Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- U.S. retail bread market reaches new high in 2011
- New food guidelines and economic factors may impact bread consumption
- Bread market is facing competition on a variety of fronts
- Loaf bread leads in sales, but rolls/buns/croissants leads in growth
- Supermarkets lead overall but “other” retailers gaining share
- BFY attributes and store brands are focus of innovations
- Bread marketers have yet to embrace social media in a big way
- The bread products consumer
Insights and Opportunities
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- Capitalize with global and BFY bread offerings
- Develop cross-promotions with sister brands
- Branded bread stores
- Introduce flavor-based tortilla shells
Inspire Insights
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- Trend: A Simple Balance for Health
- Trend: Premiumization and Indulgence
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Bread market reaches new high in 2011
- Sales and forecast of bread
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- Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, at current prices, 2006-16
- Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 3: Fan chart forecast of bread, 2006-16
- Walmart sales
Market Drivers
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- New food pyramid encourages whole grain consumption
- Restaurant index continues decline making for more at-home eating
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- Figure 4: National Restaurant Association RPI
- Projected race/ethnicity growth creates larger target audience
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- Figure 5: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
- Households with children in decline
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- Figure 6: Households, by presence of children, 2000-10
- Bread prices rising during challenging economic times
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- Figure 7: Real disposable personal income, January 2000-Aug. 1, 2011
- Figure 8: University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment, January 2007-August 2011
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Private label casts a large shadow over bread market
- Grupo Bimbo solidifies its presence with Sara Lee acquisition
- ISBs growing in number and weekly sales
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- Figure 9: Number of ISBs and average weekly sales per store*, 2006-11
- Casual restaurants may be luring bread consumers
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Weak performance by larger segment restrains category growth
- Sales of bread 2009-11
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- Figure 10: FDMx sales of bread, by segment, 2009-11
- Figure 11: FDMx volume* sales of bread, by segment, 2006-11
- Sales and forecast in FDMx
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- Figure 12: Sales of bread in FDMx, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Fresh Loaf Bread
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- Key points
- Fresh loaf bread 2011 sales flat
- Sales and forecast of fresh loaf bread
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- Figure 13: FDMx sales of fresh loaf bread, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Fresh Rolls, Buns and Croissants
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- Key points
- Segment continues its growth trajectory albeit at slower pace
- Sales and forecast of fresh rolls, buns and croissants
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- Figure 14: FDMx sales and forecast of fresh rolls, buns and croissants, at current prices, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Tortillas
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- Key points
- Tortilla sales flat in 2011
- Sales and forecast of tortillas
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- Figure 15: FDMx sales and forecast of tortillas, at current prices, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Fresh Bagels, Bialys and English Muffins
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- Key points
- Segment posts new sales high in 2011
- Sales and forecast of fresh bagels, bialys and English muffins
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- Figure 16: FDMx sales and forecast of fresh bagels, bialys and English muffins, at current prices, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Refrigerated/Frozen Bread, Bagels, Bialys and English Muffins
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- Key points
- Sales grow in 2011 but are at 2008 levels
- Sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen bread, bagels, bialys and English muffins
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- Figure 17: FDMx sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen bread, bagels, bialys and English muffins, at current prices, 2006-16
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarket bread sales growing stale
- Mass merchandisers and drug stores well-positioned for growth
- Sales of bread, by channel
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- Figure 18: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, by channel, 2009 and 2011
- Figure 19: Supermarket/food store sales of bread, at current prices, 2006-11
- Figure 20: Other retailer sales of bread, at current prices, 2006-11
Retail Channels—Natural Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Insights
- Sales of bread in the natural channel
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- Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of bread, at current prices, 2009-11
- Figure 22: Natural supermarket sales of bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-11
- Natural channel sales by segment
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- Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of bread, by segment, 2009 and 2011
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- Figure 24: Natural supermarket sales of bread, by organic content, 2009 and 2011
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- Figure 25: Natural supermarket sales of bread, by gluten-free content, 2009 and 2011
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Private label has largest share but minimal growth
- Grupo Bimbo continues acquisition strategy
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- Figure 26: Manufacturer FDMx sales of bread in the U.S., 2010 and 2011
Brand Share—Fresh Loaf Bread
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- Key points
- Private labels leading fresh loaf bread
- Some BFY brands could use a healthy sales boost
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- Figure 27: Selected FDMx brand sales of fresh loaf bread, 2010 and 2011
Brand Share—Fresh Rolls, Buns, and Croissants
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- Key points
- Private label rolls to top of segment
- Ball Park may be a hit
- Consumer interest in “thin” breads may be waning
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- Figure 28: Selected FDMx brand sales of fresh rolls, buns and croissants, 2010 and 2011
Brand Share—Tortillas
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- Key points
- Gruma S.A.’s diverse product portfolio helps it appeal to more consumers
- Olé Mexican Foods benefits from consumers’ interest in authentic products
- Private label unable to turn bad economy into better sales
- General Mills’ innovation eating into core brand’s sales
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- Figure 29: Selected FDMx brand sales of tortillas, 2010 and 2011
Brand Share—Fresh Bagels, Bialys and English Muffins
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- Key points
- Grupo Bimbo dominates segment and will soon get even bigger
- Limited manufacturer activity may hinder innovation
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- Figure 30: Selected FDMx brand sales of fresh bagels, bialys and English muffins, 2010 and 2011
Brand Share—Refrigerated/Frozen Bread, Bagels, Bialys and English Muffins
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- Key points
- T. Marzetti’s larger brands lift its overall sales
- Private label growth exceeds all name brand manufacturers
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- Figure 31: Selected FDMx brand sales of refrigerated/frozen Bread, Bagels, Bialys and English Muffins, 2010 and 2011
Innovations and Innovators
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- Key points
