Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Report change
- ONS data and definitions
- Financial definitions
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Grocers’ retail sales (incl. VAT), 2007-17
- Market factors
- Companies, brands and innovation
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- Figure 2: Leading ten grocers’ shares of grocers’ sector sales, 2010 and 2011
- Price and competition
- The consumer
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- Figure 3: Usage of the Big Four supermarkets for the main weekly shop, 2008-12
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- Figure 4: Customer base of main shoppers, by age and socio-economic group, August 2012
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- Figure 5: Big Four supermarkets, customer profile, 1996, 2006 and 2012
- Online
- Non-foods
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- Figure 6: Most frequently bought non-food items bought from a supermarket or grocery store, September 2012
- Attitudes to buying non-foods
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- Figure 7: Attitudes to buying non-foods in the supermarket used for the main shop, September 2012
- Services
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- Figure 8: Services bought or would consider buying from a supermarket, September 2012
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- Figure 9: Leading food retailers: Major services offered, November 2012
- Brands
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- Figure 10: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the food retail sector, August 2012
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- Non-foods – once the driver, now where?
- Food – Are C-stores the future?
- Problem businesses – what are the lessons?
- Price – is it being taken out of the equation?
- Where next for food retailers?
Trend Application
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- Trend: Home of the Sense
- Trend: Carnivore, Herbivore, Locavore
- 2015 trend: Access Anything, Anywhere
The Market Environment
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- Key points
- Inflation
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- Figure 11: Consumer prices indices: annual percentage changes, Sep 2011-Sep 2012
- Figure 12: Year-on-year change in CPI for food, beverages and tobacco, and year-on-year change in grocers’ sector sales, 2007-11
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- Figure 13: Consumer prices indices: annual percentage changes, selected categories, Sep 2011-Sep 2012
- Figure 14: Annual % change in CPI versus annual % change in average weekly earnings, Sep 2011-Aug/Sep 2012
- Consumer confidence
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- Figure 15: Consumer confidence levels, Nov 2011-Oct 2012
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- Figure 16: Gross domestic product: Annual % change, Q1 2010-Q2 2012
Consumer Spending
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- Key points
- Consumer spending on food, beverages, and tobacco
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- Figure 17: Consumer spending on in-home food, beverages, and tobacco, (inc vat), 2007-12
- Consumer spending on non-food FMCGs
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- Figure 18: Consumer spending on personal care, household, and over-the-counter pharmaceutical products, 2007-12
- Total potential grocery market
- Consumer spending on general merchandise
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- Figure 19: Consumer spending on general merchandise categories, 2007-12
Sector Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Growth lags inflation
- Forecasting to 2017
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- Figure 20: Grocers’ retail sales (incl. VAT), 2007-17
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- Figure 21: Grocers’ retail sales, at current and constant prices, 2007-17
- Technical note
- The Mintel forecast
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Virtual airport supermarket
- Asda identifies ‘hot’ areas for students
- Personalised pricing in-store
- In-store scan and shop
- Enhancing the in-store experience
- Tesco’s prestige beauty halls
- Drive-through grocery stores
- ‘Food deserts’ create an opportunity for innovation
- NFC-enabled grocery shop and order wall
- Sainsbury’s opens in-hospital pharmacies
- That’s entertainment
Channels of Distribution
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- Key points
- Distribution of spending on food, beverages, and tobacco
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- Figure 22: Distribution of consumer spending on food, beverages, and tobacco by retail channel/outlet type, 2010-11
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- Figure 23: Distribution of consumer spending on food, beverages, and tobacco by retail channel, 2007-11
Space Allocation Summary
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- Key points
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- Figure 24: Space allocation of food and non-foods, October 2012
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- Figure 25: Asda, Tesco space allocation estimates, October 2012
- Figure 26: Sainsbury’s, Morrisons, Waitrose, Co-op, Aldi, Lidl, space allocation estimates, October 2012
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- Figure 27: Asda, Sainsbury, Tesco: Sales area by format, 2012
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- Figure 28: Major food retailers: Total sales area estimates, 2012
