic Consumer Study (Experian Simmons)	
rsp 	Retail selling price	
SPG 	Starwood Preferred Guest	
TSI 	Traveler Sentiment Index	
USTA 	U.S. Travel Association	

Terms
Generations are discussed within this report, and they are defined as: 

World War II /Swing generation 	Members of the WWII generation were born in 1932 or before and are aged 82 or older in 2014. Members of the Swing Generation were born between 1933 and 1945 and are aged 69-81 in 2014.	
Baby Boomers 	The generation born between 1946 and 1964. In 2014, Baby Boomers are between the ages of 50 and 68.	
Generation X 	The generation born between 1965 and 1976. In 2014, Gen Xers are between the ages of 38 and 49.	
Millennials* 	The generation born between 1977 and 1994. In 2014, Millennials are between the ages of 20 and 37.	
iGeneration 	The generation born between 1995 and 2007. In 2014, iGens are between the ages of 7 and 19.	
Emerging generation 	The newest generation began in 2008 as the annual number of births declined sharply with the recession. In 2014 members of this as-yet-unnamed generation are younger than 7.	

* also known as Generation Y or Echo Boomers

In order to provide an inflation-adjusted price value for markets, Mintel uses the CPI to deflate current prices. The CPI is defined as follows: 

CPI 	The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

The CPI and its components are typically used to adjust other economic series for price changes and to translate these series into inflation-free dollars. Examples of series adjusted by the CPI include retail sales, hourly and weekly earnings, and components of the national income and product accounts. In addition, and in Mintel reports, the CPI is used as a deflator of the value of the consumer’s dollar to find its purchasing power. The purchasing power of the consumer’s dollar measures the change in the value to the consumer of goods and services that a dollar will buy at different dates. 

The CPI is generally the best measure for adjusting payments to consumers when the intent is to allow consumers to purchase, at today’s prices, a market basket of goods and services equivalent to one that they could purchase in an earlier period. It is also the best measure to use to translate retail sales into real or inflation-free dollars.

Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics definition.