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UK Retail Briefing - September 2016

ANALYST COMMENT
Retail sales in the first half
Food retailers
Food retailers in the second half
Clothing retailing
Not just online
Where next for clothing retailers?
Department stores
Other stores
Online
Black Friday
Brexit
The second half and Christmas 2016
RETAIL SALES – BACKGROUND AND OUTLOOK
Key points
Retail sales
Figure 1: Retail sales trends, 2015/16
Figure 2: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS August 2014- August 2016
Mintel’s financial confidence tracker
Figure 3: Trends in consumer sentiment for the coming year, Jan 2015 – Aug 2016
John Lewis
Figure 4: John Lewis: Year-on-year growth, May 2015-August 2016
Inflation and wages
Figure 5: Real wages growth: Wages growth vs inflation, 2011-16
Inflation
Figure 6: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2015-16
Looking forward
SECTOR FOCUS
Specialists suffering…
Figure 7: Annual % change in clothing retail sales, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, Jan-2015-Aug 2016
…but spending is up
Figure 8: Consumer spending on clothing, at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, Q1 2013 – Q1 2016
The underperformance of the market leading specialists
Figure 9: Estimated leading clothing specialists as a % of all consumer spending on clothing, 2014
Online-only players
Figure 10: Estimated market shares of online sales of clothing and footwear, 2014
The failure of BHS and Austin Reed
Supermarkets
Figure 11: Estimated leading grocery retailers share of all consumer spending on clothing and footwear, 2014
Department stores
The weather
Final thoughts
HEADLINES FOR THE MONTH
Grocers
Multi-sector retailing
DIY retailing
Home shopping
Sports and leisure goods retailing
Economy
NEWS ANALYSIS – FOOD AND DRINK
 CONVENIENCE STORES
UK: McColl’s like-for-like sales fall 1.8%
UK: Premier reaches 3,300 stores
 GROCERS
UK: Asda
…full-year sales decline 3.7%
…offloads photo division
… Q2 like-for-like sales tumble 7.5%
UK: Morrisons
…completes sale of Fresh Direct stake
…head office staff sent to help with heatwave rush in stores
UK: Sainbury's
…launches Tu Premium range
…reveals Mini Habitat concession plans
…trials 'slow shopping' scheme
UK: Sicilian supermarket opens first shop in London
UK: Supermarket quarterly sales fall below £100bn
UK: Tesco
…ramps up online offer with same-day click-and-collect
…rolls out Scan as you Shop service
…trials 24-hour stores as night tube launches
 OTHER FOOD SPECIALISTS
UK: West Cornwall Pasty Co like-for-like sales rise 7.6%
UK: Whittard delivers 'solid progress' in 2015
NEWS ANALYSIS – NON-FOOD
 CLOTHING RETAILING
UK: Bhs
…international owner may revive the chain in the UK
…international owners purchase customer details
UK: French Connection eyed by Maplin owner
UK: H&M
…expands Cos and Monki into Bristol
…considers standalone menswear stores
UK: Hunkemöller launches UK website
UK: Joules profits surge as a listed company
UK: Jimmy Choo revenues grow 7.1%
UK: Lavitta expands to 10 stores
UK: Mamas and Papas opens new small format shop
UK: Monsoon Accessorize to shutter 141 dual-branded stores
UK: Oasis opens first market town store
UK: Pep&Co reveals ambitious expansion plans
UK: River Island to partner with Snapchat
UK: Scarlett & Jo seeks investor funding
UK: Suitsupply launches digital styling service
UK: TJX Europe reports slower than anticipated UK sales
UK: Topshop unveils see now, buy now runway initiative
 MULTI-SECTOR RETAILING
UK: B&M ramps up garden centre expansion
UK: Marks and Spencer
…boss considers scaling back international stores
…confirms 525 job cuts
UK: Mothercare launches upgraded website
UK: Poundland shareholders approve takeover by Steinhoff
UK: Steinhoff and Poundland announce final revised offer
UK: Wilko poaches Argos retail director as London expansion ramps up
 DEPARTMENT STORES
UK: Fenwick to open in Colchester following £35m redevelopment
UK: John Lewis
…invests £9m in beauty offer
…outlines fashion and beauty focus for first Essex store
…supports suppliers with 'Made Locally' scheme
 DIY RETAILING
UK: Homebase sales rise 7.5% under Wesfarmers ownership
UK: Kingfisher's UK division drives growth
 ELECTRICAL RETAILING
UK: Brighthouse revenues increase 1.7%
UK: Dixons Carphone like-for like revenues rise 4%
 FURNITURE RETAILING
UK: DFS continues strong performance in the second half
UK: Dwell to open new concept store
UK: IKEA opens Order & Collection store in Westfield
UK: Mattress brand Casper launches in the UK
 HOMEWARES RETAILING
UK: Cath Kidston set to launch in Latin America
UK: Laura Ashley like-for-like sales rise 4.1%
 HOME SHOPPING
UK: Amazon
…launches one-hour restaurant delivery service
…rolls out Dash button in the UK and Germany
…to create 500 jobs with new distribution centre
UK: Asos launches plus-size menswear
UK: eBay launches hub for plus-size fashion
UK: Farfetch surprises millionth customer with free order
UK: Findel approaches Terry Duddy for chairmanship
UK: Gear4music sales surge 73%
UK: Hello Fresh hosts cook-a-long events
UK: Notonthehighstreet secures £21m investment
UK: Ocado unveils 'Organic Kitchen' campaign
UK: PrettyLittleThing partners with Doddle
UK: Shop Direct delivers 43.6% profit growth as investment pays off
 HEALTH & BEAUTY RETAILING
UK: Lloyds rebrands Sainsbury's in-store pharmacies
UK: The Body Shop expands into Chile
UK: The Fragrance Shop offers one hour delivery
 BOOK AND STATIONERY RETAILING
UK: Card Factory sales grow 4.8%
UK: WH Smith performs in line with expectations
 SPORTS AND LEISURE GOODS RETAILING
UK: Evans Cycles' chief departs after profit slump
UK: Halfords retail revenues grow 4.8%
UK: JD Sports
…eyes Go Outdoors acquisition
…secures second Oxford Street store
UK: Mountain Warehouse launches childrenswear for Zakti
UK: Sports Direct changes zero-hours contract practises
 JEWELLERS
UK: Boutique.Goldsmiths hosts Olivia Burton embossing stations
 TOYS AND GAMES RETAILING
UK: Hawkins Bazaar outlines five-year expansion plan
UK: The Toy Store eyes new UK stores despite Oxford Street closure
 ECONOMY
UK: Retail footfall dips 0.4% in July
UK: Retail sales rise 3.6% in July
UK: Retail sales slow in August amid Olympics hype
UK: SaveTheHighStreet.org launches to 'revive' the high street
UK: Shop vacancies rise above 10%
UK: Worldpay finds 'seismic' shift in consumer payment preferences

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