- Bread product launches provide healthy perspective
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- Figure 32: Bread product launches, by top claims, 2006-11
- Private label’s bread launches keep category fresh
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- Figure 33: Private label share of bread product launches, 2006-11
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- Figure 34: Leading companies and brands, by bread product launches, 2006-11
- Product innovations
- Private label
- Cultural/international
- BFY
Marketing Strategies
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- Key points
- Bimbo partners with celebrity nutritionist to help consumers achieve goals
- Social media not a major part of bread brands’ marketing mix
- Highland Baking’s D.C. Sarnies used as research kitchen
- TV advertising
- Pepperidge Farm Goldfish Sandwich Bread
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- Figure 35: Pepperidge Farm/Goldfish Bread, July 2011
- Bimbo Soft White Bread
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- Figure 36: Bimbo/Soft White Bread, March 2011
- Pillsbury Crescent Rolls
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- Figure 37: Pillsbury/crescent rolls, November 2010
Household Usage
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- Key points
- Bread products likely to be found in nearly every U.S. household
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- Figure 38: Household bread usage, August 2011
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- Figure 39: Personal bread usage, by age, August 2011
- Figure 40: Personal bread usage, by household income, August 2011
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- Figure 41: Personal bread usage, by presence of children in household, August 2011
- Experian Simmons
- Bread
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- Figure 42: Household bread usage, by age, February 2010-March 2011
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- Figure 43: Household bread usage, by household income, February 2010-March 2011
- Bagels
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- Figure 44: Household bagel usage, by age, February 2010-March 2011
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- Figure 45: Household bagel usage, by household income, February 2010-March 2011
What Matters To Bread Consumers
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- Key points
- Attributes and positioning that matter to bread buyers
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- Figure 46: Attributes and positioning that matter most, by gender, August 2011
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- Figure 47: Attributes and positioning that matter most, by age, August 2011
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- Figure 48: Attributes and positioning that matter most, by household income, August 2011
- Other factors that matter to bread buyers
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- Figure 49: Other factors that matter, by age, August 2011
Preferences and Purchase Behavior
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- Key points
- Bread buyers show a willingness to try new products
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- Figure 50: Preferences and purchase behavior, by gender, August 2011
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- Figure 51: Preferences and purchase behavior, by age, August 2011
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- Figure 52: Preferences and purchase behavior, by household income, August 2011
- Figure 53: Preferences and purchase behavior, by presence of children in household, August 2011
Eating and Buying Habits
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- Key points
- Price rises in importance for bread buyers
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- Figure 54: Eating and buying habits of bread products in last year, by age, August 2011
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- Figure 55: Eating and buying habits of bread products in last year, by household income, August 2011
- Figure 56: Eating and buying habits of bread products in last year, by presence of children in household, August 2011
Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Bread’s popularity extends to all races/ethnicities
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- Figure 57: Personal bread usage, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2011
- Figure 58: Household bread usage, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2010-March 2011
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- Figure 59: Household bagel usage, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2010-March 2011
- Figure 60: Household usage of tortillas, taco shells, and tostadas, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2010-March 2011
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- Figure 61: Attributes and positioning that matter most, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2011
- Figure 62: Preferences and purchase behavior, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2011
Custom Consumer Groups
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- Key points
- Personal bread usage
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- Figure 63: Personal bread usage, by gender and age, August 2011
- Attributes and positioning that matter
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- Figure 64: Attributes and positioning that matter most, by gender and age, August 2011
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- Figure 65: Attributes and positioning that matter most, by gender and income, August 2011
- Other factors that matter
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- Figure 66: Other factors that matter, by gender and age, August 2011
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- Figure 67: Other factors that matter, by gender and income, August 2011
- Preferences and purchase behavior
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- Figure 68: Preferences and purchase behavior, by gender and age, August 2011
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- Figure 69: Preferences and purchase behavior, by gender and income, August 2011
SymphonyIRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Fresh bread
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures – fresh bread
- Brand map
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- Figure 70: Brand map, selected brands of fresh bread buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 71: Key purchase measures for the top brands of fresh bread, by household penetration, 2010*
- Bagels/bialys
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures – bagels/bialys
- Brand map
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- Figure 72: Brand map, selected brands of bagels/bialys buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 73: Key purchase measures for the top brands of bagels/bialys, by household penetration, 2010*
Appendix—Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Personal bread usage
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- Figure 74: Personal bread usage, by gender, August 2011
- Household bread usage
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- Figure 75: Household usage of tortillas, taco shells, and tostadas, by age, February 2010-March 2011
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- Figure 76: Household usage of tortillas, taco shells and tostadas, by household income, February 2010-March 2011
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- Figure 77: Household English muffin usage, by household income, February 2010-March 2011
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- Figure 78: Household English muffin usage, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2010-March 2011
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- Figure 79: Household croissant usage, by age, February 2010-March 2011
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- Figure 80: Household croissant usage, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2010-March 2011
- What matters to bread consumers
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- Figure 81: Other factors that matter, by gender, August 2011
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- Figure 82: Other factors that matter, by household income, August 2011
Appendix—Trade Associations
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