Trendscape
Trend Observation - Biking Takes the Lead
Trend - Retired for Hire
What's Next - On the Go Remedies
Expert Blog - The Summer of Discontent



Mintel Inspire allows you to explore trends through an interactive trend map - Trendscape.
Trendscape easily demonstrates how different trends are connected, allowing you to step beyond category limitations to understand the broader context of people's behaviour.
According to Transport for London, bikes now outnumber cars during rush hour in some parts of London.
In 2010, cyclists made up 35.5% of northbound traffic crossing Blackfriars Bridge, while cars and taxis accounted for 31.9%.
Between 2010 and 2011 the number of trips made by bicycle grew by 15%. This is an increase of 150% since 2000.
Two wheels are better than four
In part thanks to the Barclays Bike Scheme (where urbanites can hire bikes for short-distance travel), cycling has become a much more popular way to travel around London
But aside from being convenient, it's also providing commuters with a quicker method of transport (see Faster on Two Wheels). Indeed, Mintel’s Bicycles UK June 2010 report has found that 38% of people think that cycling is a good way to help reduce road congestion.
As urbanisation continues to grow, we may see city centre planning take pedestrians and cyclists into greater consideration (see Backbone Bikeway Network).
To cater to this growing interest, there's the potential for other cities to follow in London's lead and launch their own bike-hire or bike-share schemes (see Pedal Partners).
There’s also room for more mobile services that cater to these cyclists, from vending concepts (see Open for Repairs) to methods of storage within the city (see My Bike Just Hangs Out).
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What's It About?
Seniors are working beyond retirement for both money and pleasure.
What We've Seen
Turning 65 no longer means trading in the office keys for a set of golf clubs. Increasingly, seniors are opting to delay retirement and stay in the workforce – because they want to, because they have to, or a bit of both.
Truthfully, many seniors, or soon-to-be-seniors, have no other option but to stay in the workforce past traditional retirement age. Why? Because many don’t have adequate retirement savings, especially in light of slimmed-down government subsidies. Add to that the likelihood that someone – namely, children or grandchildren – is still financially depending on them, and the reality is many older consumers simply can’t afford not to work.
But this isn’t just about being forced to stay in the workforce. Many seniors say they prefer to keep working. Our "Agelessness" trend notes how society as a whole is less bound by age-related expectations, and for older consumers, that means bucking the belief that getting grey means losing one’s vitality or ‘edge’.
Seniors are becoming the dominant demographic in Western society, and as they continue to work – and earn, and spend – they will become an increasingly influential and demanding segment of society.
Specifics
The sheer volume of seniors and soon-to-be-seniors is staggering.
- According to the UN, the global proportion of over-60s will double to 22% by 2050.
- By 2050, one in five Americans will be over 65, according to the UN—which is actually quite young compared to the one in four predicted in the UK, and staggering one in three in Japan.
- According to the Office for National Statistics, by 2020 there will be 12.6 million over-65s in the UK.
- While Latin America as a whole is not aging as rapidly as North America and Europe, there will still be plenty of viejos (older consumers) across the region. Cepal (Economic Commission for Latin America) estimates the over-60s population across Latin America will top 100 million in 2025.
But this trend is about more than just numbers. It’s about a seismic shift in what seniorhood looks like, particularly when it comes to retirement (or lack thereof).
Changes to the state retirement age, a lack of financial provision and a desire to stay young will compel seniors to keep working and it's already happening:
- US magazine AARP (American Association of Retired Persons) claims that half of its 40 million members are still working.
- According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in the US, the number of working seniors has nearly doubled since 1990 to reach a labor force participation rate of 7.5% in 2011 (see Working Seniors).
- According to the UK’s National Childhood Development Study in 2010, some 77% of over-55s will stay in the workforce past retirement age (amounting to 13.5 million people).
- According to the Pensions Trends study from the Office for National Statistics, one in eight British women and one in 10 British men are already working into their seventies (see Retirement Revolution).
- In July 2010, the European Commission recommended that European workers not be allowed to retire before 70 in response to the ongoing pension crisis.
- Accordingly, France will raise its retirement age from 60 to 62 in 2018.
- The Korean government is raising the retirement age to 60 for public sector jobs, and the Seoul Metropolitan government is supporting retired people wishing to return to the workplace with "silver job fairs.” The country's Lotte Mart brand is doing its bit by hiring 1,000 senior workers (see Silver Workers) and in the UK we've seen DIY retailer B&Q utilise the avuncular expertise of a senior workforce to great effect.
