Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Sales growth remains flat after 2008 spike
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- Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, in millions at current prices, 2007-12
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales and fan chart forecast of bread, at current prices, 2007-17
- Fresh loaf bread remains the dominant category
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- Figure 3: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, segmented by type, in millions, 2010-12
- Market factors
- Health and wellness trend driving demand for BFY options
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- Figure 4: Reasons for “watching diet” among the 52% doing so, October 2009-December 2010
- Low consumer confidence undermining growth
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- Figure 5: Consumer confidence trends, 2007-12
- Companies, brands, and innovation
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- Figure 6: FDMx sales of bread in the U.S., in millions, 2011 and 2012
- Group Bimbo realizes some gains with Mrs. Baird’s and Bimbo
- The consumer
- Buns and BFY options among most popular categories in the U.S.
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- Figure 7: Types of bread purchased in last year, May 2012
- Incidence of use and changes in spending
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- Figure 8: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, May 2012
- Taste and texture can trump price
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- Figure 9: Factors considered “very important” or “somewhat important” in bread purchase decision, May 2012
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- What types of products are likely to drive future gains?
- Which attributes tend to have the most influence on consumers?
- Which consumer segments tend to use the most bread?
Insights and Opportunities
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- Gluten-free products could drive significant gains for some manufacturers
- Ethnic breads could drive growth
- Work to create loyalty among parents and kids
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Make it Mine
- Trend: Survival Skills
- 2015 Trend: Old Gold
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Sales remain largely unchanged in 2012
- Niche markets offer growth opportunities
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- Figure 10: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, at current prices, 2007-17
- Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales and fan chart forecast of bread, at current prices, 2007-17
- Walmart sales
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Most “watching” their diet
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- Figure 13: Watching diet and reasons for doing so, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
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- Figure 14: Incidence of being overweight or obese in the U.S. among adults aged 18+, 2005-10
- Growth of 25-34 segment will drive long-term demand
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- Figure 15: U.S. population, by age, 2006-16
- Parents and kids a key segment for marketers
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- Figure 16: Households, by presence and ages of children, 2011
- Figure 17: Households, by presence of children, 2001-11
- Rapid growth of minority segments will drive demand
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- Figure 18: Bread, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011-March 2012
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- Figure 19: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
- Pricing a key consideration when targeting minorities
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- Figure 20: Median household income, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2010
- Languishing recovery could undermine sales growth
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- Figure 21: Unemployment trends, 2007-12
- Figure 22: Consumer confidence trends, 2007-12
- 2012 summer drought likely to result in higher bread prices
Competitive Context
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- Restaurants could pose an important competitive threat in the future
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- Figure 23: Adjusted foodservice and drinking places sales, in millions, January 2008-July 2011
Segment Performance
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- Tortillas and refrigerated category growing faster than overall sales
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- Figure 24: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, segmented by type, 2010-12
Segment Performance—Fresh Loaf Bread
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- Key points
- Retail sales slightly above 2008 levels in current terms
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- Figure 25: Total U.S. retail sales of fresh loaf bread, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—Fresh Rolls, Buns, and Croissants
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- Key points
- Rolls, buns, and croissants growing slightly faster than overall market
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- Figure 26: Total U.S. retail sales of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—Tortillas
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- Key points
- Tortilla sales expected to increase slightly in 2012
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- Figure 27: Total U.S. retail sales of tortillas, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—In-store Baked Breads
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- Key points
- 2012 sales expected to remain flat
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- Figure 28: Total U.S. retail sales of in-store baked breads, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—Fresh Bagels, Bialys, English Muffins
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- Key points
- Sales reflect general trend seen in other categories