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- Figure 29: Major food retailers: product mix (inc vat), 2011/12
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- Figure 30: Major food retailers sales density by broad product area**, 2011/12
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- Figure 31: Major category market sizes, 2011
- Figure 32: Major food retailers, market shares, by category, 2011
The Retailers – Financials and Outlets
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- Key points
- The Big Four
- Some retailers soar
- …while others face difficulties
- Revenues
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- Figure 33: Leading 25 grocers, by revenues (excl vat), 2007-11
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- Figure 34: Leading grocers: CAGR in revenues, 2007-11
- Outlet numbers
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- Figure 35: Leading retailers: Outlet numbers, 2007-11
- Sales per outlet
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- Figure 36: Leading retailers Average annual sales per outlet (excl vat), 2007-11
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- Figure 37: Leading retailers: CAGR in average annual sales per outlet, 2007-11
- Sales area and average store sizes
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- Figure 38: Selected leading retailers: Total sales area and average store size, 2007-11
- Figure 39: Selected leading retailers: CAGR in total sales area, 2007-11
- Sales densities
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- Figure 40: Selected leading retailers: Average annual sales per sq m, 2007-11
- Figure 41: Selected leading retailers: CAGR in sales per sq m, 2007-11
- Operating profits and margins
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- Figure 42: Selected leading retailers: Operating profits, 2007-11
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- Figure 43: Selected leading retailers: operating margins, 2007-11
Market Shares
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- Key points
- In brief: The top ten
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- Figure 44: Leading ten grocers’ shares of grocers’ sector sales, 2010 and 2011
- In detail: The top 20
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- Figure 45: Leading 20 grocers’ shares of grocers’ sector sales, 2007-11
- Technical note: Non-retail revenues
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- Figure 46: Leading grocers’ estimated percentage of turnover deriving from non-retail revenues, 2007-11
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- Figure 47: Leading grocers’ revenues, adjusted for estimated non-retail income, (excl. VAT), 2007-11
Online and Social Media
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- Key points
- The online market
- Online grocery sales
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- Figure 48: Online grocery sales, 2007-12
- Leading online grocers
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- Figure 49: Leading online grocers’ estimated revenues (excl. VAT) and shares of the online grocery sector, 2010 and 2011
- Online general merchandise
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- Figure 50: Leading grocers’ online general merchandise ranges, major categories, November 2012
- Profiling online visitors
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- Figure 51: Profile of visitors to leading grocery retailers’ websites, by age group, three month average to August 2012
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- Figure 52: Profile of visitors to leading grocery retailers’ websites, by socio-economic group, three month average to August 2012
- Figure 53: Profile of visitors to leading grocery retailers’ websites, by sex, three month average to August 2012
- Leading sites by visitor numbers
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- Figure 54: Leading food retail websites, by total unique visitors, three-month average to August 2012
- The consumer: Shopping online by category
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- Figure 55: UK: What has been bought online in the last 12 months, leading categories, May 2012
- The consumer: shopping online by device
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- Figure 56: UK: Percentage of consumers having shopped online (for any goods) in the last three months, July 2012
- Social media
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- Figure 57: UK: Social media websites visited, April 2012
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- Figure 58: Ways in which people have made contact with or share thoughts about new food products or brands, April 2012
- Figure 59: Reasons for online engagement with food brands, April 2012
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- Figure 60: Ways in which people have made contact with or share thoughts about new food products or brands, by demographics, April 2012
- Social media follower numbers
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- Figure 61: Leading retailers’ follower numbers on selected social media, October 2012
The Consumer – Retail Customer Profile Comparison
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- Key points
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- Figure 62: Age profile of main customers of leading food retailers, September 2012
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- Figure 63: Socio-economic profile of main customers of leading food retailers, September 2012
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- Figure 64: Lifestage profile of main customers of leading food retailers, September 2012