The reason for many is that they’ve failed to prepare.
- Mintel’s Alternative Retirement Strategies UK September 2011 report shows that 20% of non retirees say they “expect to carry on working beyond the state pension age”.
- Mintel’s Personal and Stakeholder Pensions UK March 2011 report shows that just 6% of non-retired over-55s are “absolutely certain” they’ll have enough for a comfortable retirement.
- According to Mintel’s Retirement Planning US October 2011 report, nearly a third of both over-65s (31%) and 55-64-year-olds (30%) have absolutely no type of retirement savings account.
- According to Mintel’s Marketing Financial Services to Millennials US May 2012 report, 32% of 55-64s believe they probably won’t be able to afford to retire completely.
This isn’t all about a lack of provision, however. Some people simply prefer to keep working.
- Pew’s 2010 Social & Demographic Trends project finds that a majority (54%) of American workers aged 65 and older say the main reason they work is that they want to.
- 68% stated that they continue working past retirement age due to a desire to feel useful and productive, while 56% say it’s to be around other people.
But despite willingness—and often a financial necessity—to remain in the workforce, unemployment poses a massive problem for the over-50s.
- In the US unemployment for Americans aged 55+ has grown 331% over the past decade according to the AARP Public Policy Institute.
- Some are even taking extreme measures to boost their workplace marketability. The American Society of Plastic Surgeons (ASPS) claims a 5% rise in the number of people undertaking cosmetic plastic surgery in the US in 2010 was due in large part to increased business amongst male over-55s who are concerned about keeping their jobs (see Facelifts for Job Seekers).
Implications
Brands and manufacturers will have an opportunity to help preserve and maintain the lifestyles of an ageing workforce, vulnerable to the rigours of the high-speed “HYPR/FSTR” world and the attendant “Totophobia”.
Product qualities like vitality, energy, nurture and longevity will need to be instilled into food, drink and personal care products as ageing employees seek to continue looking good and keeping their energy up.
An older workforce may be an opportunity to create brand trust and an avuncular image of expertise. This has been the ethos behind UK retailer B&Q’s promotion of senior staff willing to teach technology-softened young consumers life skills, as well as American airline JetBlue’s hiring of retired NYPD and FDNY officers.
Retailers should rejoice at the appearance of an ageing demographic willing to keep earning and spending, but they will need to court them and canvass their opinion through social media, just as they have done with mothers through online community forums like Mumsnet.
It’s a mistake to assume this demographic isn’t online: Among the over-50s, social media use has almost doubled between April 2009 (22%) and May 2010 (42%) (see Savvy Seniors Embrace Social Media). An even bigger mistake is to ignore them outright: Our Media Consumption Amongst Over-55s UK August 2010 report found 41% of over-55s agreeing that “most advertising and marketing isn’t relevant to people in my age group”, compared to 30% of the population overall.
Seniors may be the true ‘sleeping dragons’ of the economy – and marketers should start paying them more attention.
Key Action Items
- This is a new, previously neglected demographic of active, net-savvy workers to target.
- Employers can leverage seniors' expertise to appeal to elder peers and young consumers alike.
- Some traditional senior markets—like extended holidays—are diminished. A ‘burn out’ factor needs to be addressed through care products and support.
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17% of consumers buy OTC pain and cold/flu remedies that are easy to take anywhere, whereas almost one in ten look for products that have packaging which enables ease of carrying without products becoming damaged.
Under-25s are the most interested in portable OTC remedies. Such groups tend to lead busy social lives, hence their interest in products which are not only easy to take whilst out and about, but are also easy to carry around.
A quarter of under-25s purchase OTC cold and flu remedies in a liquid format. This means they are also likely to be interested in painkillers and cough medicines in single-serve liquid sachets, similar to the packaging used by yogurt manufacturer, Yoplait, for its Frubes brand. This type of packaging would appeal to younger consumers and cater to their busy on-the-go lifestyles, avoiding the need to carry bottles of liquid medicine around.
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Social networking and 24-hour news have celebrated – some have argued facilitated – the 'Arab Spring'. However, these media have also crushed traveller confidence in the region, drawing some drastic responses from countries like Tunisia as a result.