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- Figure 29: Total U.S. retail sales of fresh bagels, bialys, and English muffins, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—Refrigerated/frozen Bread, Bagels, Bialys, and English Muffins
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- Key points
- Sales expected to increase considerably in 2012
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- Figure 30: Total U.S. retail sales of refrigerated/frozen bread, bagels, bialys, and English muffins, at current prices, 2007-12
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Most sales made in supermarkets
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- Figure 31: Total U.S. retail sales of bread and bread products, by channel, 2010 and 2012
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- Figure 32: Total U.S. retail sales of bread in supermarkets, at current prices, 2007-12
- Figure 33: Total U.S. retail sales of bread in other channels, at current prices, 2007-12
- A majority purchases all types of bread at grocery
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- Figure 34: Outlets where bread is purchased, by bread type, May 2012
Retail Channels—Natural Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Insights
- Sales of bread in the natural channel
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- Figure 35: Natural supermarket sales of bread, at current prices, 2009-11*
- Figure 36: Natural supermarket sales of bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-11*
- Natural channel sales of bread by segment
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- Figure 37: Natural supermarket sales of bread and bread products, by segment, 2009 and 2011*
- Natural channel sales of organic bread
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- Figure 38: Natural supermarket sales of bread, organic vs. non-organic, 2009 and 2011*
- Brands of note
- Natural channel sales of gluten-free bread
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- Figure 39: Natural supermarket sales of gluten-free bread, 2009 and 2011*
- Figure 40: Natural supermarket sales of bread loaves segment, by gluten free and organic, 2009 and 2011*
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Grupo Bimbo remains dominant
- Private label sales up 0.5% as others report losses
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- Figure 41: FDMx sales of bread among leading manufacturers in the U.S., 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Fresh Loaf Bread
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- Key points
- Gains driven largely by brands with diverse offerings
- Merita wins with BFY offering
- Bimbo positioned to appeal to value-oriented shoppers
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- Figure 42: FDMx sales of fresh loaf bread, by leading companies, 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Fresh Rolls, Buns, and Croissants
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- Key points
- Ball Park drives some gains for Sara Lee
- Martin’s realizes gains with bun offering
- Sweet gains for King’s Hawaiian
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- Figure 43: FDMx sales of fresh rolls/buns/croissants, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Tortillas
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- Key points
- Gruma S.A. makes some inroads with Carb Balance product
- La Banderita drives gains for Ole Mexican with authentic offering
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- Figure 44: FDMx sales of tortillas, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Bagels, Bialys, and English Muffins
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- Key points
- Thomas’ remains dominant, continues to grow with mainstream offerings
- Private label driving gains
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- Figure 45: FDMx sales of bagels, bialys, and English muffins, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Refrigerated/frozen Bread, Bagels, Bialys, and English Muffins
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- Key points
- Lancaster Colony Corp. posts gains with Sister Schubert’s
- Udi’s wins with gluten-free offering
- Whole-grain
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- Figure 46: FDMx sales of refrigerated/frozen bread, bagels, bialys, and English muffins, rolling 52 weeks 2011 and 2012
Innovations and Innovators
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- Key points
- Bimbo’s innovation slows considerably in 2012
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- Figure 47: New bread and bread products launches among top 10 firms, 2007-12
- BFY claims often associated with new launches
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- Figure 48: Top 10 claims most commonly associated with product launches, 2007-12
- Premium private label products help retailers drive gains
- BFY dessert breads could drive future gains
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview of the brand landscape
- Sara Lee
- Television advertising
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- Figure 49: Sara Lee television ad, 2012
- Website
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- Figure 50: Sara Lee website, 2012
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- Figure 51: Sara Lee website, 2012
- Mission Foods
- Television advertising
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- Figure 52: Mission Foods tortilla ad, 2011
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- Figure 53: Mission Foods tortilla ad, 2011
- Website
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- Figure 54: Mission Foods website, 2012
Incidence of Use and Changes in Spending
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- Key points
- Young adults are a key segment for bread brands
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- Figure 55: Bread, by age, January 2011-March 2012
- Heaviest users tend to come from low- and middle-income households
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- Figure 56: Bread, by household income, January 2011-March 2012
- More than one in four report spending more on whole-grain and wheat
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- Figure 57: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, May 2012
- Buns, whole-grain, wheat are the most popular types of bread in the U.S.