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- Figure 65: Regional profile of main customers of leading food retailers, September 2012
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- Figure 66: ACORN special group profile of main customers of leading food retailers, September 2012
The Consumer – Who Shops Where
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- Key points
- Main shop
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- Figure 67: Retailers used for main weekly shop, August 2012
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- Figure 68: Usage of the Big Four supermarkets for the main weekly shop, 2018-2012
- Customer profile by main shoppers
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- Figure 69: Customer base of main shoppers, by age and socio-economic group, September 2012
- Changes in customer profile, 1996-2012
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- Figure 70: Big Four Supermarkets, customer profile, 1996, 2006 and 2012
- Top-up shopping
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- Figure 71: Usage of outlets for top-up shopping, September 2012
- Profile of top-up customers
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- Figure 72: Customer profile of Top-up shoppers, September 2012
The Consumer – Grocery Shopping: Frequency, Location and Transport
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- Key points
- Frequency
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- Figure 73: Frequency of buying food, drink and household products, 2004-12
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- Figure 74: Average number of shopping trips PA, 2004-12
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- Figure 75: Frequency of buying food, drink and household products, 2004-12
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- Figure 76: Frequency of buying food, drink and household products, 2004-12
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- Figure 77: Regular and top-up grocery shopping trips, 2004-12
- Mode of transport
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- Figure 78: Mode of transportation used, 2004-12
- Types of outlets used
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- Figure 79: Type of outlets visited, 2008-12
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- Figure 80: Type of outlets visited regularly, 2008-12
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- Figure 81: Type of outlets visited occasionally, 2008-12
- Money spent
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- Figure 82: Average spend on grocery shopping, 2010 and 2012
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- Figure 83: Money spent on food and drink, and household products in the last 12 months, 2010-12
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- Figure 84: Money spent on food and drink, and household products in the last 12 months, 2010-12
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- Figure 85: Money spent on food and drink, and household products in the last 12 months, 2010-12
- Key factors in choosing a supermarket
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- Figure 86: Most important factors in choosing a supermarket, 2012
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- Figure 87: Important factors while shopping for groceries, 2004-12
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- Figure 88: Important factors while shopping for groceries, 2004-12
- Attitudes to grocery shopping
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- Figure 89: Attitudes towards shopping, 2004-12
Grocery Buying Habits – Recent Trends
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- Key points
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- Figure 90: I look out for more bargains (eg buy one get one free), March-September, 2012
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- Figure 91: I have switched from branded to cheaper own-label groceries, March-September 2012
- Figure 92: I plan my shopping more carefully to avoid food waste, March-September 2012
- And September?
The Consumer and Grocers’ Non-foods
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- Key points
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- Figure 93: Non-food items bought from a supermarket or grocery store, September 2012
- Who buys what
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- Figure 94: Profile of purchasers of non-foods, September 2012
- Numbers of items bought
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- Figure 95: Non-food items bought from a supermarket or grocery store, September 2012
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- Figure 96: Non-food items bought from a supermarket or grocery store, by repertoire of non-food items bought from a supermarket or grocery store, September 2012
- Products bought and shops used
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- Figure 97: Non-food items bought from a supermarket or grocery store, by usage of outlets for most of the households food and grocery shopping, September 2012
Consumers and Supermarket Services
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- Key points
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- Figure 98: Services bought or would consider buying from a supermarket, September 2012
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- Figure 99: Leading food retailers: Major services offered, November 2012
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- Figure 100: Principal supermarkets services bought or would be considered, September 2012
- Who uses them?