Fear.com
Social networks and blogs have been championed as voices of dissent and documentary evidence for marches towards democracy. Twitter can still provide frothy entertainment (see Twittering TVeets) but it is also now synonymous with the fundamental extremes of our “Eye on Government” trend (see Iranian Protest Puts Twitter in New Light). Vodafone went so far as to try to depict revolution as an extension of its Our Power campaign – to the ire of many Egyptians.
Their dismay and disappointment will be shared by Egypt’s tourism industry. Every tweet, blog, campaign and streamed digital clip – however well intentioned – is chipping away at consumer confidence and contributing to the mood of “Totophobia”.
Online research is clearly entrenched in travel. For evidence, Mintel’s Holiday Booking Process UK March 2010 report shows that 40% of consumers look at reviews online and 37% browse for package deals online.
The internet has been a friend to tourism, demystifying destinations, offering bargains and reassurance in equal measure, but it can also be a foe. Exposure to rolling news and our constant connectivity to digital bulletins can quickly tar entire nations and regions with the same brush of fear.
Losers and winners
Egypt has been tourism’s rising star over the past decade, but the state CAPMAS statistics agency announced that numbers of tourists visiting the country dropped 36% in April against the previous year. In the three months prior to that numbers fell by a total of 46%.
In Tunisia the National Tourist Office expects visitor arrivals to fall 50% in 2010.
Lebanon is also suffering as tourists fret about conflict in neighbouring Syria. The country’s Tourism Ministry estimates that visitor numbers have fallen by 14% in the first four months of 2011, whilst Ernst & Young’s hotel benchmark survey reveals that occupancy in Beirut fell from 72% to 50% in the same period.
The chief beneficiary of this fear has been Dubai, where hotel occupancy is 35% higher than in Lebanon, according to Ernst & Young. A recent MasterCard study projects tourist arrivals in Dubai to approach the 8 million mark in 2011. Dubai is the safe option, feeling both familiar and highly Westernised.
For Lebanon’s Tourism Minister Fadi Abboud, it represents a rejection of authenticity and heritage:
“Comparing Dubai to Beirut is like comparing Las Vegas to Rome. You can ski in Dubai in a warehouse, but you ski in this country on 3,000ft high mountains.”
In travel terms this suggests a battle between “The Real Thing” and “Fauxthenticity”, with the latter being the safe bet and the clear winner.
Fighting to Maintain Face
Some of the responses from beleaguered tourism destinations have been fairly radical.
Memac Ogilvy’s campaign for Tunisia has confronted the legacy of an uprising that cost the lives of around 300 people head on. One billboard and bus campaign shows a woman being massaged with the slogan "They say that in Tunisia some people receive heavy-handed treatment". Another depicts Roman ruins alongside the slogan "They say Tunisia is nothing but ruins".
These images have been criticised for their alleged poor taste in some quarters. However, in the moral debate, what’s most important: Offending bloggers or stimulating an industry that brought $2.55 billion of tourist spending to Tunisia and its people in 2010?
There have been attempts by Egypt to redress the social media balance by harnessing Facebook as a positive PR piece, offering solidarity and reassurance for would-be travellers through its Support Freedom, Visit Egypt campaign.
Social media and virtual travel tools like Google’s Art Project (see Art for All) and Google Russia’s Trans Siberian Express trip (see Virtual Versus Real Tourism) suggest how everything from live webcams to video testimonials from local people and tourists alike might be utilised as a means of harnessing positive, reassuring digital PR.
The New Culture Vultures
As a footnote to this discussion of traveller fear, it’s worth noting that consumers are keen students of the economic opportunities presented by the misfortunes of others. Greece is in economic meltdown and wracked by debt and public disorder, but as a travel destination, it’s going cheap and business is booming as a result. North Africa’s loss has been Greece’s gain and the government expects arrivals to grow 10% in 2011.
The government’s austerity measures have extended to the travel industry, slashing ferry ticket prices, waiving landing fees at airports and halving VAT on tourist accommodation. Visa restrictions have also been lifted for non-EU citizens.
Ten years after 9/11 fear has not been eradicated in tourism and greater levels of connectivity may have tested, rather than calmed, our nerves. However, the experiences and reactions of travel destinations in North Africa and Greece show that even fear has its price and that brave destinations like Tunisia can fight fire with fire.
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