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- Figure 58: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by age, May 2012
- Young adults more likely to report increased spending across categories
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- Figure 59: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by age, May 2012
- Households with kids more likely to report increased spending
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- Figure 60: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by presence of children in household, May 2012
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- Figure 61: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by presence of children in household, May 2012
Brand Usage Trends
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- Key points
- Sara Lee usage trends up as Grupo Bimbo takes control of the brand
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- Figure 62: Bread, February 2007-March 2012
- Use of Bimbo brand bagels trending up
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- Figure 63: Bagels, February 2007-March 2012
Grains, Sweetener, Calories, Fat, Local, Premium
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- Key points
- A majority of shoppers are influenced by “whole-grain”
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- Figure 64: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by gender, May 2012
- Few differences between age segments in demand for whole-grain
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- Figure 65: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by age, May 2012
- Sweeteners and fat tend to be less influential than grain content
- Local, organic, and reduced calorie more likely to drive purchase among 18-34s
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- Figure 66: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by age, May 2012
Influence of BFY Attributes vs. Price
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- Key points
- “High in fiber” claims often drive purchase decisions
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- Figure 67: Influence of health and price-related attributes, May 2012
- Price another key consideration, especially for young adults
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- Figure 68: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by age, May 2012
- Low-sodium claims, vitamin fortification more important in lower-income households
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- Figure 69: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by household income, May 2012
Taste, Texture, and Brand vs. Price, Labels
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- Key points
- Taste, texture, brand, and nutritional labels especially important to women
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- Figure 70: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by gender, May 2012
- Nutritional labeling particularly important to upper-income consumers
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- Figure 71: Other factors that impact the purchase decision, by household income, May 2012
- Taste perceptions less likely to be “very important” to young adults
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- Figure 72: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by age, May 2012
- Price and texture tend to be more important to parents
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- Figure 73: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by presence of children in household, May 2012
- Figure 74: Other factors that impact the purchase decision, by gender, May 2012
Bread-related Attitudes—Taste and Quality
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- Key points
- Most prefer taste of whole-grain; buy higher-quality breads
- Most like to experiment and try breads from other cultures
- Most report buying higher-quality breads
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- Figure 75: Taste and quality-related attitudes, May 2012
- Young adults more likely to experiment and try breads from other cultures
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- Figure 76: Taste and quality-related attitudes, by age, May 2012
- Upper-income households more likely to experiment
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- Figure 77: Taste and quality-related attitudes, by household income, May 2012
Bread-related attitudes—Health, Price, Shopping
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- Key points
- Most think whole-grain breads and those high in fiber are healthier
- Many want coupons and tend to shop for discounts
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- Figure 78: Health, price, and shopping-related perceptions, May 2012
- Women more likely to view whole-grain as “healthier than white bread”
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- Figure 79: Health, price, and shopping-related perceptions, by gender, May 2012
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Hispanics somewhat more likely to report spending more on whole-grain
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- Figure 80: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
- Demand for flatbreads and gluten-free products high among Asians
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- Figure 81: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
- Minorities more likely than whites to frequently purchase BFY options
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- Figure 82: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
- Asians, blacks, and Hispanics more likely to report buying higher quality
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- Figure 83: Bread-related behavior and attitudes, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
Custom Consumer Groups—Gender and Age
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- Young men and women aged 55+ more likely to be influenced by fiber
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- Figure 84: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by gender and age, May 2012
- Young men more likely to be influenced by BFY attributes
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- Figure 85: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by gender and age, May 2012
- Young men and women both more likely to be influenced by low price
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- Figure 86: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by gender and age, May 2012
- Young men somewhat more likely to report buying higher quality
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- Figure 87: Taste and quality-related attitudes and behaviors, by gender and age, May 2012
IRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Fresh bread and rolls—U.S.
- Overview of fresh bread and rolls
- Fresh bread
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—fresh bread
- Brand map
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- Figure 88: Brand map, selected brands of fresh bread buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 89: Key purchase measures for the top brands of fresh bread, by household penetration, 2011*
- All other fresh rolls/buns/croissants
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants
- Brand map
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- Figure 90: Brand map, selected brands of all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 91: Key purchase measures for the top brands of all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants, by household penetration, 2011*
- Bagels/bialys
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—bagels/bialys
- Brand map
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- Figure 92: Brand map, selected brands of bagels/bialys buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 93: Key purchase measures for the top brands of bagels/bialys, by household penetration, 2011*
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 94: Outlets where bread is purchased, by age, May 2012
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- Figure 95: Outlets where bread is purchased, by household income, May 2012
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- Figure 96: Outlets where bread is purchased, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
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- Figure 97: Outlets where bread is purchased, by gender and age, May 2012
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- Figure 98: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by household income, May 2012
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- Figure 99: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by household income, May 2012
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- Figure 100: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by household income, May 2012
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- Figure 101: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by household income, May 2012
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- Figure 102: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by household income, May 2012
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- Figure 103: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by age, May 2012
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- Figure 104: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by household income, May 2012
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- Figure 105: Health, price, and shopping-related perceptions, by age, May 2012
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- Figure 106: Health, price, and shopping-related perceptions, by household income, May 2012
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- Figure 107: Bread usage behavior and attitudes (b), by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
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- Figure 108: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
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- Figure 109: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
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- Figure 110: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
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- Figure 111: Outlets where bread is purchased, by gender and age, May 2012
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Appendix: Trade Associations
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