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- Figure 101: Profile of those who use, or would use, supermarket services, September 2012
- Services and retailers
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- Figure 102: Services bought or would consider buying from a supermarket, by usage of outlets for most of the households food and grocery shopping, September 2012
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- Figure 103: Services bought or would consider buying from a supermarket, by most popular usage of outlets for top-up shopping, September 2012
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- Figure 104: Services bought or would consider buying from a supermarket, by next most popular usage of outlets for top-up shopping, September 2012
Consumer Attitudes to Buying Non-foods
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- Key points
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- Figure 105: Attitudes towards buying non-food items in supermarkets or grocery stores, September 2012
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- Figure 106: Profile of consumers attitudes, September 2012
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- Figure 107: Attitudes towards buying non-food items in supermarkets or grocery stores, by usage of outlets for most of the households food and grocery shopping, September 2012
Advertising and Promotion
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- Key points
- Growth in ad spend slows
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- Figure 108: Main media advertising spend, by leading grocery retailers, 2008-11
- Spending relative to turnover
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- Figure 109: Leading grocers’ advertising spend as % of turnover, 2008-11
- Spending by media type
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- Figure 110: Leading grocers’ main media advertising distribution, by media, 2011
- Advertising content
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 111: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the food retail sector, August 2012
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 112: Attitudes by food retail brand, August 2012
- Brand personality
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- Figure 113: Food retail brand personality – macro image, August 2012
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- Figure 114: Food retail brand personality – micro image, August 2012
- Brand experience
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- Figure 115: Food retail brand usage, August 2012
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- Figure 116: Satisfaction with various food retail brands, August 2012
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- Figure 117: Consideration of food retail brands, August 2012
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- Figure 118: Consumer perceptions of current food retail brand performance, August 2012
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- Figure 119: Food retail brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, August 2012
- Brand index
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- Figure 120: Food retail brand index, August 2012
- Figure 121: Food retail brand index vs. recommendation, August 2012
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 122: Target groups, August 2012
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- Figure 123: Food retail brand usage, by target groups, August 2012
- Group One – Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – Individualists
Aldi
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- What we think
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 124: Aldi: Group financial performance, 2007-11
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- Figure 125: Aldi: Outlet data, 2007-11
- Retail offering
Asda
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- What we think
- Re-establishing its position at the lower end of the market
- Driving home the price message
- Building multi-channel capability
- Sales growth likely to slow
- Non-foods earmarked for further development
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 127: Asda Group Ltd: Group financial performance, 2007-11
- Figure 128: Asda Group Ltd: Outlet data, 2007-11
- Retail offering
Co-operative Group (Food)
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- What we think
- Share slipping
- Facing increasing c-store competition
- Greater emphasis on price
- Non-food
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 130: The Co-operative Food: Group financial performance, 2007/08-2011/12
- Figure 131: The Co-operative Food: Outlet data, 2007/08-2011/12
- Retail offering
Iceland Foods Ltd
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- What we think
- The curse of the coupons
- Online ahead
- Clearly targeted marketing
- International opportunities?
- Non-food offer lacking
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 133: Iceland Foods Ltd: Group financial performance, 2007/08-2011/12
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- Figure 134: Iceland Foods Ltd: Outlet data, 2007/08-2011/12
- Retail offering
Lidl/Kaufland (Schwarz Group)
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- What we think
- Can Lidl’s online non-foods offer be exported?
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- Figure 135: Schwarz Group: Lidl stores per million capita, 2011
- Prospects in Germany: Lidl
- Prospects for Kaufland
- Scaling back hard-discount in France
- Outpaced by Aldi in the UK
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 136: Schwarz Group: Group financial performance, 2007/08-2011/12
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- Figure 137: Schwarz Group: Outlet data, 2007/08-2011/12
- Retail offering
- Schwarz Group
- Lidl
- Kaufland
Marks & Spencer (food)
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- What we think
- How high is too high?
- Scope for Food On The Move?
- Non-food offer
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 139: Marks & Spencer (food): Group sales performance, 2007/08-2011/12
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- Figure 140: Marks & Spencer (food): Outlet data, 2007/08-2011/12
- Figure 141: Marks & Spencer (food): Food outlets by format, 2007/08-2011/12
- Retail offering
Ocado Ltd
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- What we think
- Offer is as strong as ever
- Losing share where it matters
- A long time coming
- New fulfilment centre facilitates push into general merchandise
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 142: Ocado Ltd: Group financial performance, 2006/07-2010/11
- Retail offering
Sainsbury’s
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- What we think
- Gaining market share through the downturn
- Driving general merchandise sales and space
- And convenience stores
- Online initiatives
- Quality and enhanced value credentials are working
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 144: Sainsbury’s supermarkets: Financial performance, 2007/08-2011/12
- Figure 145: Sainsbury’s supermarkets: Outlet data, 2007/08-2011/12
- Store formats
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- Figure 146: Sainsbury’s supermarkets: Outlet numbers and space by store size, 2011/12
- Retail offering
Spar Europe
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- What we think
- Background
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- Figure 148: Spar International: Year of entry, by country
- Company performance
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- Figure 149: SPAR International: Retail sales by country, 2007-11
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- Figure 150: SPAR International: Outlet data, 2007-11
- Retail offering
Tesco Plc
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- What we think
- What went wrong
- Recovery plans
- Marketing
- Price
- Online
- Stores
- Non-foods
- Banking
- Mobile phones
- Continental Europe
- Reasons to be optimistic
- Addendum
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 151: Tesco Plc: Group financial performance, 2007/08-2011/12
- Figure 152: Tesco Plc: Outlet data, 2007/08-2011/12
- Store formats
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- Figure 153: Tesco store portfolio by store size, Feb 2012 and Aug 2012
- Retail offering
Waitrose Ltd
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- What we think
- A deserving winner
- Convenience and online
- Non-food
- Overseas expansion
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 155: Waitrose Ltd: Group financial performance, 2007/8-2011/12
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- Figure 156: Waitrose Ltd: Outlet data, 2007/08-2011/12
- Retail offering
Wm Morrison Group
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- What we think
- Bringing new life to stores
- Non-food
- Tentative steps into e-commerce
- C-store push
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 158: Wm Morrison Group: Group financial performance, 2007/08-2011/12
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- Figure 159: Wm Morrison Group: Outlet data, 2007/8-2011/12
- Retail offering
Appendix – Consumer – Who Shops Where?
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- Figure 161: Usage of outlets for most of the households food and grocery shopping, by demographics, July/Aug 2012
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- Figure 162: Most popular usage of outlets for top-up shopping, by demographics, September 2012
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- Figure 163: Next most popular usage of outlets for top-up shopping, by demographics, September 2012
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Appendix – Consumers and Supermarkets Services
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- Figure 164: Most popular services bought or would consider buying from a supermarket, by demographics, September 2012
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- Figure 165: Next most popular services bought or would consider buying from a supermarket, by demographics, September 2012
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Appendix – Consumers and Grocers’ Non-foods
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- Figure 166: Most popular non-food items bought from a supermarket or grocery store, by demographics, September 2012
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- Figure 167: Next most popular non-food items bought from a supermarket or grocery store, by demographics, September 2012
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- Figure 168: Other non-food items bought from a supermarket or grocery store, by demographics, September 2012
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- Figure 169: Least popular non-food items bought from a supermarket or grocery store, by demographics, September 2012
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Appendix – Consumer Attitudes to Buying Non-foods
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- Figure 170: Most popular attitudes towards buying non-food items in supermarkets or grocery stores, by demographics, September 2012
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- Figure 171: Next most popular attitudes towards buying non-food items in supermarkets or grocery stores, by demographics, September 2012
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Appendix – The Consumer – Grocery Shopping: Frequency, Location and Transport
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- Figure 172: Frequency of buying food, drink and household products, by demographics, 2012
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- Figure 173: Frequency of buying food, drink and household products, by demographics, 2008
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- Figure 174: Mode of transportation used, by demographics, 2012
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- Figure 175: Mode of transportation used, by demographics, 2008
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Appendix – Further Analysis
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- Figure 176: Repertoire of non-food items bought from a supermarket or grocery store, by demographics, September 2012
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Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 177: Brand usage, August 2012
- Figure 178: Brand usage, August 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 179: Brand commitment, August 2012
- Figure 180: Brand commitment, August 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 181: Brand momentum, August 2012
- Figure 182: Brand momentum, August 2012 (continued)
- Figure 183: Brand diversity, August 2012
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- Figure 184: Brand diversity, August 2012 (continued)
- Figure 185: Brand satisfaction, August 2012
- Figure 186: Brand satisfaction, August 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 187: Brand recommendation, August 2012
- Figure 188: Brand recommendation, August 2012 (continued)
- Figure 189: Brand attitude, August 2012
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- Figure 190: Brand attitude, August 2012 (continued)
- Figure 191: Brand image – Macro image, August 2012
- Figure 192: Brand image – Macro image, August 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 193: Brand image – Micro Image, August 2012
- Figure 194: Brand image – Micro image, August 2012 (continued)
- Figure 195: Profile of target groups, by demographics, August 2012
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- Figure 196: Psychographic segmentation, by target group, August 2012
- Figure 197: Brand usage, by target groups, August 2012
- Brand index
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- Figure 198: Brand index, August 2012
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